James E. Campbell - The presidential pulse of congressional elections
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Cover
| title | : | The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections |
| author | : | Campbell, James E. |
| publisher | : | University Press of Kentucky |
| isbn10 | asin | : | |
| print isbn13 | : | 9780813109268 |
| ebook isbn13 | : | 9780813170619 |
| language | : | English |
| subject | United States.--Congress--Elections, Elections--United States, Voting--United States, Political parties--United States, Presidents--United States. | |
| publication date | : | 1997 |
| lcc | : | JK1967.C25 1997eb |
| ddc | : | 324.973 |
| subject | : | United States.--Congress--Elections, Elections--United States, Voting--United States, Political parties--United States, Presidents--United States. |
Page i
THE Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections
Page ii
This page intentionally left blank
Page iii
Second Edition
JAMES E. CAMPBELL
THE UNIVERSITY PRESS OF KENTUCKY
Page iv
Publication of this volume was made possible in part
by a grant from the National Endowment for the Humanities.
Copyright 1997 by The University Press of Kentucky
Scholarly publisher for the Commonwealth,
serving Bellarmine College, Berea College, Centre
College of Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky University,
The Filson Club Historical Society, Georgetown College,
Kentucky Historical Society, Kentucky State University,
Morehead State University, Transylvania University,
University of Kentucky, University of Louisville,
and Western Kentucky University.
All rights reserved
Editorial and Sales Offices: The University Press of Kentucky
663 South Limestone Street, Lexington, Kentucky 40508-4008
01 00 99 98 97 5 4 3 2 1
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Campbell, James E., 1952
The presidential pulse of congressional elections / James E.
Campbell. 2nd ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-8131-0926-4 (pbk : alk. paper)
1. United States. CongressElections. 2. ElectionsUnited
States. 3. VotingUnited States. 4. Political partiesUnited
States. 5. PresidentsUnited States. I. Title.
JK1967.C25 1997
324.973dc21
97-18724
This book is printed on acid-free recycled paper meeting
the requirements of the American National Standard
for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials.
Manufactured in the United States of America
Page v
To my friends and teachers
Page vi
This page intentionally left blank
Page vii
List of Tables and Figures ix
Acknowledgments xiv
Introduction 1
Part 1. Theories of Midterm Elections
1 The Midterm Question 7
2 The Premises of Surge and Decline 22
3 The Propositions and Evidence of Surge and Decline 40
4 The Theory of the Midterm Referendum 67
Part 2. The Presidential Pulse
5 The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline 87
6 Evidence from National Elections 116
7 Evidence in Congressional Districts 143
8 Evidence in the Electorate 172
9 Surge and Decline in Subpresidential Elections 189
10 The Presidential Pulse in the 1990s 207
11 Reflections on the Presidential Pulse 234
Appendix 1 Presidential Vote and House-Seat Regressions 258
Appendix 2 Robust Regression of National Evidence 260
Notes 264
References 296
Index 311
Page viii
Page ix
Tables
| 1.1. Midterm Seat Losses for the President's Party and Decline in Congressional-Election Turnout, 19441996 | 10 |
| 2.1. Prevailing Short-Term Forces as Measured by the Mean of the Candidate Likes and Dislikes Index, 19521992 | 33 |
| 3.1. Midterm Seat Losses by Margin of Prior Presidential Victory, 19021994 | 42 |
| 3.2. Presidential-Election-Year Seat Gains by Margin of Presidential Victory, 19001996 | 43 |
| 3.3. Strong Partisans in Presidential and Midterm Electorates, 19561994 | 58 |
| 3.4. Independents in Presidential and Midterm Electorates, 19561994 | 59 |
| 3.5. Partisan-Defection Rates in Presidential and Midterm Elections for Partisans of the Advantaged and Disadvantaged Parties, 19561994 | 60 |
| 3.6. Review of the Evidence: Ten Surge-and-Decline Propositions | 66 |
| 4.1. Referenda Equations of Midterm Losses, 19461994 | 70 |
| 4.2. Seat Changes Explained by the Exposure Thesis, 19381994 | 81 |
| 5.1. Nonparametric Correlations between Reported Turnout and Intensity of Partisanship, 19521994 | 89 |
| 5.2. Surge and Decline in Uncontested Seats, 19521994 | 114 |
| 6.1. The Presidential Vote's Effect on Midterm Change in the Democratic Congressional Vote, 19021994 | 120 |
| 6.2. The Presidential Vote's Effect on Midterm Change in Democratic House Seats, 19021994 | 122 |
| 6.3. The Presidential Vote and Midterm Referenda Effects on Midterm Change in Congressional Votes and Seats for the President's Party, 1946 1994 | 124 |
| 6.4. The Presidential Vote and Midterm Presidential Popularity Effects on Midterm Change in Congressional Votes and Seats for the President's Party, 19461994 | 126 |
| 6.5. The Presidential Vote's Effect on Presidential Year Change in the Democratic Congressional Vote, 19001992 | 130 |
Page x
| 6.6. The Presidential Vote's Effect on Presidential Year Change in Democratic House Seats, 19001996 | 132 |
| 6.7. Trend in the Presidential Vote's Effect on Midterm Change in Democratic House Votes and Seats, 19021994 | 133 |
| 6.8. Trend in the Presidential Vote's Effect on Presidential Year Change in Democratic House Votes and Seats, 19001996 | 134 |
| 6.9. The Fourteen Districts in Which Republicans Appeared Safe in 1972 but Lost in 1974 | 141 |
| 7.1. The Presidential Vote's Effect on the Congressional Vote of the Winning Presidential Party in the Presidential Election Year, 1976 and 1984 | 150 |
| 7.2. The Presidential Vote's Effect on Change in the Congressional Vote of the Winning Presidential Party in the Presidential Election Year, 1976 and 1984 | 151 |
| 7.3. Presidential-Coattail Seats in 1976 | 154 |
| 7.4. Presidential-Coattail Seats in 1984 | 155 |
| 7.5. The Effect of the Prior Congressional-Vote Gain on Midterm Change in the Congressional Vote of the President's Party, 1978 and 1986 | 162 |
| 7.6. Midterm Seat Losses for the Presidents Party in 1978 |
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