Jim Chalmers - Glory daze : how a world-beating nation got so down on itself

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Contents

For Laura

Acknowledgements

Anyone who has done the work that I have; had privileged access to the people I have; kept the confidences I have; seen the classified information I have; and trusted and been trusted by the most senior people in a national government like I have, thinks carefully before penning their thoughts in a book. Well-motivated people told me not to; others urged me on. I hope the former group understand the lengths Ive gone to in order to protect confidential conversations and to tell a story to be proud of. As for the latter group, I hope I have justified their support and encouragement. The way I see it, if any part of this book serves to improve and advance the conversation about the relationship between our economic success and our national identity, then it will be worth the long nights and early mornings I have invested in it.

Its an imperfect account of the imperfect miracle Australians achieved together in beating a global recession and reforming our economy despite determined opposition. It gives credit where it is dueto the people and their national governmentand apportions blame where it must. It also tries to give some perspective on political life, not just from the point of view of the most senior politicians in the country, but also from the viewpoint of those who serve and work alongside them.

I will never forget what it was like to work with my colleagues from the Treasurers office, or what I learned from their camaraderie and commitment. So this is also a tribute to their contribution to Australia and its economy. We were fortunate to work for an extraordinary Treasurer, Wayne Swan, someone whom history will treat more kindly than the contemporary commentary would suggest. Nobody I have come across in politics has a fiercer belief in the fair go in Australia and the ordinary people whose hard work makes our economy strong. Its a belief shared by his friend and our Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, who Swan describes as the most determined warrior for Labor values in the partys history. What an honour it was to serve them both, and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd too, during the direst economic times in eighty years.

Like Australias response to the Global Financial Crisis itself, this book is a team effort. To appropriately capture and describe my appreciation for the people who helped me write it would take more than the total number of pages that follow. But as a start, I need to single out Claudia Crawford for her very substantial help with the economic story and facts; Oliver Browne for assistance with the chronology of events in Europe and the United States; Chris Barrett, Amanda Sayegh and Ian Davidoff for supporting the project from day one and following through with ideas and recollections as well as comments on every twice-drafted word; Fergus Maguire and Michael Cooney who provided expert feedback on every chapter as well; Geoff Walsh, Leigh Sales and Dennis Glover who lent their experience and wisdom to the writing process; plus my family and friends who encouraged me in this endeavour. Also, a shout-out to Norbert Greulich, a high school teacher who, almost two decades ago, instilled in me a love of modern history and the enduring desire to help shape it one day.

Special thanks to my publishers at Melbourne University Publishing, for believing in the project from the first time I pitched it to them, then for coaxing and cajoling an anxious first-time author through the various hoops and deadlines. I appreciate Louise Adlers enthusiasm from her first email from Germany; especially value the dedicated, patient advice of Sally Heath, who read multiple drafts and offered intelligent feedback at each stage; and I thank Helen Koehne for her invaluable suggestions as well. The whole team at Melbourne University Publishing was helpful and professional throughout. The usual disclaimer applies: any errors or missteps in the text are the fault of the author alone.

The book is dedicated to my wife, Laura Chalmers, who planned our wedding while it was being written, and read my drafts during our Byron Bay honeymoon and at other times when sleep beckoned after fifteen-hour days in the Prime Ministers Office. Her support, encouragement and love throughout the course of this book are just one part of her support, encouragement and love in our broader lives. Without her and the encouragement of those close to me I wouldnt have the confidence or drive to begin this book, let alone finish it.

I wrote most of it over January and February 2013 from a breezy book-lined home office in Logan City, to the South of Brisbane, in a Queenslander on the elevated fringes of Daisy Hill forest. In my unique line of sight is thick bushland that stretches for miles. On the horizon is a uniform canopy of eucalypts punctuated by one that is half as tall again, standing proudly and conspicuously above the fray. That feels to me a bit like Australia, standing tall in the world but largely unnoticed by the locals. I hope this book helps to explain why that is the case. And why it matters.

Jim Chalmers

Logan City, Queensland

April 2013

The Quandary

T he five years between the end of 2007 and the end of 2012 saw around thirty million people shunted into unemployment around the world, pushing the jobless rate to a peak of 10 per cent in the United States, over 8 per cent in the United Kingdom, close to 12 per cent in the euro area, and 26 per cent in countries such as Spain and Greece. Personal wealth fell by trillions of dollars worldwide. Millions of American homes were foreclosed. More than thirty developed economies including the US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, Japan and Canada fell into deep recession, where many remain, while many others are yet to claw back lost ground. Advanced economies lost around $1 trillion of economic output. The economies of UK, Spain, Italy and the euro area as a whole shrank by 3, 6, 7.6 and 2.6 per cent respectively, having grown by 16, 19, 6 and 12 per cent in the five years prior.

Share markets fell by 54 per cent in New York, 49 per cent in London and 62 per cent in Tokyo. Over $35 trillion was wiped off global share markets. In the United States, 477 banks failed. Lehman Brothers imploded. AIG and Citigroup were bailed out by taxpayers in the spiritual home of capitalism, along with corporate behemoths including Chrysler and General Motors. In the United Kingdom, financial giants RBS, Lloyds and Northern Rock got a 37 billion government cash infusion. Guarantees were put in place so that the risk once borne by private companies was now worn by national balance sheets. Policy interest rates reached zero-bounds in the US, Canada, Japan, UK and the euro area, and central banks in the US, Europe and Japan engaged in quantitative easing; a fancy name for printing more money.

Longer and longer lines formed outside banks, and cash savings went under beds. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets and many took their own lives, some from Wall Street window ledges. Cities burned and shopfronts were smashed in London, Athens, Paris and Rome, and popular movements set up camp in places such as Zuccotti Park, New York City. Once-popular prime ministers and presidents resigned or their governments were destroyed. Communities bent, then snapped, under the weight of joblessness and crime. The gap between the top and bottom of society widened further. A new generation of poor and dispossessed have yet to learn what it is to be full, secure or to have parents who work.

Gross government debt ballooned, from 74 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across advanced economies in 2007 to 110 per cent in 2012, with gross debt in Greece, Italy and Portugal reaching 171 per cent, 126 per cent and 119 per cent respectively. Countries tallied up trillions in bailouts and stimulus, and skyrocketing unemployment payments and other benefits. A combination of this and years of lazy budgeting meant that on the heels of the first crisis came another; this time it was not created on Wall Street in the United States but in the treasuries of Europe, and especially Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, jeopardising the future of the European Union. This sovereign debt crisis meant entire countries risked defaulting on loans. In response, radical austerity measures were imposed on confused, and then furiously resistant, citizens.

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