Black - A history of Britain, 1945 to Brexit

A HISTORY OF BRITAIN

1945 TO BREXIT

A HISTORY OF BRITAIN

1945 TO BREXIT

JEREMY BLACK

INDIANA UNIVERSITY PRESS

This book is a publication of

Indiana University Press

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Herman B Wells Library 350

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Bloomington, Indiana 47405 USA

iupress.indiana.edu

2017 by Jeremy Black

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No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. The Association of American University Presses Resolution on Permissions constitutes the only exception to this prohibition.

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Cataloging information is available from the Library of Congress.

ISBN 978-0-253-02972-0 (cloth)

ISBN 978-0-253-03018-4 (pbk.)

ISBN 978-0-253-02999-7 (e-bk.)

1 2 3 4 5 23 22 21 20 19 18

For Anthony Seldon

CONTENTS

PREFACE

FROM EMPIRE TO WHERE?

IN JUNE 2016, Britain voted to come out of the European Union (EU). Everyone rightly said that this was, and is, a pivotal historic moment. The book can in part be read as showing how Britain has got to this point. This entails looking at the postwar (postWorld War II) world, in particular the economic problems, political issues, and social changes leading up to Britain joining the Common Market or European Economic Community, the predecessor of the EU, in 1973. There was the deindustrialization that, without necessarily being linked to this, followed, as well as the more acute pressures arising from globalization, especially from the 1980s, notably the decline of industry, and as a related factor, of the old industrial areas, as well as the marked growth of the service economy, and the rise of London.

As a result of these and other factors, a metropolitan liberal elite emerged and came to dominate both the Conservative and the Labour parties, as well as Britain in general. In turn, there was disillusionment, notably with the rise of Scottish nationalism from the late 1960s, and later, what can be seen, in the vote to leave the EU, as the revolt of the English provinces, both rural and old urban. This vote has led to the probable reshaping of Britain, economically, socially, geographically, and politically, in the next ten or twenty years, a reshaping that will be deeply problematic. This summary provides a chronological dynamic for what is the first historical account of our new dramatically changing times.

Let us turn back to the start. Exhausted by war, Britain in 1945, nevertheless, was victorious and was still the worlds greatest empire. That was, and is, clear. Its subsequent path and destination have repeatedly been unsettled and uncertain, but they have been of consequence not only for Britain but also, to a degree, at the world scale. This is that history. Of course, the impact of the present on our understanding of the past is most readily apparent for recent history. The present to which this history appears to be trending changes constantly, and with those changes comes altering assessments of the past and of the significance of developments within it. This is the case not only in general but also with reference to particular topics such as environmental change or military history.

In the specific case of modern Britain, major developments in the 2010s, notably in Scottish politics and in the relations with the European mainland, led to a reading back and doing so very much looking for anticipations or, indeed, contrasts. So in the 2010s did Labours marked movement leftward and, separately, the high rate of demographic (population) growth. This then is a history from the mid-2010s of post-1945 Britain, and a history for the late 2010s. It is up to date and will also look to the future. This history will not require any prior knowledge of British history. The book will be largely designed for non-British, especially American, readers, but will also be pertinent for their British counterparts.

I have written before on parts of the period but not for more than a decade and not covering the period as a whole. Moreover, the nature of the present and our understanding of the past have both altered. The death of Tory Britain, which appeared readily apparent during the Blair government (19972007) after three successive Labour victories in general elections in 1997, 2001, and 2005 is no longer the case, or at least, not as far as England is concerned. Moreover, in 2016, the Conservatives took second place in the elections to the Scottish Parliament behind the Scottish National Party, pushing Labour into third place, results that earlier, and as recently as the early 2010s, would have seemed inconceivable. The current projections for the next British parliamentary election, assuming the revision of constituency boundaries that is due in order to bring constituency electorates into roughly consistent size, suggest a significantly larger Conservative majority.

I have benefited greatly from teaching the subject and from traveling widely in the British Isles, the latter taking me to many different environments, from Holy Communion service at Holy Trinity Dalston in London, with its largely black and markedly enthusiastic congregation, to the far reaches of the Outer Hebrides. I have also been fortunate to be able to meet and talk with several of those mentioned in this text including Kenneth Baker, Tony Benn, Alec Douglas-Home, Douglas Hurd, Edward Heath, John Major, Robert Runcie, Margaret Thatcher, and Jeremy Thorpe.

While thinking about and writing this book, I have discussed themes with a number of Members of Parliament (MPs), including Ben Bradshaw, Douglas Carswell, Greg Clark, Oliver Colvile, Graham Evans, Michael Gove, Damian Green, John Howell, Andrew Lansley, Julian Lewis, Oliver Letwin, David Lidington, Peter Luff, Gordon Marsden, Andrew Mitchell, and David Willetts, as well as with others, including Melvyn Bragg, Phil Collins, Richard Dales, Frank Kitson, William Salomon, Richard Scrivener, and Geoff Thould. Clearly, this is in part a personal account, but that is true of all recent history. I would like to thank Steve Bodger, George Boyce, Roger Burt, David Coleman, Eileen Cox, Bill Gibson, David Gladstone, Sergio Jos Rodrguez Gonzlez, Nick Lewis, Thomas Otte, Murray Pittock, Peter Spear, Peter Temple-Morris, Richard Toye, Nick White, and two anonymous readers for commenting on all or part of an earlier draft. I have benefited in considering this topic from opportunities to speak to the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the World Affairs Council, the University of Virginias Oxford program, and Sherborne School. I am most grateful to Jennika Baines for proving a most helpful publisher. Thanks also to Theresa Quill for creating the map.

This book is dedicated to Anthony Seldon, an invariably shrewd analyst and perceptive commentator on these years, and a scholar whose friendship I greatly appreciate.

PRIME MINISTERS FROM 1945

Clement Attlee, Labour, 194551

Winston Churchill, Conservative, 195155

Anthony Eden, Conservative, 195557

Harold Macmillan, Conservative, 195763

Alec Douglas-Home, Conservative, 196364