Thought experiments depend upon the development of proper hypotheticals that take reality into account and employ the closest analogies for purposes of understanding. Though many thought experiments have become famous, they tend to be viewed by scientists as interesting for developing explanatory clarity, but not particularly useful for actually doing science. The process remains scattershotoccasionally employed, but not developed to its full potential.
The purpose of this book was not just to create a historical background for thought experiments, but to show their use in clarifying models involving time, psychology, ethics, and even history. My hope is also that this book will encourage caution in anyone who hopes to develop a thought experiment in any field of study. Thought experiments are delicate, and their parameters can easily be torn down when new facts are discovered or a slight difference is found between the thought experiment and its real-world analog. Improper thought experiments can lead to the wrong type of decision making, particularly in politics and ethics.
Generally speaking, bad decisions get made because the thought processes behind the decisions remain connected to some long-standing historical process that traps someones thinking. Most of the time, people cannot see how their thinking is connected to these historically-created structures. We feel guilty for violating norms created thousands of years ago for other places and peoples, yet cannot see that those norms might need to shift.
A woman in Afghanistan, for example, might feel just as guilty for leaving the house without her burka as a homosexual male would have felt in conservative Christian Ireland during the 1950s. Thought experiments help to update the ethical norms with the times; they develop clarity and can do real good.
Mostly, however, the thought experiment reaches its full potential as a teaching method. The teacher can express an old thought experiment, create a new one, or ask students to create them. The creation of thought experiments is engaging and useful, and in the process of doing so, students will find that they must master certain forms of content in order to develop the parameters of thought experiments.
Given their importance in the history of ideas, it would seem that thought experiments would be given a great place of importance as a discrete intellectual category. The classroom potential for a curriculum based on thought experiments is vast. Even in this age of research and wealth there is a place for experiments created out of pure thought.
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Thought experiments come in different categories, and some experiments will overlap. Three of the most famous involve one involving the concept of a future singularity, or point where the universe itself becomes conscious; the Trolley Problem, which is a riddle of sorts that engages ones emotional and cognitive reasoning skills; and The Prisoners Dilemma, which is a construct of game theory and is tied to rational choice. Analyzing these three best-known thought experiments will help to provide logical consistency as we expand the concepts in subsequent chapters.
Ray Kurweil and the Singularity
The concept of a singularity, established by the inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil in his bestselling book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (2005), consists of the notion that humanity and technology intertwine to move history in a specific direction. Kurzweil imagines a scenario where current trends regarding technological complexity will continue until they reach an inevitable singularity point when the universe will wake up.
Kurzweils prediction cannot be described as new, but in order to analyze him and the flaws of his thought experiment, he must be compared to the right historical philosopher. It is tempting to compare the philosophy of Kurzweil with that of the Jesuit theologian Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (18811955), since both men noted that the evolution of humanity and society trends toward ever greater levels of complexity. Kurzweils ideas about predicting the future are also similar to those of Karl Marx, who believed that by understanding history it becomes possible to predict an inevitable future outcome.
But, in fact, Kurzweils philosophy is more analogous with that of St. Thomas Aquinas, who was commissioned by the Catholic Church in the 13th century to prove the tenets of Christianity using newly discovered Aristotelian logic. Aquinas, as Bertrand Russell pointed out, was not a true philosopher, since he already knew the conclusion and tried to blaze a trail of reason backwards. When this proved impossible, Aquinas could simply use faith as a crutch. Although different in form, this is the same flawed approach to a philosophical thought experiment that Kurzweil takes.
Before pointing out the errors of Kurzweils thought experiment regarding a future singularity, it is first necessary to encapsulate his theory: Kurz-weils major assertion is that human evolution should be divided into six epochs.
- Epoch One involved Physics and Chemistry, which included the storing of information in atoms.