Steven Pinker - 13 Feb

: Tone of the news, 19452010

: Life expectancy, 17712015

: Child mortality, 17512013

: Maternal mortality, 17512013

: Life expectancy, UK, 17012013

: Childhood deaths from infectious disease, 20002013

: Calories, 17002013

: Childhood stunting, 19662014

: Undernourishment, 19702015

: Famine deaths, 18602016

: Gross World Product, 12015

: GDP per capita, 16002015

: World income distribution, 1800, 1975, and 2015

: Extreme poverty (proportion), 18202015

: Extreme poverty (number), 18202015

: International inequality, 18202013

: Global inequality, 18202011

: Inequality, UK and US, 16882013

: Social spending, OECD countries, 18802016

: Income gains, 19882008

: Poverty, US, 19602016

: Population and population growth, 17502015 and projected to 2100

: Sustainability, 19552109

: Pollution, energy, and growth, US, 19702015

: Deforestation, 17002010

: Oil spills, 19702016

: Protected areas, 19902014

: Carbon intensity (CO emissions per dollar of GDP), 18202014

: CO emissions, 19602015

: Great power war, 15002015

: Battle deaths, 19462016

: Genocide deaths, 19562016

: Homicide deaths, Western Europe, US, and Mexico, 13002015

: Homicide deaths, 19672015

: Motor vehicle accident deaths, US, 19212015

: Pedestrian deaths, US, 19272015

: Plane crash deaths, 19702015

: Deaths from falls, fire, drowning, and poison, US, 19032014

: Occupational accident deaths, US, 19132015

: Natural disaster deaths, 19002015

: Lightning strike deaths, US, 19002015

: Terrorism deaths, 19702015

: Democracy versus autocracy, 18002015

: Human rights, 19492014

: Death penalty abolitions, 18632016

: Executions, US, 17802016

: Racist, sexist, and homophobic opinions, US, 19872012

: Racist, sexist, and homophobic Web searches, US, 20042017

: Hate crimes, US, 19962015

: Rape and domestic violence, US, 19932014

: Decriminalization of homosexuality, 17912016

: Liberal values across time and generations, developed countries, 19802005

: Liberal values across time (extrapolated), worlds culture zones, 19602006

: Victimization of children, US, 19932012

: Child labor, 18502012

: Literacy, 14752010

: Basic education, 18202010

: Years of schooling, 18702010

: Female literacy, 17502014

: IQ gains, 19092013

: Global well-being, 18202015

: Work hours, Western Europe and US, 18702000

: Retirement, US, 18802010

: Utilities, appliances, and housework, US, 19002015

: Cost of light, England, 13002006

: Spending on necessities, US, 19292016

: Leisure time, US, 19652015

: Cost of air travel, US, 19792015

: International tourism, 19952015

: Life satisfaction and income, 2006

: Loneliness, US students, 19782011

: Suicide, England, Switzerland, and US, 18602014

: Happiness and excitement, US, 19722016

: Nuclear weapons, 19452015

: Populist support across generations, 2016

PREFACE

The second half of the second decade of the third millennium would not seem to be an auspicious time to publish a book on the historical sweep of progress and its causes. At the time of this writing, my country is led by people with a dark vision of the current moment: mothers and children trapped in poverty... an education system which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge... and the crime, and the gangs, and the drugs that have stolen too many lives. We are in an outright war that is expanding and metastasizing. The blame for this nightmare may be placed on a global power structure that has eroded the underlying spiritual and moral foundations of Christianity.

In the pages that follow, I will show that this bleak assessment of the state of the world is wrong. And not just a little wrongwrong wrong, flat-earth wrong, couldnt-be-more-wrong. But this book is not about the forty-fifth president of the United States and his advisors. It was conceived some years before Donald Trump announced his candidacy, and I hope it will outlast his administration by many more. The ideas that prepared the ground for his election are in fact widely shared among intellectuals and laypeople, on both the left and the right. They include pessimism about the way the world is heading, cynicism about the institutions of modernity, and an inability to conceive of a higher purpose in anything other than religion. I will present a different understanding of the world, grounded in fact and inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment: reason, science, humanism, and progress. Enlightenment ideals, I hope to show, are timeless, but they have never been more relevant than they are right now.

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The sociologist Robert Merton identified Communalism as a cardinal scientific virtue, together with Universalism, Disinterestedness, and Organized Skepticism: CUDOS. Kudos indeed goes to the many scientists who shared their data in a communal spirit and responded to my queries thoroughly and swiftly. First among these is Max Roser, proprietor of the mind-expanding Our World in Data Web site, whose insight and generosity were indispensable to many discussions in part II, the section on progress. I am grateful as well to Marian Tupy of HumanProgress and to Ola Rosling and Hans Rosling of Gapminder, two other invaluable resources for understanding the state of humanity. Hans was an inspiration, and his death in 2017 a tragedy for those who are committed to reason, science, humanism, and progress.