THINKING
ABOUT
AMERICAS
DEFENSE
An Analytical Memoir
Glenn A. Kent
With
David Ochmanek
Michael Spirtas
Bruce R. Pirnie
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PROJECT AIR FORCE
This publication was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kent, Glenn A., 1915
Thinking about Americas defense : an analytical memoir / Glenn A. Kent ; with
David Ochmanek, Michael Spirtas, Bruce R. Pirnie.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4452-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Military planningUnited States. 2. United States. Air ForceOfficers
Biography. 3. GeneralsUnited StatesBiography. 4. Strategic forcesUnited
States. 5. National securityUnited States. 6. United StatesDefensesDecision
making. 7. United StatesMilitary policy. I. Ochmanek, David A.
II. Spirtas, Michael. III. Pirnie, Bruce, 1940 IV. Title.
U153.K466 2008
355.033073dc22
2008025840
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Preface
For those who have known and worked with Lieutenant General (retired) Glenn Altran Kent over the years, it came as something of a shock a few years ago when, in his late eighties, he (sort of) retired. That is, he stopped coming into work every day. He has remained engaged in U.S. national security affairs as an astute observer of policy, and he continues to make important contributions to the work of his colleagues at the RAND Corporation and elsewhere. His colleagues still turn to him for his insights on current work. But he is, alas, no longer a daily presence. The void that this transition in General Kents role created in the professional lives of his colleagues prompted us to approach him about recording some of the high points of his career as a defense analyst so that these invaluable lessons would not be lost. The result is this volume.
This is not a memoir or a biography in the traditional sense of these words. General Kent was not really interested in recounting the events of his life, fascinating though they are. He was, however, willing and indeed eager to share what he has learned about analysis and defense policymaking. Hence, he has produced what we call an analytical memoir, in which he shares his account of the most significant issues with which he was involved over the course of his careerhow he saw each issue and its significance, how he conceptualized and addressed the central analytical problems associated with the issue, and how his work affected policy. Because General Kents career in defense began just before World War II and extended into the 21st century and because he was intimately involved in many of the most salient national security debates over the course of that span, to read this volume is, in many ways, to read an insiders history of key aspects of the Cold War and postCold War defense strategies of the United States.
Everyone who has worked with General Kent is indebted to him for the contributions he made to solving difficult, complex problems. Whether the task at hand was predicting the weather over Greenland in support of crews ferrying combat aircraft to England, setting the performance specifications for the Air Forces next frontline fighter aircraft, or outflanking the leadership of the Navy in support of the creation of the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) for U.S. strategic nuclear forces, General Kent always gave it his best. And his best was always very, very good. The stories collected in this volume are another tangible legacy of this uniquely creative, insightful, and influential man, and for this, we are again in his debt.
Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Air Forces federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the deployment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/
Contents
FOREWORD
Creating Strategic Analysis
Thomas C. Schelling
FOREWORD
Putting Analysis to Work
Harold Brown
Introduction
David Ochmanek, Bruce Pirnie, and Michael Spirtas
CHAPTER ONE
The Single Integrated Operational Plan
CHAPTER TWO
Nuclear Weapons: Strategy and Arms Control
CHAPTER THREE
Analysis, Force Planning, and the Paradigm for Modernizing
The Paradigm for Promoting Innovation and Modernizing the
Operational Capabilities of the Force
CHAPTER FOUR
Modernizing Nuclear Forces
Responding to a Possible Soviet Nationwide Antiballistic
Missile Deployment
CHAPTER FIVE
Modernizing Conventional Forces
CHAPTER SIX
Analytical Tools
The Trade-Offs Between Numbers, Yield, and CEP in
Hard-Target Kill
CHAPTER SEVEN
Summing Up: Kents Maxims
Use No-Holds-Barred Murder Boards to Improve Your
Products
Recognize that a Good Offense Is Usually Better Than a
Good Defense
Figures
Tables
Boxes
Acknowledgments
Glenn A. Kent
This book is a summation of the most significant work I have done over the course of my career. Along the way, I have had the good fortune to work with, learn from, and be helped by a host of highly capable people. Regrettably, it is not possible to give due credit to everyone to whom I owe it, but I am profoundly grateful to all of them. I do, however, wish to acknowledge several people who have played especially significant roles in my career.
First and foremost, my wife, Phyllis, my daughter, Kimberly, and my son, Cameron, merit special mention because of the extraordinary support and forbearance they have lent to me over many years. Anyone who has made a career in military or government service knows that such careers place special demands not only on those who serve but also on their families. My wife and children not only tolerated the stresses that my career placed on our family; they bore it all with grace and spirit, supporting me always.