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Nicholas Jepson - In Chinas Wake: How the Commodity Boom Transformed Development Strategies in the Global South

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In the early 2000s, Chinese demand for imported commodities ballooned as the country continued its breakneck economic growth. Simultaneously, global markets in metals and fuels experienced a boom of unprecedented extent and duration. Meanwhile, resource-rich states in the Global South from Argentina to Angola began to advance a range of new development strategies, breaking away from the economic orthodoxies to which they had long appeared tied.In Chinas Wake reveals the surprising connections among these three phenomena. Nicholas Jepson shows how Chinese demand not only transformed commodity markets but also provided resource-rich states with the financial leeway to set their own policy agendas, insulated from the constraints and pressures of capital markets and multilateral creditors such as the International Monetary Fund. He combines analysis of China-led structural change with fine-grained detail on how the boom played out across fifteen different resource-rich countries. Jepson identifies five types of response to boom conditions among resource exporters, each one corresponding to a particular pattern of domestic social and political dynamics. Three of these represent fundamental breaks with dominant liberal orthodoxyand would have been infeasible without spiraling Chinese demand. Jepson also examines the end of the boom and its consequences, as well as the possible implications of future China-driven upheavals. Combining a novel theoretical approach with detailed empirical analysis at national and global scales, In Chinas Wake is an important contribution to global political economy and international development studies.

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IN CHINAS WAKE In Chinas Wake HOW THE COMMODITY BOOM TRANSFORMED DEVELOPMENT - photo 1

IN CHINAS WAKE

In Chinas Wake

HOW THE COMMODITY BOOM TRANSFORMED DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH

Nicholas Jepson

Columbia University Press New York Columbia University Press Publishers - photo 2

Columbia University Press

New York

Columbia University Press

Publishers Since 1893

New York Chichester, West Sussex

cup.columbia.edu

Copyright 2020 Columbia University Press

All rights reserved

E-ISBN 978-0-231-54759-8

Names: Jepson, Nicholas, author.

Title: In Chinas wake : how the commodity boom transformed development strategies in the global south / Nicholas Jepson.

Description: New York : Columbia University Press, [2019] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2019016862 | ISBN 9780231187961 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780231187978 (pbk. : alk. paper)

Subjects: LCSH: Developing countriesEconomic conditions. | Economic developmentDeveloping countries. | Natural resourcesDeveloping countries. | ChinaCommerce. | ChinaForeign economic relationsDeveloping countries. | Developing countriesForeign economic relationsChina.

Classification: LCC HC59.7 .J48 2019 | DDC 338.9009172/4dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019016862

A Columbia University Press E-book.

CUP would be pleased to hear about your reading experience with this e-book at .

Cover image: bergserg / Getty Images

Contents
Figures

Terms of trade for selected metals versus manufactures, 19602016

Historical commodity price indexes, in constant 2010 dollars

Copper prices compared to net G7 and Chinese copper imports

China base metal imports as a share of world total

Chinese demand compared to that of the rest of the world (in billions of dollars)

China compared to the rest of the world: soybean imports and soybean index prices, 20002016

Brazil and Argentina export purchasing power index, 19952013

Brazils debt service, 20002011

Fuel commodity price indexes, 19952014

Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela resource revenue index (in real), 19952014

Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela general government expenditure indexes (in real), 19952014

Ecuador oil exports (in billions of dollars), 20002016

Angolas and Kazakhstans total merchandise exports relative to oil prices, 19982014

Angola revenue and expenditure indexes (in real), 20002014

China copper and aluminum ores and concentrates imports (in billions of dollars), 20002014

China copper and aluminum imports (in billions of dollars), 20002014

Aluminum and copper price indexes, 20002015

Colombia, Jamaica, Peru, and South Africa export purchasing power indexes

Real price indexes for energy and metals, 19802018

Tables

South Korea and China energy intensity (in British thermal units) at comparable levels of gross domestic product

Energy intensity for China and selected economies, 2015

Qualitative comparative analysis data by case

Analysis of necessary conditions for the outcome BRK

Typology of commodity boom political-economic trajectories among Southern resource-exporting states

Political-economic structure of ideal types under commodity boom conditions, 20022013

Oligarchic-extractivist ideal type and cases

Ecuadorian presidents since 1992

Official development assistance as a percentage of gross national income

Oil as a percentage of total merchandise export value

Official development assistance received (percentage of gross national income), 20022012

Natural resources as a proportion of total exports

Chinas share of global consumption, 2012

Chinas contribution to global consumption growth, 20022012

Change in liberalization, 2001/20022013/2014

Qualitative comparative analysis truth table

Analysis of necessary conditions

Ecuador interviews

Zambia interviews

Jamaica interviews

T his book began life back in 2011 as a half-formed idea for a PhD project comparing Bolivias and Zambias experiences of the commodity boom era. In Latin America, many of the pink tide governments seemed to be leveraging natural resource export booms in service of new policy initiatives and development strategies, in the process breaking with the liberal economic orthodoxy that had held sway across the region since the 1980s. My starting point was to wonder why this was happening in (some of) Latin America but no similar shifts had occurred among the resource-exporting states of sub-Saharan Africa. Zambia, where Michael Sata was about to win the presidency on a populist platform recalling aspects of some of the Latin American cases, looked like a promising place to begin.

In any event, Satas Patriotic Front government failed to institute any pink tidelike political economic reorientation. But in my efforts to understand why Zambia did not go the way of Bolivia (or Ecuador or Argentina), I began to broaden the focus of my researchfirst, on how and why the ability of states to set their own development agendas appears to wax and wane during times of flux in the global political economy (with the rise of China playing the starring role in our current eras upheavals); and second, on the ways in which changing global conditions play out at the national level, as they alter the terrain for statesociety relations in countries across the world. The result was a much wider project, encompassing fifteen resource-exporting states (including fieldwork in threeZambia, Ecuador, and Jamaica), culminating initially in a dissertation submitted to the University of Bristol in late 2015.

Since then, what eventually would become this book has gone through a series of revisions and updates to reach its current form, particularly taking into account the end of the boom (an outcome that was not yet definite in 2015) and its effects in some of the countries surveyed. Nevertheless, the books focus remains very much on the boom itself, understood in the abstract as a world-historical phenomenon, but one which has had profound, concrete impacts on the lives of a large percentage of the worlds population, not least across the global South.

Over its various stages the majority of this book was researched and written at the universities of Bristol (School of Sociology, Politics, and International Studies) and Leeds (School of Politics and International Studies), and now completed at the University of Manchesters Global Development Institute. Thanks go to all these institutions for providing me the opportunity to work in stimulating and supportive research environments. I owe a debt of gratitude especially to my two PhD supervisors at Bristol, Jeff Henderson and Malcolm Fairbrother, for allowing me the leeway to pursue such an ambitious doctoral project. Both were extraordinarily generous with their time and support. More than anyone else, Jeff has provided steadfast guidance, assistance, and mentorship, both during my time at Bristol and beyond, without which neither the dissertation nor the book would have been possible. Malcolms interventions continually pushed me to improve my work and were especially crucial in helping me to shape the methodological aspects of the book.

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