Nik Nanos - The Age Of Voter Rage: Trump, Trudeau, Farage, Corbyn & Macron – The Tyranny Of Small Numbers

First published in 2018

Second printing, 2018

by Eyewear Publishing Ltd

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London, W1H 1PJ

United Kingdom

Graphic design by Edwin Smet
Cover image by iStock, Nanos license
Author photograph by Jake Wright
Printed in England by TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall

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2018 Nik Nanos

The moral right of Nik Nanos to be identified as author of this work has been asserted in accordance with section 77 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988

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The editor has generally followed Canadian spelling and punctuation at the authors request.

Set in Bembo 13 / 16,5 pt
ISBN 978-1-911335-66-5
ebook ISBN 978-1-912643-07-3

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NIK NANOS

is a Canadian pollster, data scientist and business strategist. He is the Founding Chairman of Nanos Research and has among the most distinguished records for reliability in research in the polling industry. He is the pollster of record for the Globe and Mail and CTV News, and also designed and oversees the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index. Nik is a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC, a research associate professor at the State University of New York in Buffalo and the Vice Chair of Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada.

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The current state of democratic dialogue in many societies is, in a word, troubled. The anger of voters is complex, with different causes in different democracies. The globalization of trade has led to change and put jobs at risk, while automation is replacing jobs of the past. Many people are unemployed, underemployed or getting paid less than they used to. It should be no wonder that some feel as if the establishment has fundamentally failed to provide either economic stability or the hope of upward income mobility. The outcome of this lack of faith is a lashing out at politicians, governments, businesses and the like, and a searching out of anti-establishment candidates who whip up citizens and mobilize the angry vote to punish the establishment.

As a researcher and observer of public opinion, I am often inspired by the nuance and sophistication of the views of citizens. However, the emergence of fake news, the increasing fuzziness of the truth and the economic despair and anger of the marginalized are rewiring democracy and reshaping public opinion. The new battlegrounds are not in town halls and neighbourhoods, but on social media and the Internet, ready to be manipulated and disrupted by anyone so inclined.

Though unpopular with some, I dedicate this book to journalists. I believe the only thing standing between the truth and a lie in our democracies today is a journalist. The courts are too slow to correct politicians mid-stride in a campaign, and expecting politicians to self-correct is delusional that leaves journalists as the seekers and frontline protectors of the truth. This is not an easy task. In a world where the business model for quality news is under threat, journalists and news organizations have to recapture the confidence of citizens and cut a clear line between news opinion and news fact.

I have no answers, but I do have a deep respect for journalism as a profession and a hope that journalists can be the impartial vanguard to help citizens make informed decisions. Wishful thinking? Perhaps.

Inconceivable! That single word encapsulates the thoughts of many about the current state of democracy. Donald Trump is president of the United States. Justin Trudeau is prime minister of a majority government in Canada. The United Kingdom voted for Brexit. Theresa May nearly lost the election to a newly-radical Labour Party. Emmanuel Macron quit the French Socialist Party, created a new movement and six months later won the presidency and a majority in the National Assembly. Each one of those events was an unanticipated outcome that rocked the popular political wisdom. Many of these contests were like watching a car crash in slow motion with voters being strangely attracted and repulsed at the same time. For both winners and losers, there was astonishment in what just happened.

With xenophobic populism gaining momentum in numerous democracies, many have heralded the arrival of a new right-wing political wave. The reality, however, is much more complex than a simple swing to the right. Here we will explore the age of voter rage: how the marginalized and the margins are rewiring democracy. Rage is an intense emotion, ready to surface at the slightest provocation. It manifests itself in the seemingly mild-mannered and calm person who snaps in anger when something goes wrong. Like in road rage, one moment everything is normal, then the traffic system doesnt work, the traffic lights are ill-timed, the other drivers are behaving badly and a driver is furious because they cant move forward. Voter rage is similar. A growing number of citizens across many countries believe they cant move forward. Their desire for better lives for themselves and their children is seemingly being thwarted by a system that isnt working and by others who arent following the rules. This is the fundamental unspoken truth. In this world, xenophobia and racism are symptoms of a more endemic malaise founded in economic insecurity, pessimism and anger.

Countries enter election seasons and everything seems normal at first. There are political rallies, debates, platforms, media interviews and then something snaps and an unpredicted outcome occurs. Voter rage in itself isnt new. In its more classical sense, it is a common part of democracy. It is about changing governments. People want change when governments govern poorly, are in power for too long or lose touch with the priorities of the citizenry. In this case, democracy isnt changing or being rewired; voters just want a new path. But when people are enraged, they are more willing to be led by emotion and to take risks.

Why is this age of voter rage, then, a new age or an age at all? When one traditionally thinks of a historic age, periods such as the Enlightenment, the Renaissance or the Reformation come to mind. Historically, they refer to times when some sort of evolution replaces the previous model. The Iron Age knocked out the Bronze Age, the Industrial Age transformed an agrarian society into a more technologically-focused one, and so on. What is emerging now is not just a change movement of angry voters, similar to those of the past. The very structure of democracy itself is changing.