Alan Reifman - Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports Greatest Streaks

Writing about the hot hand for roughly a dozen yearsfirst in messages to online discussion groups, then on a blog, and now with this bookhas been a true labor of love. Numerous people have supported me in this endeavor, many of whom I never would have met, but for my interest in the hot hand.

Tom Gilovich, a cofounder of hot hand research, has always been there to bounce off ideas and to fulfill requests (such as being the first guest of honor to field e-mailed questions from readers of my Hot Hand website for an online chat). Curve Ball coauthor Jim Albert (with his writing partner Jay Bennett) inspired me to conduct and write about sports statistical analyses, and also responded to questions from website visitors. Professor Jim Sherman of Indiana University, whom I first met in the spring of 1984 when I traveled around looking at graduate schools, later shared stories with me of how thenIU mens basketball coach Bob Knight reacted to the initial hot hand studies with skepticism, because so many factors go into shooting a basketball. Jim also invited me to a sports decision-making conference nearly twenty years after our first meeting, at which I met prolific sabermetrics baseball writers Bill James and Rob Neyer. Bill has never hesitated to share his streakiness-related analyses with me and let me post them on my blog, whereas Robs mention of my analyses of the 2002 Oakland As winning streak in one of his ESPN.com columns greatly increased my sites hit count. Two Wall Street Journal writers, Stefan Fatsis (during his NPR appearances) and Numbers Guy Carl Bialik, have also mentioned the site on multiple occasions. David Myers was one of the first academics to cite my hot hand analyses and has always written passionately on the topic. Phil Birnbaums Sabermetric Research blog has been virtually a companion site to the Hot Hand blog, as weve referred each other to various sports-statistical studies over the years. Im also thankful to members of the local Lubbock, Texas, media (Ryan Hyatt, Snead & Gus) whove had me on their radio shows to discuss the hot hand and various ongoing streaks. These, and other characters youll meet in the book, have contributed their critical and analytic skills, and enthusiasm, to the study of the hot hand.

In the editorial arena, I thank Sylvia Niehuis, Michael OBoyle, and Steve Reifman, all of whom read chapters of my original book manuscript and provided helpful feedback, and my editors at Potomac Books, Elizabeth Demers and Julie Gutin, and their associates. Last, I want to acknowledge friends and family members who have contributed in various ways over the years. My friend since childhood growing up in Los Angeles, Gregg Miller, still to this day lets me know whenever a UCLA team, athlete, or alumnus has some kind of streak going.

Finally, I would like to thank my closest family members for all their years of encouragement: my wife, Sylvia Niehuis; my parents, Estherly and Leonard Reifman; my sister Lynn (and her family) and brother Steve. My uncle Irv also offered some of his insights on horse racing, which have made it into the book.

Alan Reifman, PhD, is Professor of Human Development and Family Studies at Texas Tech University. In addition to conducting research on the transition from adolescence to adulthood and the development of heavy drinking during this time, Reifman regularly teaches graduate statistics courses in his department. Since 2002, Reifman has combined his interests in sports streaks and statistical analysis to operate the Hot Hand in Sports website, the outgrowth of which is this book.

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______. Backe, Astros Avoid Three-Game Sweep to Rangers. ESPN.com , May 18, 2008. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=280518113 .

______. Bruins Score 3 Short-Handed Goals in 64 Seconds, Clinch Playoff Berth. ESPN.com , April 10, 2010. http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=300410001 .

______. Buehrle Sets Major League Record, but Takes Loss When Twins Rally. ESPN.com , July 28, 2009. http://espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=290728109 .

______. Complete Domination: Lakers Rout Spurs to Finish Off Sweep. Sports Illustrated (Online), May 27, 2001. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/2001/playoffs/news/2001/05/27/spurs_lakers_ap/ .

______. Deacons Aided by Going 32-for-32 from Line. ESPN.com , January 15, 2005. http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=250150154 .

______. DeRosas Third Career Slam Helps Rangers Reel in Angels. ESPN.com , August 4, 2006. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260804103 .

______. Fourth-ranked Pittsburgh Jumps Out Early, Outlasts No. 3 Syracuse. ESPN.com , January 17, 2011. http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=310170221 .

______. Garrett Wittels Hitting Streak Ends ESPN.com , February 19, 2011. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=6137761 .

______. Indianas Davis Notches First Win Against Kentucky. ESPN.com , December 10, 2005. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=253440096 .

______. Iowas Barrage of 3s Comes Too Late in Loss to No. 12 Indiana. ESPN.com , January 2, 2008. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=280022294 .

______. Jeanette Pohlen, Cardinal End Huskies 90-Game Winning Streak. ESPN.com , December 30, 2010. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/recap?gameId=303640024 .

______. Kobe Dazzles Wizards in Final Meeting with MJ. ESPN.com , March 28, 2003. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=230328013 .

______. Kobe Scores 50 (Again), Leads Lakers Past Hornets. ESPN.com , March 23, 2007. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=270323003 .

. LeBron Bewilders Pistons as Cavaliers Inch Closer to NBA Finals. ESPN.com , May 31, 2007. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=270531008 .

______. Mavericks Rally Based on 49 Straight Free Throws. ESPN.com , May 19, 2003. http://espn.go.com/nba/recap/_/id/230519024/dallas-mavericks-vs-san-antonio-spurs .

______. No. 4 Wazzu Cant Stop Love, UCLA as Perfect Start Ends. ESPN.com , January 12, 2008. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=280120026 .

______. OSU Womens Basketball: Seals Double-Double Lifts Tech Past Oklahoma St. ESPN.com , February 21, 2009. http://newsok.com/article/3347773 .