Stager - Our Future Earth

OUR FUTURE EARTH

ALSO BY CURT STAGER

Field Notes from the Northern Forest

First published in the UK in 2011 by
Duckworth Overlook
90-93 Cowcross Street, London EC1M 6BF
Tel: 020 7490 7300
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2011 by Curt Stager

First published in the USA in 2011 by Thomas Dunne Books, an imprint of St Martins Press, New York

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

The right of by Curt Stager to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

eISBNs:
Mobipocket 978-0-7156-4231-3
ePub 978-0-7156-4230-6
Library PDF 978-0-7156-4229-0

For Kary

Acknowledgments

The roots of this book run broad and deep, but the primary seeds that spawned it were the writings of journalist Elizabeth Kolbert and scientist David Archer. One of Kolberts stories in The New Yorker (The Darkening Sea) opened my eyes to the threat of ocean acidification from global carbon pollution, and Archers research articles showed me that the time scales over which worldwide recovery from that pollution will play out are long enough to resonate with my own training in paleoecology. But those seeds also required fertile soil in which to develop, and many others have provided that.

My parents always encouraged my interests in the natural world, and many academic mentors helped them to mature into a profession. At Bowdoin and Duke, those included Janis Antonovics, Paul Baker, Dwight Billings, Larry Cahoon, Chuck Huntington, Art Hussey, Dan Livingstone, John Lundberg, Jim Moulton, Fred Nijhout, Steve Vogel, Henry Wilbur, and others.

While working on the story of the Lake Nyos gas disaster and other topics for National Geographic magazine, I learned much about science journalism under the guidance of Bill Allen, Tom Canby, Ford Cochran, Rick Gore, Chris Johns, and Tony Suau. Since then, Ive been fortunate to continue that training with fine writer-editors such as Dick Beamish and Phil Brown (Adirondack Explorer), Betsy Folwell and Mary Thill (Adirondack Life), Maurice Kenny, and Christopher Shaw.

Shortly after joining the faculty at Paul Smiths College in 1987, I met another group of exceptional journalists at North Country Public Radio, which is based at Saint Lawrence University in Canton, New York. They invited me to provide a scientific complement to news director Martha Foleys role as interested lay person in a weekly five-minute conversation about everything from dragonflies to continental drift. First under the title Field Notes and then Natural Selections, Martha and I have recorded hundreds of pieces over the last two decades, many of which are now archived online (www.ncpr.org). Thanks to Marthas patient but ruthless training, I now feel confident enough about explaining science to general audiences to enjoy it. Many thanks also go to Lamar Bliss, Ken Brown, Joel Hurd, Brian Mann, Ellen Rocco, and the rest of the NCPR team.

Many scientists contributed helpful ideas, feedback, information, and/or quotes to this project. Among them are Jun Abrajano, David Archer, Colin Beier, Dan Belknap, Paul Blanchon, Richard Brandt, Mark Brenner, Gordon Bromley, Ken Caldeira, Anny Cazenave, Brian Chase, Jeff Chiarenzelli, Brian Cumming, Ellen Currano, Kathie Dello, Andrew Derocher, Mike Farrell, Andrei Ganopolski, Gordon Hamilton, Darden Hood, Mimi Katz, Joe Kelley, George Jacobson, Andrei Kurbatov, Marie-France Loutre, Kirk Maasch, Paul Mayewski, Stacy McNulty, Mike Meadows, Johannes Oerlemans, Neil Opdyke, Kurt Rademaker, Don Rodbell, Bill Ruddiman, Dan Sandweiss, John Smol, Konrad Steffen, Gene Stoermer, Lowell Stott, Jerome Thaler, Piet Verburg, Chris Williams, Brendan Wiltse, and Kirsten Zickfeld. During the Copenhagen climate conference in December 2009, the American Geophysical Union organized a volunteer task force of scientists to offer a round-the-clock online resource base for journalists to approach with technical questions. I gratefully acknowledge the input of the following scientists who quickly and clearly answered many of my own arcane questions in that manner: Jill Baron, Jeffrey Dukes, Katharine Hayhoe, William Howard, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jeff Richey, Walter Robinson, Spencer Weart, and Bruce Wielicki. Any errors that remain in the text despite the efforts of these generous and capable experts are of my own doing, not theirs.

My research on African and Peruvian paleoclimates, some of which is summarized in this book, has been funded by the National Science Foundation, the National Geographic Society, and the Comer Foundation. In particular, Dave Verardo and Paul Filmer of the NSF have been great sources of encouragement for public outreach efforts as well as for research. Paul Smiths College, Saint Lawrence University, Queens University, and the University of Maines Climate Change Institute have also provided valuable support. My research on climate change in the Adirondacks and the Champlain Basin has been aided financially and logistically by the A. C. Walker Foundation, Paul Smiths College, and The Nature Conservancy.

Many friends, family, and associates have generously helped with editing, quotes, brainstorming, and/or other forms of support throughout this project, including Ken Aaron, Meg Bernstein, Sandy Brown, Pat Clelland, Lauralyn Dyer, Jorie Favreau, Kathleen Fitzgerald, Martha Foley, Eric Holmlund and his students, Kary Johnson, Devora Kamys, Hillarie Logan-Dechene, Bill McKibben, John Mills, Richard Nelson, Pat Pillis, Cheryl Ploof, Carl Putz, Mimi Rice, Christopher Shaw, Susan and Bill Sweeney, LeeAnn Sporn, Jay and Asha Stager, Mary Thill, and Will Tissot.

You probably wouldnt be reading this if Natalie Thill of the Adirondack Center for Writing had not invited scientist-author Bernd Heinrich to visit the Adirondacks on a speaking tour several years ago. After we first met and collaborated there, it was his kind endorsement that later landed this project in the capable hands of my agent-to-die-for, Sandy Dijkstra. Without Sandys skill, energy, and top-notch staff behind it, along with the additional wizardry of agents John Pearce and Caspian Dennis, the manuscript might not have gained the attention of Thomas Dunne (Thomas Dunne Books, St. Martins Press), Jim Gifford (Harper-Collins Canada), Henry Rosenbloom (Scribe) and their counterparts at Duckworth/Overlook Press. It has been a pleasure to work with this team, particularly my excellent editor at Thomas Dunne Books, Peter Joseph. And both Meryl Moss Media Relations and Emma Morris (Scribe) worked wonders with publicity.

Above all, I am indebted to my best friend and partner-in-life, Kary Johnson, who has been a constant source of kindness and inspiration through these last three years of research, writing, and editing. Despite the piles of papers cluttering the house, the many evenings and weekends that saw me glued to a laptop, the last-minute requests for one of her beautiful photos or the drafting of a figure or help with a choice of words, and my general all-around obsession with this project, Kary has remained unceasingly helpful, insightful, and cheerfully tolerant of it all. Always willing to entertain a new idea or to help pursue a line of thought, always there when I needed someone to watch my back, she has made this work worth pursuing, and I could never have done it without her.