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Glenn A. Kent - Thinking About Americas Defense: An Analytical Memoir

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Over his 33 years in the Air Force and more than 20 years at RAND, Lt Gen
Glenn A. Kent was a uniquely acute analyst and developer of American defense
policy. In this volume, he offers not so much a memoir in the normal sense
as a summary of the dozens of national security issues in which he was
personally engaged during his long career. In the process, he describes the
related analytical frameworks and illustrates the bureaucratic intricacies.

Glenn A. Kent: author's other books


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THINKING ABOUT AMERICAS DEFENSE An Analytical Memoir Glenn A Kent - photo 1

THINKING
ABOUT
AMERICAS
DEFENSE

An Analytical Memoir

Glenn A. Kent

With
David Ochmanek
Michael Spirtas
Bruce R. Pirnie

Prepared for the United States Air Force

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

Picture 2

PROJECT AIR FORCE

This publication was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Kent, Glenn A., 1915
Thinking about Americas defense : an analytical memoir / Glenn A. Kent ; with
David Ochmanek, Michael Spirtas, Bruce R. Pirnie.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4452-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Military planningUnited States. 2. United States. Air ForceOfficers
Biography. 3. GeneralsUnited StatesBiography. 4. Strategic forcesUnited
States. 5. National securityUnited States. 6. United StatesDefensesDecision
making. 7. United StatesMilitary policy. I. Ochmanek, David A.
II. Spirtas, Michael. III. Pirnie, Bruce, 1940 IV. Title.

U153.K466 2008
355.033073dc22

2008025840

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

RAND is a registered trademark.

Cover design by Carol Earnest

Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND.

Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation
1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050
4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665
RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/
To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact
Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002;
Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email:

Preface

For those who have known and worked with Lieutenant General (retired) Glenn Altran Kent over the years, it came as something of a shock a few years ago when, in his late eighties, he (sort of) retired. That is, he stopped coming into work every day. He has remained engaged in U.S. national security affairs as an astute observer of policy, and he continues to make important contributions to the work of his colleagues at the RAND Corporation and elsewhere. His colleagues still turn to him for his insights on current work. But he is, alas, no longer a daily presence. The void that this transition in General Kents role created in the professional lives of his colleagues prompted us to approach him about recording some of the high points of his career as a defense analyst so that these invaluable lessons would not be lost. The result is this volume.

This is not a memoir or a biography in the traditional sense of these words. General Kent was not really interested in recounting the events of his life, fascinating though they are. He was, however, willing and indeed eager to share what he has learned about analysis and defense policymaking. Hence, he has produced what we call an analytical memoir, in which he shares his account of the most significant issues with which he was involved over the course of his careerhow he saw each issue and its significance, how he conceptualized and addressed the central analytical problems associated with the issue, and how his work affected policy. Because General Kents career in defense began just before World War II and extended into the 21st century and because he was intimately involved in many of the most salient national security debates over the course of that span, to read this volume is, in many ways, to read an insiders history of key aspects of the Cold War and postCold War defense strategies of the United States.

Everyone who has worked with General Kent is indebted to him for the contributions he made to solving difficult, complex problems. Whether the task at hand was predicting the weather over Greenland in support of crews ferrying combat aircraft to England, setting the performance specifications for the Air Forces next frontline fighter aircraft, or outflanking the leadership of the Navy in support of the creation of the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) for U.S. strategic nuclear forces, General Kent always gave it his best. And his best was always very, very good. The stories collected in this volume are another tangible legacy of this uniquely creative, insightful, and influential man, and for this, we are again in his debt.

Project AIR FORCE

RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Air Forces federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the deployment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.

Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/

Contents

FOREWORD
Creating Strategic Analysis

Thomas C. Schelling

FOREWORD
Putting Analysis to Work

Harold Brown

Introduction
David Ochmanek, Bruce Pirnie, and Michael Spirtas

CHAPTER ONE
The Single Integrated Operational Plan

CHAPTER TWO
Nuclear Weapons: Strategy and Arms Control

CHAPTER THREE
Analysis, Force Planning, and the Paradigm for Modernizing

The Paradigm for Promoting Innovation and Modernizing the
Operational Capabilities of the Force

CHAPTER FOUR
Modernizing Nuclear Forces

Responding to a Possible Soviet Nationwide Antiballistic
Missile Deployment

CHAPTER FIVE
Modernizing Conventional Forces

CHAPTER SIX
Analytical Tools

The Trade-Offs Between Numbers, Yield, and CEP in
Hard-Target Kill

CHAPTER SEVEN
Summing Up: Kents Maxims

Use No-Holds-Barred Murder Boards to Improve Your
Products

Recognize that a Good Offense Is Usually Better Than a
Good Defense

Figures
Tables
Boxes
Acknowledgments
Glenn A. Kent

This book is a summation of the most significant work I have done over the course of my career. Along the way, I have had the good fortune to work with, learn from, and be helped by a host of highly capable people. Regrettably, it is not possible to give due credit to everyone to whom I owe it, but I am profoundly grateful to all of them. I do, however, wish to acknowledge several people who have played especially significant roles in my career.

First and foremost, my wife, Phyllis, my daughter, Kimberly, and my son, Cameron, merit special mention because of the extraordinary support and forbearance they have lent to me over many years. Anyone who has made a career in military or government service knows that such careers place special demands not only on those who serve but also on their families. My wife and children not only tolerated the stresses that my career placed on our family; they bore it all with grace and spirit, supporting me always.

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