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IN CHINAS WAKE
In Chinas Wake
HOW THE COMMODITY BOOM TRANSFORMED DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH
Nicholas Jepson
Columbia University Press
New York
Columbia University Press
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New York Chichester, West Sussex
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Copyright 2020 Columbia University Press
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E-ISBN 978-0-231-54759-8
Names: Jepson, Nicholas, author.
Title: In Chinas wake : how the commodity boom transformed development strategies in the global south / Nicholas Jepson.
Description: New York : Columbia University Press, [2019] | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019016862 | ISBN 9780231187961 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780231187978 (pbk. : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Developing countriesEconomic conditions. | Economic developmentDeveloping countries. | Natural resourcesDeveloping countries. | ChinaCommerce. | ChinaForeign economic relationsDeveloping countries. | Developing countriesForeign economic relationsChina.
Classification: LCC HC59.7 .J48 2019 | DDC 338.9009172/4dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019016862
A Columbia University Press E-book.
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Cover image: bergserg / Getty Images
Contents
Figures
Terms of trade for selected metals versus manufactures, 19602016 |
Historical commodity price indexes, in constant 2010 dollars |
Copper prices compared to net G7 and Chinese copper imports |
China base metal imports as a share of world total |
Chinese demand compared to that of the rest of the world (in billions of dollars) |
China compared to the rest of the world: soybean imports and soybean index prices, 20002016 |
Brazil and Argentina export purchasing power index, 19952013 |
Brazils debt service, 20002011 |
Fuel commodity price indexes, 19952014 |
Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela resource revenue index (in real), 19952014 |
Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela general government expenditure indexes (in real), 19952014 |
Ecuador oil exports (in billions of dollars), 20002016 |
Angolas and Kazakhstans total merchandise exports relative to oil prices, 19982014 |
Angola revenue and expenditure indexes (in real), 20002014 |
China copper and aluminum ores and concentrates imports (in billions of dollars), 20002014 |
China copper and aluminum imports (in billions of dollars), 20002014 |
Aluminum and copper price indexes, 20002015 |
Colombia, Jamaica, Peru, and South Africa export purchasing power indexes |
Real price indexes for energy and metals, 19802018 |
Tables
South Korea and China energy intensity (in British thermal units) at comparable levels of gross domestic product |
Energy intensity for China and selected economies, 2015 |
Qualitative comparative analysis data by case |
Analysis of necessary conditions for the outcome BRK |
Typology of commodity boom political-economic trajectories among Southern resource-exporting states |
Political-economic structure of ideal types under commodity boom conditions, 20022013 |
Oligarchic-extractivist ideal type and cases |
Ecuadorian presidents since 1992 |
Official development assistance as a percentage of gross national income |
Oil as a percentage of total merchandise export value |
Official development assistance received (percentage of gross national income), 20022012 |
Natural resources as a proportion of total exports |
Chinas share of global consumption, 2012 |
Chinas contribution to global consumption growth, 20022012 |
Change in liberalization, 2001/20022013/2014 |
Qualitative comparative analysis truth table |
Analysis of necessary conditions |
Ecuador interviews |
Zambia interviews |
Jamaica interviews |
T his book began life back in 2011 as a half-formed idea for a PhD project comparing Bolivias and Zambias experiences of the commodity boom era. In Latin America, many of the pink tide governments seemed to be leveraging natural resource export booms in service of new policy initiatives and development strategies, in the process breaking with the liberal economic orthodoxy that had held sway across the region since the 1980s. My starting point was to wonder why this was happening in (some of) Latin America but no similar shifts had occurred among the resource-exporting states of sub-Saharan Africa. Zambia, where Michael Sata was about to win the presidency on a populist platform recalling aspects of some of the Latin American cases, looked like a promising place to begin.
In any event, Satas Patriotic Front government failed to institute any pink tidelike political economic reorientation. But in my efforts to understand why Zambia did not go the way of Bolivia (or Ecuador or Argentina), I began to broaden the focus of my researchfirst, on how and why the ability of states to set their own development agendas appears to wax and wane during times of flux in the global political economy (with the rise of China playing the starring role in our current eras upheavals); and second, on the ways in which changing global conditions play out at the national level, as they alter the terrain for statesociety relations in countries across the world. The result was a much wider project, encompassing fifteen resource-exporting states (including fieldwork in threeZambia, Ecuador, and Jamaica), culminating initially in a dissertation submitted to the University of Bristol in late 2015.
Since then, what eventually would become this book has gone through a series of revisions and updates to reach its current form, particularly taking into account the end of the boom (an outcome that was not yet definite in 2015) and its effects in some of the countries surveyed. Nevertheless, the books focus remains very much on the boom itself, understood in the abstract as a world-historical phenomenon, but one which has had profound, concrete impacts on the lives of a large percentage of the worlds population, not least across the global South.
Over its various stages the majority of this book was researched and written at the universities of Bristol (School of Sociology, Politics, and International Studies) and Leeds (School of Politics and International Studies), and now completed at the University of Manchesters Global Development Institute. Thanks go to all these institutions for providing me the opportunity to work in stimulating and supportive research environments. I owe a debt of gratitude especially to my two PhD supervisors at Bristol, Jeff Henderson and Malcolm Fairbrother, for allowing me the leeway to pursue such an ambitious doctoral project. Both were extraordinarily generous with their time and support. More than anyone else, Jeff has provided steadfast guidance, assistance, and mentorship, both during my time at Bristol and beyond, without which neither the dissertation nor the book would have been possible. Malcolms interventions continually pushed me to improve my work and were especially crucial in helping me to shape the methodological aspects of the book.