CONTENTS
PREFACE
The year 1988 can be seen as the opening chapter of a second era of an India-China dtente, the first attempt having collapsed spectacularly in 1959. Three decades of engagement has not only transformed India-China relations at the bilateral level it is no longer only about a long undefined and undemarcated border but the relationship is intersecting with and being impacted by complex changes in Asia and the world. The balance sheet of this phase has drawn a range of verdicts and even fierce disagreements. For many observers, it has not gone far enough in solving old problems and disputes, nor has it precluded new differences from cropping up. Indeed, the recent crisis in eastern Ladakh and the lapse into medieval violence on the night of June 15, 2020 shook the foundations of the era of engagement. For others, it has attained something that most large neighbours have historically found difficult to achieve a degree of stability and a modicum of economic interdependence. Most, however, agree that the past casts a long shadow and the emerging world order has brought the relationship to a crossroad where choices being made today will set in course events that could profoundly impact Indias economy, security and the regional order. It is imperative that Indias policymakers get this right.
My foray into the India-China relationship began in 2007. It soon led to two co-authored books in 2009, which were received positively by the foreign office, strategic community, and, to my delight, professional China watchers. I have approached this fascinating interstate relationship primarily from a geopolitical and historical perspective, rather than as a Sinologist. Approaching this subject from a policy-relevant and historical vantage point has allowed me to address questions and themes that might not evoke the attention of most area studies scholars. My broader interest in diplomatic history and strategic studies have also shaped how I perceive the interactions between these two large countries. It has also made me sensitive to the big picture as well as the international and geopolitical setting for the bilateral relationship.
The book is based on my work on various aspects of India-China relations over the past decade. It hopes to provide an informative and nuanced glimpse into the key issues that shape India-China relations, the motivations and interests of both sides, and how they are learning to cope with each others rise on the world stage. What distinguishes this book from most work on India-China relations is its quest to engage with a broad gamut of foreign policy themes. Whether it is the complicated history and the intricacies of the border dispute including the recent tensions on the Himalayan frontier, the changing US-China relationship, the geopolitics of Greater Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific, Chinas growing connectivity footprint in the region, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and a changing world order, or the conundrum of formulating a far-sighted China policy, the book casts a wide net in unpacking India-China relations. But perhaps the key reason for bringing this work to a larger audience is its policy relevant character. Each chapter responds to debates in the strategic community conversations that have remained largely confined to an elite community of scholars, analysts, journalists, and former officials. This book has been planned to bring those themes to the public square.
If there is one overriding message in this book it is that India and China are poised to intersect on several fronts and issues. This is not a relationship that is likely to be eclipsed despite the many distractions and domestic priorities that will occupy Indian and Chinese leaders for the foreseeable future. And, while they may not become friends, India and China can learn to sensibly manage their complex relationship and evolve their existing modus vivendi to incorporate a framework where a gentler rivalry or competition is handled maturely and at the same time does not inhibit the pursuit of their common or overlapping interests.
The book has been divided into three, hopefully coherent, sections; a structure that enables readers to choose topics that most piques their interests. The opening section dives into the past to understand the roots of the India-China territorial dispute and the reasons and context for their armed clash in 1962. That phase of our history has never been seriously debated by Indians and our inherited convictions about the Himalayan frontiers have often come in the way of an honest appraisal of the past. Until we do so, it would be difficult to learn the correct lessons or imagine a settled frontier with China. The section also looks at the negotiating postures over the decades and reveals why a seemingly straightforward settlement continues to elude both Delhi and Beijing. Finally, I trace the origins of the recent crisis in eastern Ladakh and the challenge of restoring peace and tranquility to the Himalayan frontiers.
The second section explores the intersection of the India-China relationship with dizzying changes in the international order. It engages with themes such as the rocky transition towards a multipolar world, the nature of competition between US and China, the resurgence of Eurasia, Chinas geopolitical re-orientation after 2013, and the role of BRICS in promoting non-western approaches to globalization and development. It is important for the reader to get a pulse of these broader themes since Indias China policy will continue to evolve in a changing and turbulent international environment. Keeping an eye on the questions of world order is, thus, crucial for crafting sound policy as well as engaging in effective debates on India-China relations.
The final section engages with the broader debates in India by weighing in on high policy and strategy including debates over military doctrines that are most relevant for managing regional security. This theme is also closely linked to the type of roles that India wants to play in the emerging world order. Although many insist India can no longer afford to straddle different regions in a competitive world order, its geopolitical and civilizational identity as an Asian, Indian Ocean and a Eurasian power implies Delhi will look in multiple directions as it adapts itself to a multipolar world. It not only examines the recent ideas and plans of connectivity that have emerged as new faultlines but also possible opportunities for innovative cooperation between India and China in the future. Finally, the section delves into the challenges, opportunities, and risks confronting Indias policymakers as they look at various options in crafting a new equilibrium with a rising China.
JUST LIKE SEVEN decades ago when the dramatic re-emergence of India and China, after their prolonged and traumatic encounter with colonialism, would transform this regions geopolitical landscape, the India-China equation is once again poised to influence the course of Asia. And the fate of this relationship is far from preordained. There are forces that are bringing both countries to craft a tenuous co-existence and stabilise a fragmenting world order. There are also circumstances that are bringing new frictions and differences to the fore as India and China pursue their regional interests and ambitions, often oblivious and insensitive to each other. Many believe the relationship is destined to sour. So far, both leaderships have chosen to delicately manage this competition-cooperation seesaw, although recurring border crises in the past decade have repeatedly questioned whether Delhi and Beijing can maintain such a balancing act for much longer.
