Captain R. Gregory Carl - Search Theory And U-Boats In The Bay Of Biscay

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Text originally published in 2003 under the same title.

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SEARCH THEORY AND U-BOATS IN THE BAY OF BISCAY

by

R. GREGORY CARL

Captain, USAF

Contents

I would like to thank my advisor, Dr. Ray Hill, my reader, Dr. J.O. Miller and AFIT PhD candidate Maj. Lance Champagne. Their guidance and individual perspectives provided a chorus of reason without which I could not have completed this thesis effort on time. I have thoroughly enjoyed my time at AFIT and my work with them each. I also want to give Maj. Champagne special thanks for his friendship and for allowing me to use his baseline Bay of Biscay model comprised of thousands of lines of JAVA code which he masterfully authored.

I would also like to thank Dr. George Haritos and Col. T.S. Kelso, both former AFIT commandants, for encouraging me to attend the AFIT Graduate School of Engineering and Management as a student in the first place; I shall never forget their mentorship and investment in me as an Air Force officer.

I would like to thank my classmates for their friendship and exchange of ideas during our courses; they remind me of the value of teamwork and the importance of professionalism. I hope to cross paths with them again out in the big blue.

I would like to thank my children, whose unconditional love continues to be a source of unending encouragement and light in my life.

I would like to thank my wife; God gave me a very special woman indeed to be so patient, sacrificing, and supportive. She is my soul mate, and I love her with all my heart.

Finally, I wish to thank the Lord for his eternal love and unmerited favor towards me. Trusting in him has allowed me access to his friendship and enabled me to fulfill the desires of my heart.

Briefing for an Anti-Submarine Patrol (HBMSO, 1943:100).

Illustration of Crossover Barrier Patrol System (Koopman, 1999).

British Poster Showing a Sunderland Flying Boat (HBMSO, 1943:5).

Sample Lateral Range Curves (Fundamentals of SAR, 2002).

Parallel Search Pattern (Fundamentals of SAR, 2002).

Creeping Line Search Pattern (Fundamentals of SAR, 2002).

Square Search Pattern (Fundamentals of SAR, 2002).

Sector Search Pattern (Fundamentals of SAR, 2002).

Barrier Patrol Search Pattern (Fundamentals of SAR, 2002).

Screenshot of Bay of Biscay Simulation Graphics.

Scenario One Analysis of Sightings by Pattern (20 Iterations).

Scenario One Analysis of Sightings by Pattern (30 Iterations).

Scenario TwoOverlapping Search Regions (Separated for Clarity).

Scenario Two Analysis of Sightings by Pattern (30 Iterations).

Scenario One Means ComparisonAll Pairs (20 Iterations).

Scenario One Means ComparisonAll Pairs (30 Iterations).

Scenario Two Means ComparisonAll Pairs (30 Iterations).

Threats to our nations resources and forces are becoming increasingly lethal and mobile. Therefore, our ability to locate and interdict these threats is more important than ever. Search theory is one tool that is vital to countering the increasing threat. This research presents a multi-agent simulation, built around the allied search for U-boats in the Bay of Biscay during World War II, which extends several classic search theory algorithms. Comparison of techniques is based on the effectiveness of finding high-valued, mobile assets. A JAVA-based multi-agent simulation model is designed, built and tested, and used to demonstrate the existence of differing emergent behaviors between search patterns currently used by the United States military.

Given the relative increase in military weapons lethality and mobility during World War II, it became clear to the allies that they needed to invest scientific effort into the process of search. From this effort arose the concept of search as a unique organism, possessing its own structural properties and obeying its own physical laws. Nowhere were the consequences of studying search more critical than the battle of the seas. Prior to World War II, references to search theory in the scientific literature were scarce. Since that time, the volume of published material on the subject would fill many bookshelves.

To date, most search theory study has focused either on analytical models of specific situations requiring rigid assumptions, or, as in the case of search and rescue, operational experiments aimed at obtaining detection probabilities for a variety of scenarios. Analytical search theory results provide bounds on empirical results. This research introduces an agent-based simulation approach to the subject of offensive search operations in combat. Generally, the value of combat simulation is measured in terms of insights gained through experimentation. Agent-based simulation enables insights with regards to the emergent behavior of the individual combatants, groups of combatants, or the system as a whole. Emergent behavior for the purposes of this research is system behavior, not explicitly programmed, arising from local interactions between agents. Such behavior with respect to search effectiveness is investigated within the context of a historical case study involving offensive search.

The U-boat war from World War II provides a valuable case study for the application of search theory in that detailed analyses on this long-lasting facet of the great conflict is not only available, but can be verified historically. The allies, most notably the British, given the geographical fact that the island of Great Britain was highly dependent upon merchant shipping for much-needed supplies, were greatly concerned about effectively countering the U-boat threat. If unchecked in the North Atlantic, U-boats had the ability to impart potentially crippling losses to international shipping. One location with a particularly high concentration of U-boats was the Bay of Biscay, through which U-boats transited between occupied French ports and the North Atlantic. The U-boats were most vulnerable during their Bay transits due to the coastal constraints of England and Ireland to the North and Spain to the South.

British allied command realized that conducting effective airborne offensive search operations in the Bay could hold the key to offsetting the threat. The allies combined analytical insights, operational experience, and intelligence information to form a basic search patrol methodology applied in the Bay of Biscay to include the first offensive search patternbarrier patrol search. Since it was believed that aircraft maximized sighting distance by approaching at 45 degrees to U-boat tracks, this search pattern involved running NW-SE and NE-SW across some assigned coverage area (U-boats generally maintained east-westerly transit routes to cross the Bay).