Originally published in 1993 by Plenum Press.
Published 2000 by Transaction Publishers
Published 2017 by Routledge
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Library of Congress Catalog Number: 99-23301
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Abernethy, Virginia
Population politics / Virginia D. Abernethy; with a foreword by Garrett
Harden and a new introduction by the author.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-7658-0603-7 (paper)
1. Population policy. 2. Fertility, Human. 3. Demographic transition.
I. Title.
HB883.5. A23 1999
363.9dc21
99-23301
CIP
ISBN 13: 978-0-7658-0603-1 (pbk)
To my children
Seize today, plan for tomorrow
Nature is ruthless when it comes to matching the quantity of life in any given place at any given time to the quantity of nourishment available. So what have you and Nature done about overpopulation? Back here in 1988, we were seeing ourselves as a new sort of glacier, warm-blooded and clever, unstoppable, about to gobble up everything and then make loveand then double in size again.
KURT VONNEGUT
It doesn't take man long to use up a continent.
ROBERT FROST
America is sauntering through her resources, and through the mazes of her politics with an easy nonchalance; but presently there will come a time when she will be surprised to find herself grown olda country, crowded, strained, perplexedwhen she will be obliged to pull herself together, husband her resources, concentrate her strength, steady her methods, sober her views, restrict her vagaries.
WOODROW WILSON
Reflection upon events since completion of a book is a luxury that an author is seldom offered. Uppermost on my mind and a matter that touches on many others is the tension between national sovereignty and its chief nemesis, globalism or one-world. Trends in world and U.S. population and the environment bear on how this tension will play out.
In the half-dozen years since first publication of Population Politics, possibilities barely apparent at the time have become clearer. Other of history's twists and turns have been unexpected. For the future, the greatest certainty I have is that this edition, the paperback I have long wanted, will meet impassioned foe no less than friend.
The Hot-Button Issues
Population, immigration, national sovereignty, and carrying capacity are not unemotional topics. They entail choices affecting conservation and environmental protection as well as the tug of war with policies that advance globalism-one-world.
The concept of carrying capacity is itself sometimes controversial, because it refers to the number of individuals who can be supported without degrading the natural, cultural, and social environment, that is, without reducing the ability of the environment to sustain the desired quality of life over the long term.
The standard carrying capacity question is, "How many people can be supported in a given areaor nationover an indefinitely long term?" Alternately, the question of how many people a particular region can support can be inverted so that it is about the amount of productive land required to sustain a defined population indefinitely, wherever on Earth that land is located (Rees, 1992; Rees and Wackernagel, 1994). This becomes a study of load per person in a population with a particular standard of living. Ecologists William Rees and M. Wackernagel call it the "ecological footprint."
Focus on the ecological footprint of a Canadian, an American, a Bangladeshi, or whomever, leads to recognition that the load factor changes if a person moves; a Bangladeshi coming to Canada quickly adopts local consumption attitudes. Ecological footprint also recognizes that load is distributed far beyond where a person actually lives. Urban dwellers occupy less space, but the offset is the considerable energetic cost of transporting their food, building materials, and other consumer goods in, and their wastes out, of the city.
The phrase,"ecological footprint,"also evokes the image of humans pressing heavily upon the Earth, through both numbers and consumption, as well as the capacity of wealthier nations to trade for whatever is wanted, from wherever it is. Each American imposes a variety of demands and costs on the world environment, so the ripple effects of U.S. population growth are felt far beyond U.S. borders. An example is the burning of fossil fuels that release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere; the fact is, between 1970 and 1990 the United States increased its use of energy by 25 percent, and population growth caused 93 percent of that increase (Holdren, 1991).The American Dream envisions raising everyone, so the more Americans there are, the greater the demand upon the resources and the waste-assimilative capacity of Earth.
Nevertheless, conservation is a positive value for most Americans, and many graciously accept the increasing burden of environmental regulation, even while recognizing that the need for regulation is a direct consequence of the nation's growing population. Moreover, some people in the United States live modestly, involuntarily or not. A reduction in the general standard of living would almost certainly weigh first and most heavily on those who already are poor. Public policy might profitably take into account how many Americans can live well, without destruction of the United States' and others' carrying capacity.
Perspectives on the United States' demographic future are complicated by environmental, economic, and social considerations. If not the "third rail" in politics, demography is at least a matter of some delicacy because of Americans' ethnic diversity and the loyalties this inspires. It is nonetheless inescapably mathematicallytrue that if the population continues to grow at the current rate of approximately 1 percent annually, it will double every seventy years. Is this population growth a sign of economic health and vibrancyor might it push us to the brink of indescribable enormity?
Does the United States' population grow because most Americans want it so, or is it due to the immigration policy of a government and industrial/media elite over which the people have lost control? Why is the United States the only developed country in the world with steady population growth, when all others are fast approaching a stableeven decliningpopulation? Is this growth an appropriate source of national pride, or should one worry? These are questions raised in Population Politics. Politically, they remain heated. Scientifically, trends are clearer and, for the United States, alarming.