Vollman - Hockey Abstract presents stat shot: the ultimate guide to hockey analytics

with Tom Awad and Iain Fyffe

I can still remember the excitement that came with the realization that hockey was on the verge of entering the analytics era. Id watched as the Bill Jamesled sabermetrics movement swept through major league baseball fandom before eventually going mainstream around the turn of the century. As a diehard Maple Leafs fan going back over 30 years, I was eager to see the same scenario finally play out in my favourite sport. After all, the promise of analyticsmore stats, better information, and ultimately a better understanding of the sport we loveis nearly irresistible to any true fan.

And sure enough, maybe five or six years ago, the first wave of hockey analytics started to show up on my radar. There were only two problems.

The first was that, back in those early days, good content could be hard to find. Oh, there was lots of it and the small community of fans who were doing most of the work knew where to find it, but to an average fan like me, it could be confusing to wade through random blogs, forums, and comments sections to figure out what was worth paying attention to.

The second and far more pressing problem: math is hard, and Im not all that bright.

That first problem has largely disappeared, thanks to the work of many smart and dedicated fans, including the authors of the book youre now holding. You can now find engaging analytics work on virtually all of the major news and sports media sites, and the topic often comes up in broadcasts and highlight shows. More advanced work is being done on blogs and websites around the hockey world, supplemented by discussion and debate on social media. And, of course, NHL teams themselves have leapt enthusiastically onto the bandwagon, hiring up many of the brightest minds to inform their front office decision-making. In fact, just about the only place you couldnt find analytics was on your bookshelf, and now weve solved that issue too. These days, smart hockey talk is everywhere.

The second problem is a bit trickier. If youre a math lover who already gets the tougher concepts then youre all set. But if youre like me, and just calculating the tip on a $20 restaurant bill feels like a homework assignment, it can sometimes feel like youre slamming your head against a wall. Ive found myself reading through 2,000-word posts about some particular newly developed stat, getting to the bottom where they lay out the results for certain key players, and then thinking Wait, is a high number supposed to be good or bad?

Some of that is by designnot every analytics article is meant for a general audience. A lot of the pieces are intended for fellow experts wholl engage in a form of peer review to make sure the work is solid. Thats a good thing, and its the sort of approach that will keep the movement headed in the right direction. But theres a certain skill needed to do good work thats also accessible to a wide audience.

Thats where Rob Vollman comes in. Ive been reading Robs work for years, and there may be no better writer in the field when it comes to straddling that line between producing smart, important content while still making sure the average fan can get their head around it. Theres nothing quite like getting to the end of a complex piece and realizing Hey, I get this. It makes sense. I can actually use this.

Thats the beauty of Robs work in general, and of this book in particular. If youre just dipping a toe into the analytics waters for the first time, youll be surprised at just how much of these advanced stats will end up making intuitive sense to you. If youre a novice, youll encounter a mix of familiar concepts and brand-new ones that take the basic concepts further, or sometimes in surprising new directions. And if youre already an expert, well, youre probably not reading this foreword. You dove straight in, eager to see what sorts of new discoveries youll find inside.

In any case, youll come out the other side a smarter hockey fan. Youll learn which stats to follow and which to largely ignore. Youll be better able to predict whats most likely to happen in the future. And, maybe most important of all, youll end up with a much more finely tuned BS-detector, one that will keep you from getting suckered in by common fallacies and sloppy thinking. You wont necessarily like all the lessons you learnIm still not quite over the ugly truth analytics taught me about first-line centre Tyler Bozakbut youll be wiser for them.

The work of Rob and folks like him has undoubtedly made me a better hockey fan and, I hope, a much better hockey writer. Spend some time with this book, and they can do the same for you.

(Youll still be on your own for those restaurant bills though.)