OECD - OECD Economic Surveys: Sweden 2019
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OECD (2019), OECD Economic Surveys: Sweden 2019 , OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c510039b-en .
This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and Development Review Committee (EDRC) of the OECD, which is charged with the examination of the economic situation of member countries.
The economic situation and policies of Sweden were reviewed by the Committee on 11 February 2019. The draft report was then revised in the light of the discussions and given final approval as the agreed report of the whole Committee on 1 March 2019.
The Secretariats draft report was prepared for the Committee by Christophe Andr, Jon Kristian Pareliusen and Hyunjeong Hwang, with contributions from Andres Fuentes Hutfilter, under the supervision of Vincent Koen. Secretarial assistance was provided by Sisse Nielsen.
The previous Survey of Sweden was issued in February 2017.
Basic Statistics of Sweden, 2017 |
|---|
(Numbers in parentheses refer to the OECD average)* |
 |
* Where the OECD aggregate is not provided in the source database, a simple OECD average of latest available data is calculated where data exist for at least 29 member countries. |
Source : Calculations based on data extracted from the databases of the following organisations: OECD, International Energy Agency, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Inter-Parliamentary Union. |
The expansion is strong. GDP has expanded at an average rate of close to 3% over the past five years (Figure A). The upswing has been broad-based, with robust consumption, investment and exports.
Unemployment has receded. Employment has grown steadily and the unemployment rate has fallen (Figure A). But jobseekers are increasingly low-skilled and immigrants, who struggle to find jobs.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.
StatLink https://doi.org/10.1787/888933943512
Economic growth will moderate as capacity constraints tighten. Growth will slow, as the economy now operates around full capacity and labour shortages appear in many sectors (Table A). Shrinking residential investment following housing price falls is a further drag on the economy. Exports are expected to remain solid as long as the global economy keeps expanding.
Global uncertainties weigh on the outlook. The global economic environment is laden with uncertainties. As a small open economy highly dependent on exports, Sweden is vulnerable to potential global shocks, such as further intensification in global trade tensions, a disorderly Brexit, stress in European sovereign bond markets, as well as domestic events such as a severe drop of the housing market.
Table A. Economic growth is projected to remain robust | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Percentage change, unless otherwise specified | |||
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
Gross domestic product | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Private consumption | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
Gross fixed capital formation | 3.5 | -0.7 | 1.4 |
Exports | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
Imports | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
Unemployment rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
Consumer prices | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
CPI with fixed mortgage rate (CPIF) | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Current account (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
General government fiscal balance (% of GDP) | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Source : OECD Economic Outlook, No. 104, updated based on available information as of 28-02-2019. |
Rising employment has contributed to enhancing well-being and reducing poverty. However, robust capital income growth has pushed up inequality over the past few years. Nevertheless, inequality remains low, albeit higher than in the other Nordic countries (Figure B). Amending tax rules for unlisted companies and property, without increasing the overall tax burden, could help hold back inequality.
Source : OECD Income Distribution Database (IDD).
StatLink https://doi.org/10.1787/888933943531
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