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Martha Amram - Real options: managing strategic investment in an uncertain world

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In capital investing, as in life, you always have options. In todays extremely turbulent world, managers recognize how risky the most valuable investment opportunities often are, and how useful a flexible strategy can be. Thats why they want to know all their options. Yet many current financial assessment tools fail to identify what investors can do to capitalize on future uncertain events. Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka suggest a smarter new way to think about strategic investments in terms of real options. By applying options thinking--the concept behind the recent Nobel Prize-winning work on financial options--to the evaluation of nonfinancial assets, this innovative approach brings a financial market discipline to the evaluation of a companys opportunities. Using real options theory, managers can more effectively target crucial opportunities to redeploy, delay, modify, or even abandon capital-intensive projects as events unfold. Corporate executives in finances, investments, and project management should share this book with decision makers in information technology, strategic planning, corporate restructuring, venture capital, and law. Through timely case studies, the authors show managers how to use real options to evaluate investments and create exit strategies in R&D, product design, contracts, and information technology. By linking strategic vision and tactical project decisions, Real Options helps to improve capital investment planning and results.

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Page i
Real Options
Page ii
Financial Management Association
Survey and Synthesis Series
The Search for Value: Measuring the Company's Cost
of Capital
Michael C. Ehrhardt
Lease or Buy? Principles for Sound Decision Making
James S. Schallheim
Derivatives: A Comprehensive Resource for Options
Futures, Interest Rate Swaps, and Mortgage Securities
Fred D. Arditti
Managing Pension Plans: A Comprehensive Guide
to Improving Plan Performance
Dennis E. Logue and Jack S. Rader
Efficient Asset Management: A Practical Guide to
Stock Portfolio Optimization and Asset Allocation
Richard O. Michaud
Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an
Uncertain World
Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
Page iii
Real Options
Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World
Martha Amram and
Nalin Kulatilaka
Page iv Disclaimer Some images in the original version of this book are not - photo 2
Page iv
Disclaimer
Some images in the original version of this book are not available for inclusion in the netLibrary eBook.
To our families
Aurelle, Oz, and Yosi
Nishan, Ishika, and Mandy
Copyright 1999 President and Fellows of Harvard College
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
03 02 01 00 99 54
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Amram, Martha, 1957
Real options: managing strategic investment in an uncertain world
/ Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka.
p. cm. - (Financial Management Association survey and
synthesis series)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-87584-845-1 (alk. paper)
1. Options (Finance) 2. Institutional investments.
I. Kulatilaka, Nalin, 1953- . II. Title. III. Series.
HG6024.A3A47 1999
332.64'5-dc21 98-22392
CIP
The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American
National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials
Z39.49-1984.
Text design by Wilson Graphics & Design (Kenneth J. Wilson)
Page v
CONTENTS
Preface
vii
Part I
The Real Options Potential
1
Chapter 1
Introduction
3
Chapter 2
Uncertainty Creates Opportunities
13
Chapter 3
Option Valuation: The Nobel Prize-Winning Breakthrough
29
Chapter 4
From Wall Street to Main Street: Options on Real Assets
47
Chapter 5
Disciplined Strategy
63
Chapter 6
Quick Lessons
79
Part II
The Real Options Solution Process
87
Chapter 7
The Four-Step Solution Process
89
Chapter 8
Calculating Option Values
107
Chapter 9
Adjusting for Leakage in Value
127
Part III
A Portfolio of Applications
141
Chapter 10
Valuing a Start-up
143
Chapter 11
Investing in a Start-up
149
Chapter 12
Exploring for Oil
155
Chapter 13
Developing a Drug
163
Chapter 14
Investing in Infrastructure
169

Page vi
Chapter 15
Valuing Vacant Land
175
Chapter 16
Buying Flexibility
181
Chapter 17
Combining Real and Financial Flexibility
187
Chapter 18
Investing to Preempt Competitors
193
Chapter 19
Writing a License
199
Part IV
Conclusion
205
Chapter 20
Changing the Questions We Ask
207
Appendix
A Quick Introduction to Discounted Cash Flow and the Estimation of Volatility
211
Guide to Literature
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