Serreze - Brave new Arctic: the untold story of the melting North

As recently as the 1980s, the Arctic was, in many respects, the same Arctic that had enchanted humankind for centuries. But over the next decade, scientists from around the world began to notice changes. There were hints that the floating sea-ice cover at summers end was receding, accompanied by shifts in ocean circulation. Air temperatures over some parts of the Arctic were distinctly rising, although other areas were cooling, attended by puzzling changes in weather patterns. Permafrostthe Arctics perennially frozen groundshowed signs of warming. Although it had long been recognized that the human imprint on climate would likely appear first in the Arctic, much of what was happening had the look of a natural climate cycle. Still, the changes kept coming. Through a largely self-organizing process, scientists from diverse disciplines and from around the world began to find the answers. There were remarkable discoveries, periods of confusion, and controversy. Through their efforts, by the second decade of the 21st century, the picture had cleared. We were well on our way toward a warmer and profoundly different North, essentially free of summer sea ice, with effects on climate and human systems potentially spanning the globe. This book tells the story of the melting North. It draws strongly from my own perspective as a climate scientist who saw it all happen and from those whom I have known and worked with for these many years.

ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

AO Arctic Oscillation

AON Arctic Observing Network

ARCSS Arctic Climate System Study

ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer

ATLAS Arctic Transitions in the Land-Atmosphere System

AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

CHAMP Community-wide Hydrologic Analysis and Monitoring Program

DMSP Defense Meteorological Satellite Program

EOF Empirical Orthogonal Function

FWI Freshwater Integration

GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment

IABP International Arctic Buoy Programme

IARC International Arctic Research Center

ICESat Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPY International Polar Year

LDGO Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

MOSAiC Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate

NAM Northern Annular Mode

NAO North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCEAS National Center for Ecological Analysis

NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NPEO North Pole Environmental Observatory

NSF National Science Foundation

NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center

ONR Office of Naval Research

PIOMAS Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System

SEARCH Study of Environmental Arctic Change

SHEBA Surface Heat Balance of the Arctic Ocean

Turning points in life are seldom recognized until they have already passed. In my case, that turning point was in 1981. After a series of aimless years, I finally landed on a track toward a bachelors degree from the University of Massachusetts Amherst in physical geography. Id started out in 1978 as an astronomy and physics major, but for a number of reasons, none of which bear especially close scrutiny, I decided to go in a different direction. On the plus side, it was clear that a bachelors in geography was better than no degree at all. On the minus side, I hadnt yet learned enough hard science to be employable, only enough to be irritating to my friends.

Lucky for me, the decision panned out. I ended up being in the right place at the right time to seize an opportunity and see part of the world where, at the time, few had ventured. Six months later, I found myself in a ski-equipped Twin Otter headed to northeastern Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic to begin a detailed study of two little ice caps. I became enchanted with the North and decided to become an Arctic climatologist. By 2016, those ice caps had almost completely melted away, victims of the Arctic meltdown. I could never have imagined this at the time. I could not have known that in becoming a climate scientist, I was to earn a front-row seat to observe how, in fits and starts, it first began to be noticed that the Arctic was changing. Nor could I have known that Id also become part of the growing cadre of scientists who first struggled with conflicting evidence to try and make sense of what was happening, then finally had no recourse but to yield to the conclusion that a radical transformation was underway. I could not have foreseen that Arctic climate research, once the domain of a small community of scientists with love for snow and ice, would become a centerpiece in the quest to understand the impacts of global climate change that would involve collaboration between thousands of scientists from around the world.