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Cowley Philip - Sex, Lies and Politics: the Secret Influences That Drive our Political Choices

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Cowley Philip Sex, Lies and Politics: the Secret Influences That Drive our Political Choices
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    Sex, Lies and Politics: the Secret Influences That Drive our Political Choices
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Sex, Lies and Politics: the Secret Influences That Drive our Political Choices: summary, description and annotation

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Intro; Praise; Title Page; Contents; Foreword by Stephen Bush; Introduction; List of contributors; 1: Slippery polls: why public opinion is so difficult to measure (Rob Johns); 2: Not getting worse: polling accuracy (Christopher Wlezien); 3: Why one in ten Britons support the Monetary Control Bill (even though it doesnt exist): public opinion and nonattitudes (Patrick Sturgis); 4: When people dont know what they are going to do: meaningless polling questions (Anthony Wells); 5: Information matters: public support for overseas aid (Jennifer van Heerde-Hudson)

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PRAISE FOR
SEX, LIES AND THE BALLOT BOX AND MORE SEX, LIES AND THE BALLOT BOX

Freakonomics for political junkies. The perfect book for anyone with even a passing interest in politics.

DAILY EXPRESS

Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box is a revelation, a paperback with an eye-catching title and essays by 51 political scientists Superb and eminently quotable.

THE TIMES

Smart, funny and illuminating in ways you could never dream of.

EMILY MAITLIS

This book is such an utterly brilliant idea it is ridiculous that no one has thought of it before. I cannot recommend it highly enough.

JOHN RENTOUL

Its like Sgt Pepper but for political geeks.

STEPHEN BUSH,NEW STATESMAN

A wonderful book of political well-I-nevers.

THE INDEPENDENT

It does it with such aplomb that no political homes Christmas tree should be without a copy neatly wrapped and waiting beneath it.

PROGRESS

This knits academic research with accessible and thought-provoking questions. If you love elections youll be hooked.

MAIL ON SUNDAY

The political book that everybodys talking about.

POLITICALBETTING.COM

Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box is as entertaining as it is thought-provoking.

INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY

Each chapter is a cruel and forensic expos of the ill-informed clichs of political reporting. This book must be banned.

GARY GIBBON, POLITICAL EDITOR,CHANNEL 4 NEWS

Finally, the one book you need before the election. This is a wonderfully eclectic collection of academic research translated into normal English.

THE INDEPENDENT

A terrific book Anyone interested in voting and elections would find it enlightening. If I could make it compulsory reading for people who follow my blog, I would

THE GUARDIAN

Contents

A long, long time ago, so long ago that the governing party had a parliamentary majority and Labour were in power in England, Scotland, Wales and London, I used to be a political activist.

One thing that hasnt changed, though, was that the then leader of the Labour Party was not particularly popular and many people, including those who had voted for Labour for a long time, were very angry about a central issue of party policy and were threatening to vote Liberal Democrat. Or Conservative. Or UKIP. Or Esther Rantzen. Or, really, anyone who wasnt the Labour Party.

A good friend, who was about my age, used to go door-knocking with me. Door-knocking is a process whereby party members come to your door and ask a bunch of intrusive questions in the hope that you will vote for them in order to make them go away. Door-knocking was a pretty miserable experience and we had a game: to see if we could predict the voting intention of the people we were bothering based only on their front doors and windows.

Over time, we became quite good at it the guessing, I mean and had an increasingly elaborate series of indicators that could predict, to a reasonable degree of accuracy, how someone would vote based on just their door. Little did we realise at the time, but we had cracked the fundamentals of political science.

Of course, we couldnt always match the voter to the door, and political scientists arent always right, either. Political scientists are the ones who told you that general election campaigns tend not to matter all that much, and that divided parties dont win elections. Well, OK, political journalists are the ones who told you that, but we only did it because a smart-looking person, or at least someone with the word professor in their job title, told us that first.

So whats the point of this book? Why should we trust these people when they explain to us, as they will over the coming topics, why door-knocking really works, why polling is so hard to get right, and why ethnic minority Britons tend to vote Labour?

Well, its partly of course that the alternative is listening to whatever half-baked reckons that any passing journalist can muster up from whoever happens to be willing to talk to us in the middle of the day. Just as we couldnt always get the door right, this is a book that will entertain you, inform you and will, at least, mostly be right.

Equally importantly, just as years and years after I let my membership lapse and even longer since I last knocked on a door, I still smile whenever I see a messy window box or a mattress on the front lawn, this is a book that will change how you think about politics. Even if sometimes the man with a mattress in his garden is voting for David Cameron after all.

Stephen Bush

Philip Cowley and Robert Ford

E lections are important. But that isnt the only reason some people spend their lives studying them.

Elections are also, at least some of the time, interesting, fun, shocking and exciting. Yet thats not why you should study them either.

Elections are always revealing. Those willing to dig into the detail of elections and voting will find human nature, in all its dizzying variety, contained within. That is why they are worth studying.

This is a book about elections not as a means of choosing governments but as a means to learn about the human condition, and about what makes us tick. If we would learn what the human race really is at bottom, claimed Mark Twain, we need only observe it at election time and the only thing that has changed since Twain wrote that in 1885 is that the more we learn about elections, the more we realise how accurate he was.

Like all things involving human beings, the reality of elections is often a long way from the myth and it isnt always uplifting. It can, for example, be a bit depressing to learn that candidates with surnames that begin with a letter that comes early on in the alphabet have an advantage over those lower down. Or that better-looking candidates will out-perform the ugly ones. Or that both Leave and Remain voters think Postman Pat is one of their own. All this is true, and is discussed in what follows.

But at the same time it is uplifting to discover that, for all the criticism voters can get (and give), they havent completely lost faith in politics despite all its flaws; they respond fairly coherently to what governments do, even if they dont know the details; most of them will get off the couch and vote if only someone asks them nicely; and they really do try their best, most of the time, to make sense of a difficult and confusing political world and vote in accordance with what they value most.

The genesis of this book lies in two earlier volumes, Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box and its imaginatively named follow-up, More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box. Both books were well received and sold well enough. (By this we mean they sold well for books on how people vote, not that J. K. Rowling became unduly concerned for her sales by the appearance of a rival.) This volume contains a combination of chapters from the two earlier books revised, where appropriate along with many entirely new chapters, largely, but not exclusively, dealing with Brexit. Indeed, so much has changed since the first book came out in 2014 that even some of the revised chapters have been so thoroughly altered that they are essentially new. Whatever ones views on Brexit, both the referendum and events since have been full of what educators call teachable moments, things that perfectly illustrate how people, on all sides, are not quite as rational or all-knowing as they like to think they are.

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