John Mauldin - The John Mauldin Classics Collection

Contents

FOREWORD

Those of you who have been reading Thoughts from the Frontline , the weekly newsletter I have been publishing for more than a decade, know that I am a constant observer of the global economy, sorting through a massive amount of information each week. Over the decades, I have watched stock markets rise and fall, interest rates climb and decline, housing markets reach unprecedented highs and lows, and more recently, debt crises threaten the financial stability of entire countries. And not only do I write about these events in my newsletter, I have also penned five books on finance and investing, often predicting the ebb and flow of the tide before major events and detailing how I came to my conclusions.

In todays increasingly complex and interconnected world, you need to have a broad perspective on the financial markets. You should pay attention to what is happening in China or Greece or Brazil because global events can impact the performance not only of the stock market, but also of every part of your investment portfolio. To make more informed investment choices, you must understand the global marketswhere they were, where they are, and where theyre likely to head.

Making sense of all the available economic and other data can be daunting. I hope that my analysis is lucid enough to provide you with a solid perspective so that you can be a shrewder investor, whether youre investing on your own or with the guidance of an advisor.

John Wiley & Sons, my publisher, has assembled this e-Book set of three of my best-selling books. Included here are Bulls Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market ; Just One Thing: Twelve of the Worlds Best Investors Reveal the One Strategy You Cant Overlook ; and Endgame : The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything , which I co-authored with Jonathan Tepper.

Endgame was published in 2011 and focuses more closely on the collapsing economies around the world. The two other books were first published more than five years ago, but the information and insights in them are timeless and still valuable for anyone interested in the world of finance.

Im fortunate enough to have worked and interacted with some of the best minds in business today and they have helped me shape my views. And youmy readershave responded with both enthusiasm and skepticism, calling me out when you disagree with my views and correcting me when my calculations have errors. But most of all, you have asked me to continue to speak and write on what is happening around the world.

Whether youre sitting in your backyard in La Jolla, California, flying to Singapore, or riding the subway in New York, these three e-Books will provide you with a mix of history, investment knowledge, and hopefully, some humor along the way.

John Mauldin

May 2012

Contents

To Eunice, who keeps me on target

Copyright 2004 by John F. Mauldin. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Acknowledgments

There are so many people who have been a big part of making this book possible. Words cannot express my gratitude to those who graciously allowed me to intrude upon their busy schedules when I needed data, statistics, feedback, and comments. A work of this size and scope is clearly not from just my own limited resources.

There were a number of people whose ideas directly contributed to significant parts of this book. Rob Arnott, Ed Easterling, James Montier, and Michael Alexander all contributed important ideas and in some cases the basic ideas for whole chapters and sections.

I regularly read a number of writers whose ideas permeate this book as they have helped shape my thinking. I am especially grateful to my friends and fellow analysts Bill Bonner, Art Cashin, Dennis Gartman, Bill King, Richard Russell, and Greg Weldon for their daily commentaries.

I regularly read and should note the work and writings of Martin Barnes, Peter Bernstein, Lord Alex Bridport and Roy Damary in Geneva, Chuck Butler, Mark Faber, Bill Gross, Gary Halbert, Michael Lewitt, Paul McCulley, Gary North, Barry Ritholtz, Stephen Roach, Gary Shilling, Steve Sjuggerud, and Porter Stansberry.

I should note that none of these writers is responsible for any of the errors, wrong notions, or failed forecasts in the book. Those are all mine.

I mention a number of important books and newsletters in Appendix A that have helped me in my thinking and may be of value to you.

Thanks to my editor at Wiley, Debra Englander, for bearing with me through busted deadlines and working with me even when the book came in at twice the size. I have to mention my associate Harry Ward, who helped with the research, writing, and all the hard work of doing graphs, checking facts, getting permission for quotes, and so on. Thanks to Wayne Anderson for his editing help and to my daughter and assistant Tiffani for handling the details, and even more so to my bride (and favorite Canadian export) Eunice who keeps the operations flowing.

Many thanks to Jon Sundt, Matt Osborne, and Bob Amedeo at Altegris Investments, with whom I partner on the investment business side of my life, for letting me be absent for long periods, which probably cost them far more money than I will ever get in royalties.