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Michael Mulqueen - Re-Evaluating Irish National Security Policy: Affordable Threats?

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Michael Mulqueen Re-Evaluating Irish National Security Policy: Affordable Threats?
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On the afternoon of September 11 2001 the Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach), Bertie Ahern ordered the heads of the security services of key government departments to undertake a complete re-evaluation of measures to protect the state from attack. Hence, underway within hours of the 9/11 outrage in the United States was potentially the most far-reaching review of Irish national security in decades.This book, the first major academic investigation of Irish national security policy as it has operated since 9/11, provides a theoretically informed analysis of that re-evaluation and the decisions which have been taken as a consequence of it up until September 2008. In so doing it draws on unprecedented access to Irelands police, security and intelligence agencies; over twenty senior personnel agreed to be interviewed.Theoretically the author demonstrates the utility to the analysis of national security policy of three conceptual models of historical institutionalism, governmental politics and threat evaluation.The text is of interest to scholars of Security Studies, International Relations and Politics, as well as state and NGO personnel, journalists and general readers.

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Re-evaluating Irish national security policy
To my wife Fidelma Hawes and children Alexandra and Harry for whom the words - photo 1
To my wife Fidelma Hawes and children Alexandra and Harry for whom the words husband and father have too often merged into one: work.
Re-evaluating Irish national security policy
Affordable threats?
Michael Mulqueen
Copyright Michael Mulqueen 2009 The right of Michael Mulqueen to be identified - photo 2
Copyright Michael Mulqueen 2009
The right of Michael Mulqueen to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
Published by Manchester University Press
Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9NR, UK
and Room 400, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA
www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk
Distributed in the United States exclusively by
Palgrave Macmillan, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York,
NY 10010, USA
Distributed in Canada exclusively by
UBC Press, University of British Columbia, 2029 West Mall,
Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z2
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for
ISBN 978 0 7190 8027 2
First published 2009
The publisher has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for any external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
Edited and typeset
by Frances Hackeson Freelance Publishing Services, Brinscall, Lancs
Printed in Great Britain
by the MPG Books Group
Contents
Abbreviations
ACOUSINT
acoustic intelligence
ARW
Army Ranger Wing
ATCP
Aid to the Civil Power
C3
Forerunner to CSB
CSB
Crime and Security Branch
DDIS/FE
Danish Defence Intelligence Service/Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste
DF
Defence Forces
EEZ
European Exclusive Economic Zone
ESDP
European Security and Defence Policy
FARC
Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia
FCA
Frsa Cosanta itiuil (forerunner to the Irish Army Reserve)
G2
Irish military intelligence service
HUMINT
human intelligence
MAR-INFO
Maritime Information Group
NSC
National Security Committee
ODCE
Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement
OEP
Office of Emergency Planning
OSINT
open source intelligence
PDF
Permanent Defence Forces
PET
Politiets Efterretningstjeneste (Danish national security intelligence service)
PfP NATOs
Partnership for Peace
PRSTV
Proportional Representation by Single Transferable Vote
PULSE
Police Using Leading edge Systems Effectively
RT
Radio Telefs ireann
SPO
Skerhetspolisen (Swedish domestic intelligence agency)
SDU
Special Detective Unit
SIGINT
Signals Intelligence
SIS/MI6
UK Secret Intelligence Service
Preface
This book examines how national security policy may prevent but also unwittingly facilitate terrorist attacks. September 11 2001 provides an obvious starting point. The immense public tragedy of that day confirmed the folly of assuming that state organisations even those responsible for our security could readily set aside their histories, bureaucracies and politics and prepare objectively against a shared threat. A striking conclusion to emerge from the investigations after the attack was the scale of the inter- and intra-organisational wrangling and the ensuing gaps in security.
Questions of policy and the organisational coherence it is meant to underpin are applied here in a theoretically informed analysis of the Irish national security response to transnational terrorism. The book closely examines Irelands national security apparatus, about which little is known despite international interest in Irish political violence and the Northern Ireland Peace Process. Crime and Security Branch (CSB), the internal security agency operating within An Garda Sochna; G2, the military intelligence organisation; and the National Security Committee of senior officials and officers which advises the Irish Government on security matters, receive particular attention. The investigation begins with the Irish governments initial security policy response to the attack of 9/11 and ends with an assessment of where policy stands in mid-2008. Two sets of conclusions emerge. The first concerns theory and the second, policy.
Firstly on the theoretical foundations of security policy study, a historical approach is called for. Public policy-makers prefer to remain on reliable paths and so few junctures of fundamental change occur. In the Irish case political and public unity in the weeks after 9/11 combined into pressure for a complete reappraisal of the States low-profile, low-cost national security policy. In a short time, however, the departments and agencies concerned managed matters such that they were able to revert to pre-defined patterns. What developments occurred carried with them a high degree of organisational familiarity, reflecting especially the structures, policies and traditions built up during almost forty years of violent conflict in Northern Ireland.
The Irish case also suggests that the period of confusion between the committal of an attack and the unveiling of a multi-faceted policy response can last but a matter of days owing, not least, to the pressure of public outcry for action. The scope for decision-making mistakes is obvious but the need to be seen to do something is greater. Bureaucratic politics provides a means to underpin analysis of this period, during which the policy community is cut loose from its familiar traffic rules yet must take a decisive course. It may be one of the most established conceptual approaches in modern political enquiry but, as this study finds, it is well suited to the task of analysing the decisions of national security policy managers under severe political pressure.
Conceptual tools to identify the dynamics of policy decision-making must be accompanied by a model which helps assess the likely effectiveness of the policy itself. Key here, in the context of transnational terrorism in a new media age, is a model that can evaluate policy not only in terms of the traditional concerns of protecting the territory and institutional expression of the state, but also as it pertains to the idea that binds state and society. Such a model should as is done here consider the direct or indirect nature of the threat, the distance of threat and the probability and consequence of it manifesting into an attack.
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