Brian Kaysar - April 22,

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Brian Kayser, an avid baccarat player, has published scientific articles using mathematical modeling techniques. He used this training to scientifically analyze baccarat and develop winning betting strategies which he used at various tables all around the United States.

He currently resides in Colorado.

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2012 e-Edition
Copyright 2003 by Brian D. Kayser, Ph. D, Psy. D.
- All Rights Reserved

Library of Congress Catalog Card No: 2002109177
eBook ISBN:978-1-58042-440-0

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

Thank you for picking this book to learn how to play winning baccarat. This book is the end result of five years of scientific research and actual gaming experience at tables across the country.

Research has been a passion of mine for many years. I began my scientific research in 1969, and I published my last academic journal article in 1976. I then began a career in marketing research, working my way up from research analyst to owner of my own research company.

My scientific publications used mathematical models to examine psychological processes, such as achievement motivations. My interest has always been on practical applications of mathematical models, because they tell us how things work over time. They focus on the sequence of events, and they permit prediction of future events based on past events.

In 1985, I played my first hand of baccarat in Atlantic City. I knew little about the game, but I did know that the game had to be based on understandable mathematical principles. I began to keep a record of each shoe of baccarat I played. By 1989, I had 232 shoes recorded from first hand to last. Beginning in 1987, I tested various mathematical models to determine their fit to the data (the outcomes of baccarat hands). As you will see in this book, I found a model that accurately described the mathematics behind the game.

Knowing how the game works provided me with the means to examine betting strategies based on the mathematics. I tested the strategies both on computer programs and at the tables. In this book, I do my best to help you fully understand baccarat, so youll be an expert player. My advice is based on sound scientific research.

The betting strategies I present are based on the way baccarat works over an infinite number of games, not within a single game. This is important for you to keep in mind, because it affects how to make bets that maximize the chance to pick a winner (Bank or Player) within a game. Knowing what the probabilities of sequences of events (hands) are over an infinite number of games, you have a perspective that tells you how likely a given outcome (Bank or Player winner) will be at any point in one game. This book tells you what you can expect from that perspective. I hope that learning how all of this works will be a fun and rewarding experience for you.

Finally, to ensure the accuracy of my work, I hired a mathematical modeling expert at Cal Tech to independently review this work. Peer review of ones work is expected before publication in scientific journals, and I wanted this book to have the same type of peer review before I would release it for publication. The peer reviewer found no inaccuracies.

I hope that you will enjoy the book and the baccarat tables!

Welcome to the world of baccarat. Whether you have never played the game or are an experienced player, you will find this book will help make the game more enjoyable and profitable. You will learn how baccarat works and how to bet. Well do some practicing, and by the end you will be able to intelligently play every hand in a shoe. You will be able to play with confidence, because you will know all the ins and outs of the game.

Before we start, lets take a look at how the game is played. Baccarat is a card game, and it has two sides: the Bank and the Player. To understand baccarat, it helps to compare it to blackjack, a game with which most people are more familiar.

In blackjack, face cards count as 10, aces count as 1 or 11, and you try to get as close to 21 as you can. In baccarat, face cards (and 10s) count as 0, aces count as 1, and you try to get as close to 9 as you can.

In blackjack, you can decide how many cards to draw. In baccarat, you have no choice, because the rules determine the draw. If there is a draw, the most any side can get is just one card.

In blackjack, you hope to get 21 in two cards. In baccarat, you try to get a total of 9 in two cards (this is the highest card total you can ever get in two cards, because you ignore 10s and face cards, and you subtract 10 if you reach it). If you get a count of 9, thats called a natural . It cant lose. The other side may tie, however. A count of 8 is also called a natural, and it beats everything but a natural 9. Natural hands are great for you, because they prevent the other side from having a chance to draw to improve its hand.

In blackjack, you have to bet on your hand to win. In baccarat, you can bet either side to win, or even to tie. In fact, you dont have to bet every hand if you dont want to. You can sit and watch until you decide what you want to bet.

Both games are played out of a shoe. In baccarat, the casino normally uses eight decks (416 cards). There is an elaborate shuffling ritual before the cards are put in the shoe. They are cut after the shuffle, and the dealer then inserts a red plastic marker toward the end of the shoe. When this marker is reached during play, the hand after that will be the last hand for that shoe.

After theyre shuffled and marked, the cards are inserted into the plastic shoe (it does, in fact, resemble a shoe box). One card is then drawn from the shoe. Its value (1 to 10 for face cards) determines how many cards are then removed (burned) from the shoe. The shoe is now ready for play.