Jonathan Ward - Chinas Vision of Victory

PRAISE FOR
CHINAS VISION OF VICTORY
AND JONATHAN D.T. WARD

The extraordinary rise of China is unprecedented in world history and the biggest geopolitical development of the first two decades of the 21st Century; it is likely to continue to be so for decades to come. Jonathan Ward is very well qualified to document Chinas extraordinary growth, and he describes it superbly in Chinas Vision of Victory , a powerful work that is sure to provoke thought and serious reflection.

GENERAL DAVID PETRAEUS, US Army (Ret.), former commander of coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and US Central Command, and former Director of the CIA

Jonathan Ward is a young scholar with not only all the necessary linguistic and travel credentials, but with something even more important, a vision of history rooted in geography that allows him to espy the future.

ROBERT D. KAPLAN, author of Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power

Ive long admired Jonathans determination to get to the truth, on the ground. It is rare to find someone able to combine politics, philosophy, linguistic expertise and hard traveland bring it to bear on some of the toughest issues of our generationJonathan is one of those remarkable people.

RORY STEWART, author of The Places in Between and The Prince of Marshes

This book is a very timely Master Class on China. Everyone with a keen interest in Chinas political, military and economic policy, past and present, should study this book carefully. Jonathan Wards gimlet-eyed analysis and prescriptive recommendations should be taken to heart by all.

JACK DEVINE, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (Ret.), author of Good Hunting: An American Spymasters Story

Jonathan Ward has provided an eye-opening analysis of Chinas strategic ambitions. He effectively demolishes the longstanding expectation in Washington that a prosperous rising China will be content to integrate itself into the Western international order to the contrary, he demonstrates that Beijings objectives include nothing less than renovating that order to serve Chinas own strategic interests. As the United States debates the future of its China policy, Chinas Vision of Victory deserves the widest reading.

ASHLEY J. TELLIS, Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Chinas Vision of Victory is insightful, compelling, and long overdue. Whether your interest is business, economics, diplomacy, or politics, Jonathan Wards assessments and analysis are on target. More importantly, his book will help you understand the complexity and interconnection of all facets of Americas relations with China. Jonathan has given us a new take on the many challenges we face in addressing Chinese power and its relationship with the world.

ADMIRAL SCOTT H. SWIFT, US Navy (Ret.), Commander of US Pacific Fleet, 20152018

Dr. Ward tells an absorbing and well-researched story about Chinas grand strategy to achieve supremacy among all nations by 2049 and the role of Western capital in fueling Chinas rise. Chinas Vision of Victory is a must-read for Western policy makers, intelligence agencies, chief executives, global investors, and globally-minded thinkers. It is a real-life page-turner, if ever there was one.

J. KYLE BASS, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of Hayman Capital Management

CHINAS VISION OF VICTORY

Copyright 2019 by Dr. Jonathan D. T. Ward

All rights reserved. This book or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of the publisher except for the use of brief quotations in a book review.

Printed in the United States of America

First Printing, 2019

ISBN 978-0-578-50230-4

Library of Congress Control Number: 2019902591

The Atlas Publishing and Media Company LLC www.atlaspublishingandmedia.com

To My Fellow Americans

and

Our Friends and Allies Around the World

2019

CONTENTS

FOREWORD

The Need for a New American Grand Strategy in a Time of USChina Competition

ADMIRAL SCOTT H. SWIFT, UNITED STATES NAVY (RET.)

Commander, US Pacific Fleet (20152018)

Robert E. Wilhelm Fellow, MIT Center for International Studies

C hinas Vision of Victory is insightful, compelling, and long overdue. Whether your interest is business, economics, diplomacy, or politics, Jonathan Wards assessments and analysis are on target. More importantly, his book will help you understand the complexity and interconnection of all facets of Americas relations with China. Jonathan has given us a new take on the many challenges we face in addressing Chinese power and its relationship with the world.

This is an important undertaking. To understand China you have to take a multi-dimensional approach, as Jonathan has done. Chinas strategy is a global grand strategy dynamic, multifaceted, and utilizing all elements of the nations government and society. To truly understand China, you have to look at its strategic intentions in all of its parts, as Jonathan has done.

The author notes that China has leveraged its economic empowerment through engagement with the United States, and China is now returning to the original ideological intentions of the Chinese Communist Party. I could not agree more. The Chinese have not obscured or hidden their intentions. They have communicated clearly to their citizens their near- and long-term political objectives and their grand strategy for getting there. As Jonathan points out, when Henry Kissinger first visited Beijing, he described China as a mysterious country. Through our own shortcomings, we have unnecessarily mystified this grand plan. Our lack of knowledge and understanding explains why America thought the best approach for our emerging relationship with China was engage but hedge. Now, not only are we as Americans beginning to grasp the true nature of Chinas plans, but the world is as well.

Chinas grand strategy plays to its advantages and is derived from a vision of its intended relationship with the world. From that grand strategy China has developed regional strategies to guide its actions in every corner of the world.

China has developed military bases on man-made islands in the South China Sea, engineering marvels emblematic of the success of the implementation of Chinese grand strategic outcomes and its resultant transition from a mysterious country to one overtly assuming a commanding position on the global stage.

More broadly, and of even greater concern, China has long pursued a strategy of exploiting the international rules-based order when those rules provide Chinese advantage, while also using economic and military coercion, corruption, intimidation, bullying, and outright force when convenient to achieve national objectives.

Chinas success demonstrates the value of a true grand strategy applied effectively and efficiently. China has done this methodically, with frequent updates based upon changing world conditions, as well as Chinas assessments of its own ability to advance toward its goals. It has also telegraphed its broad strategic intent, if not its specific objectives. Granted, it has presented goals in much clearer terms to its internal audience than to the international community, but, as Jonathan points out, this is not new and not beyond the view of a careful eye on Chinese discourse.

This reality was reflected in Chinese Premier Zhou Enlais response to Kissingers comment about the mystery of Chinese aims when he simply said: It is not mysterious to us. Nor should it be a mystery to us. Certainly, reading this book will help lift what is the Wests largely self-created idea of a Chinese veil of mystery.