The new Coronavirus
and the largest economic recession post-World War ll
Prologue
Professor Ibrahim Gambari, Phd
The new Coronavirus
and the largest economic recession post-World War ll
Prologue
Professor Ibrahim Gambari, Phd
Luanda, August 2020
Technical Information
Original title: The new Coronavirus and the largest economic recession post-World War II
Author: Maria Lusa Perdigo Abrantes
Prologue: Professor Ibrahim Gambari
2020: Maria Lusa Perdigo Abrantes
1.st eBook edition: August 2020
Sponsor: Banco Prestgio, Luanda, Angola
American english translation: Guilherme Coulibaly
Graphic organization: AGuerra, Artes Grficas, Viseu
E book organization: Volupio, Estratgias de Comunicao, Viseu
ISBN: 978-989-54462-4-7
All rights reserved.
Reproduction, in whole or in part, is not authorized without the express authorization from the Author.
I dedicate this book to my children,
especially to my three birthday boys,
Tilucho , Antnio and Guilherme ,
as well as my son-in-law Hugo ,
who have their birthday on this date.
Save the day 6/5/2020
Prologue
As promised, here are my brief commentaries:
The new coronavirus pandemic had a more serious impact in the United States, in some european states, in England, and in Asian countries, than in Africa. ln reality, the full extent of the damage caused, or that could be caused, in Africa, is still to be evaluated. First, we havent done enough tests to check the true scale of infections and, therefore, the scope of human fatalities and the socio-economic damage that Covid-19 has caused, or may soon cause, on the continent. Second, our preparedness and capacity to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic are totally inadequate. Third, while Africa has escaped great devastation to their economies during the major global recession of 2008/9, caused by the financial crisis in the United States, because our continent was separate from it, no part of the world is spared from this global health pandemic. We are witnessing a global health pandemic, but the response to it has been almost completely national. Maybe in every continent, Africa would be less served by such a narrow approach to dealing with the pandemic. Our borders are porous, our communities are spread across borders, widely due to scarcity of financial resources to deal with the Nation by Nation pandemic.
So, we need concentric circles of response (national, regional, continental and global), that must also be carefully coordinated. ln that sense, West Africa is leading a regional approach, exemplified by the result of the Virtual summit of ECOWAS leaders, held on April 23, 2020. Even so, the decisions that they took need to be completely implemented in coordination with the African Union and global responses. Sixth, there is a real danger of African countries simply copying the blocking responses to Covid-19 in Europe and America, without recognizing our socio-economic circumstances and culture. The realities of poverty and the high percentage of people living hand to mouth; the needs of small farmers and small and medium-sized companies, the deficit in electricity and infrastructure; crowded urban populations and serious income loss, etc. ln addition, who would provide financing to the most vulnerable people during the weeks of locks? ln most countries, health insurance at the local, state, and national levels is already broke.
Finally, and despite the challenges mentioned above, there are opportunities in Africa from this pandemic.
First , we can avoid mistakes made by other people who have faced or are facing this terrible pandemic. For example, we must not rely too much on national solutions; instead, we can more effectively utilize our Regional Economic Communities and the African Union, especially for coordination, collaboration, and support.
Second , the Africa Free Trade Continental Area should receive a real boost as the urgency of self-
-sufficiency becomes real.
Third , the need to significantly increase the annual budgetary allocations for health sectors (including local and traditional medicine), education science, and technology has now been clearly demonstrated.
Fourth , the new Coronavirus pandemic and the African response have become an integral part of governance issues on the continent. This includes addressing national priorities; address inequalities in income and access to national resources, urban planning, gender violence, and observance of human rights.
Ibrahim Gambari(*), Phd
Former Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations and University Professor
(*) PROFESSOR IBRAHIM GAMBARI is the Co-Chair of the Commission on Global Security, Justice and Governance of The Hague Institute for Global Justice with the Stimson Center, from Professor Ahmed Belu University; is President and researcher/founder of the Savannah Center in Nigeria, Counselor of the Compact for Iraq; was Deputy Secretary- -General of United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Anan and Ban Ki- -moon; was Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Angola and Darfur, was Minister of Foreign Affairs of Nigeria, during the first Pres- ident Obasanjus presidency; taught at Georgetown University, John Hopkins, George Washington University, and Howard University, in the United States of America, at Hamed Belu University in Nigeria and was a researcher at the Brookings Institution. He was awarded the title of Commander of the Federative Republic of Nigeria.
Opinion
Dear Milucha,
(Maria Lusa Abrantes)
To me social distancing is critical for attening the curve. And flattening the curve is important to make certain that patients do not die because of a shortage of ICU beds or ventilators. In many countries and cities, the curve has been attenecl successfully for example in Wuhan and in New York. Thus, the main goal of social distancing has been achieved in many locations, or will soon be achieved in others.
But the pandemic will not die until either herd immunity is achieved, or until vaccination is available. This will take 12 to 18 months at least. Meanwhile, if we continue to apply a strict social distance, the economy will suffer terribly. In the USA, people from low income and people of color will suffer disproportionately. Thus, I support the reopening of the US economy, with the aim of trying to prevent another outbreak of infections that exceeds hospitals ability to provide beds and ventilators for ICU, but that does not try to reduce new infections to zero.
Charles(*)
Former member of the American Government and University Professor
(*) C HARLES F RANK , PHD in economics, was Assistant Deputy Secretary of President Carter for Economic and Social Affairs, was Acting President and First Vice-President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, was Vice President of GE Capital, was a Professor at Yale, Princeton, and Brooks Institute in the USA, among other functions.
Dear Milucha,
(Maria Lusa Abrantes)
Much success with your book. Here is my opinion.
Many people hope the economy will revive, but also believe there will be intense pain to be felt by lots of people.
I believe lockdown should continue; social distancing is imperative.
Lets be optimistic about more testing being made available before opening the economy.
Lets wish speedy success to scientists around the world working on a vaccine against Coronavirus and the discovery of other protective measures.
Science before politics!
Rarely have we been in greater need of hope.
