David L. Olson - Enterprise Risk Management Models

(1)

(2)

(3)

Charles Perrow contended that humans are creating technologies that are high risk because they are too complex, involving interactive complexity in tightly coupled systems. Examples include dam systems, which have provided a great deal of value to the American Northwest and Midwest, but which also create potential for disaster when dams might break; mines, which give access to precious metals and other needed materials but which have been known to collapse; and space activities, which demonstrate some of mankinds greatest achievements, as well as some of its most heartbreaking failures. Nuclear systems (power or weapon) and airline systems are designed to be highly reliable, with many processes imposed to provide checks and balances. Essentially, humans respond to high risk by creating redundant and more complex systems, which by their nature lead to a system prone to greater likelihood of systems failure.

Technological innovation is a manifestation of human progress, but efforts in this direction have yielded many issues. In the energy field, nuclear power was considered the solution to electrical supply 50 years ago. While it has proven to be a viable source of energy in France and other European countries, it has had problems in the US (Three Mile Island) and in the former Soviet Union (Chernobyl). There is a reticence on the part of citizens to nuclear power, and the issue of waste disposal defies solution. Even in Europe the trend is away from nuclear. The Federal Government in the US did not license new plants for decades, despite technological advances developed by national laboratories. Coal remains a major source of electrical energy fuel, although there are very strong questions concerning the need to replace it for carbon footprint reasons. Natural gas is one alternative. Wind power is another. Solar energy has been proposed. All of these alternatives can be seen to work physically, if not economically. The question of energy was further complicated with the recent large-scale adoption of fracking . This technique introduces risk and uncertainty not only to itself, but its inclusion changes decision-making regarding all sectors of energy.

All organizations need to prepare themselves to cope with crises from whatever source. In an ideal world, managers would identify everything bad that could happen to them, and develop a contingency plan for each of these sources of crisis. It is a good idea to be prepared. However, crises by definition are almost always the result of nature, malicious humans, or systems catching us unprepared (otherwise there may not have been a crisis). We need to consider what could go wrong, and think about what we might do to avoid problems. We cannot expect to cope with every contingency, however, and need to be able to respond to new challenges.

Enterprise risk management, especially in finance and accounting, is well-covered by many sources. This book will review the types of risks faced within supply chains as identified by recent sources. We will also look at project management, information systems, emergency management, and sustainability aspects of supply chain risk. We will then look at processes proposed to enable organizations to identify, react to, and cope with challenges that have been encountered. This will include looking at risk mitigation options. One option explored in depth will be the application of value-focused analysis to supply chain risk. We will then seek to demonstrate points with cases from the literature. We will conclude this chapter with an overview.

There is a rapidly growing body of literature concerning risk management, to include special issues in Technovation, viewed five major components to a framework in managing supply chain risk.