PREFACE
In the mid-nineties, I had the opportunity to work at one of Canadas leading discount brokers. I began by working in the firms call centre. It was a great place to start my career the learning curve was exponential, and it created the foundation that I have built the rest of my career on.
If youre not familiar with how a call centre operates, here are the basics. A licensed representative answers incoming calls from clients as allotted through an automated system. No client is assigned to a particular representative, and, as a result, each rep is exposed to hundreds of investors, each with a different account size and level of sophistication.
As time went by, I started to recognize trends, and I also began to notice certain common characteristics shared by the larger accounts. What was it, I wondered, that contributed to these investors success? What did they know that others did not? How were they different?
I observed that the accounts that were much larger than most all held similar stocks. Was I onto something? Some accounts were large, I knew, because of the success of an investors outside business activities, such as employment. These investors were important, but I was more interested in the investors who had made their wealth as a result of their own investment expertise.
Later, as I developed my skills further, I earned a position in the options queue. It was now the late nineties, and the technology bubble was just gaining momentum. What I witnessed on the options desk was even more incredible than what I had seen on the equity desk. Millions of dollars were made and lost in those few years. A select few investors cashed out their millions before the bubble burst, but the vast majority ended up losing their gains and having to give everything back. What was it, I wondered, that these few successful investors possessed? How did they know when to realize their profits?
Eventually, I came to learn the answers to these questions. For more than twenty years I have had the pleasure of working as a full-service advisor with all sorts of clients, including some making their first investments and some with multi-million-dollar portfolios. Along the way I have learned as much from them as they have from me.
I have always worked to keep their money safe. That is one of the two most important principles I have learned about making money: First, you need to make sure that you dont lose it. Second, it is essential to take risks. These principles may sound contradictory, but they can work together.
Let me explain: Im not talking about gambling; Im referring to disciplined, measured, calculated risks that have a high probability of success. Calculated risks also have the potential for generating asymmetrical returns, which Ill discuss in more detail later in this book. These types of opportunities present themselves only once in every market cycle.
How does the average investor take advantage of these opportunities? This is the question I will attempt to answer in the following pages.
INTRODUCTION
This book is about how to make money. So what? you may think. Money isnt everything. Thats true. After all, what is money anyway? The dictionary defines it as a medium of exchange, a store of value, a unit of account. However, what money is by definition is not important. On the other hand, what money does for us is priceless. It allows us to acquire what we wish and to live meaningful lives. What does this mean for you? Do you want to go on a dream vacation, buy a home, purchase a luxury automobile, send your child to university, become debt- and mortgage-free, leave an inheritance, give to charity? When you are able to answer this question honestly, you will find your motivation to achieve your goals.
One of the best ways to increase your net worth is to invest. How to Profit from the Next Bull Market provides the keys to unlocking the secrets of successful stock market investing. Every investor knows that the bulk of investment returns are made in a bull market. Considering we are in the seventh year of a bull market, the second-longest bull market of the past one hundred years, we can conclude that most of the gains have already been made. Therefore, what is important at this stage of the cycle is capital preservation. There is a bear market approaching. I have identified a number of indicators throughout the book to prove my point and provided the steps you can take in order to protect yourself from the coming tsunami. Following these steps will help you accomplish two extremely important goals: it will prevent you from falling victim to another market crash, and, even better, it will position you properly to reap the rewards of the next bull market.
Even a person who does not have a great deal of investment experience recognizes that markets go through periods of ups and downs. There are four different types of markets: bull, bear, cycling, and congested. Besides being able to comingle with one another, they can exhibit a high degree of variability in factors such as length and amplitude. The potential combinations of these four basic types are endless. For example, a bull rally can take place in a bear market, or a bear market swing can occur in a cycling market.
The most common, the bull market, is an advancing market in which prices are going up for a sustained period of time. These types of markets can advance at a gradual pace or quickly, and they can last for several months or even years. There can be extremely strong bull markets, like the one leading up to the year 2000, or tepid bull markets, like the one we are currently experiencing. As the cycle matures they usually gain momentum, but they then become less sustainable and, therefore, more vulnerable to shifting course. Bull markets are among the most effective markets for the majority of investment strategies.