Valery Dmitryevich Sharov - Probabilistic-Statistical Methods for Risk Assessment in Civil Aviation (Springer Aerospace Technology)

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Despite a specific improvement in recent years, the state of Safety (S) in Civil Aviation (CA) of the Russian Federation remains unsatisfactory. If, during regular air transportation, the level of S in CA of the Russian Federation corresponds to the global average, then in general, for commercial CA, it is lower than the global average.

There is a significant lag behind the industry-leading countries. So, for the period 20072018, according to calculations based on the data of the Federal Aviation Administration of the Russian Federation and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), USA, the average annual relative number of Accidents (ACCID) per 100 thousand flight hours was 0.538 in the commercial CA of the Russian Federation and 0.324 in the USA. The relative number of disasters in the Russian Federation is 0.259 and in the USA 0.099. The number of deaths per 1 million transported in the Russian Federation is 0.870 and in the USA 0.044.

A current approach to problem-solving of increasing S provides for the development of an Aviation Safety Management System (SMS) for each airline, and the basis of the SMS is the process of managing the risk of air safety.

There is no standard for SMS in the Russian Federation, and airlines develop SMS independently. Under these conditions, in the absence of a standard S risk management methodology and a lack of guidelines for the development and implementation of methods, there is a broad and subjective interpretation of several provisions of the ICAO Safety Management Manual (SMM) and the Russian Air Law. This leads to a conflict of priorities and misallocation of the resources of airlines and, ultimately, does not allow providing a satisfactory level of S in CA of the Russian Federation.

The approach to S management recommended by ICAO is not fundamentally new. It has long been used in the framework of solving the problem of ensuring S, which is the work of Barzilovich E. Y., Bachkalo B. I., Vorobyev V. V., Vorobyev V. G., Guzia A. G., Gipich G. N., Evdokimov V. G., Elisov L. N., Zubkov B. V., Kovalenko G. V., Kuklev E. A., Lebedev A. M., Makarov V. P., Matveev G. N., Livshits G. L., Lushkin A. M., Neymark M. I., Plotnikov N. I., Rukhlinsky V. M., Sakacha R. V., Stolyarov N. A., Shapkin V. S., and others.

It should be noted the development of the State flight safety center, the State research Institute of civil aviation, the Research institute of air navigation, the Moscow State technical university of civil aviation, the St. Petersburg State university of civil aviation and the Ulyanovsk Higher aviation school of civil aviation.

Foreign organizations include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the USA; the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST), the USA; the Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR), the Netherlands; and the Airline Risk Management System (ARMS) at EASA, S departments of Boeing and Airbus corporations.

On the other hand, there are serious theoretical studies and practical results on the assessment of technogenic risks in hazardous industries in the works of the Institute of Control Sciences Academician V.A Trapeznikov RAS, Mechanical Engineering Research Institute of the RAS, as well as those of authors such as Alexandrovsky L. N., Aronova I. Z., Brushlinsky N. N., Belova P. G., Viktorova V. S., Vishnyakov Y. D., Vladimirov V. A., Vorobiev Y. L., Kovalevich O. M., Kryukov S. P., Kulba V. V., Makhutov N. A., Malinetskiy G. E., Novikov D. A., Orlov A. I., Ryabinin I. A., Raikov A. N., Spesivtsev A. V., Shvyryaev Y. V., and other scientists.