Copyright 2011 by Greg Rand
All rights reserved under the Pan-American and International Copyright Conventions. This book may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system now known or hereafter invented, without written permission from the publisher, The Career Press.
CRASH BOOM!
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TYPESET BY GINA HOOGERHYDE
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Rand, Greg.
Crash boom! : make a fortune in today's volatile real estate market / by Greg Rand.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-60163-175-6 -- ISBN 978-1-60163-651-5 (ebook) 1. Real estate investment--United States. 2. Real property-
Purchasing--United States. 3. House buying--Unied States. 4. House selling--United States. I. Title.
HD255.R27 2011
2010054598
www.redwheelweiser.com
www.redwheelweiser.com/newsletter
For Dad.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
T hanks to the following people who made this maiden voyage possible: Marsha, Matt, Joe, Dan, and Arlyne, for giving me the freedom to pursue this; Paul Adler, for teaching me half of what I know about real estate investing; Mark Stevens, for convincing me that I am the smartest real estate guy in America; Vinny Pribish, Allene Reynolds, Dick and Gail Sullinger, Sebastian Parisi, Jimmy Bellarosa, Jack Harrington, Michael Stenger, Margaret McMillan, Frank Kessler, and Anne Kaminsky, for sharing their experiences of living through the Great Depression.
Finally, but most of all, Leah, Diana, and Patrick, for being my inspiration to think long-term.
CONTENTS
Chapter 1
An Entrepreneur's Explanation of the Great Depression
Chapter 2
Success Stories From the Great Depression
Chapter 3
A Participant's Explanation of the Great Recession
Chapter 4
The Anatomy of a Housing Meltdown
Chapter 5
Where Are We Now?
Chapter 6
You Can Own America
Chapter 7
Predictability
Chapter 8
The Supply and Demand Pendulum
Chapter 9
Fundamentals: The Drivers of Real Estate Wealth
Chapter 10
Do the Math
Chapter 11
The Ugliest Ducklings Become the Loveliest Swans
Chapter 12
Market Intelligence: Find a Rising Tide
Chapter 13
Set the Table
Chapter 14
Entrepreneurship Requires Vision: Plan Your Strategy
Chapter 15
The Snowball
Chapter 16
The Law of Proximity
Chapter 17
Own Where You Live, Own Where You Work
Chapter 18
Distressed Property
Chapter 19
The Buffet Is Open
Chapter 20
Seeing Into the Future
Conclusion
Out Into the World You Go. Good Luck and Stay in Touch
PREFACE
T his book is about taking control of your financial future and getting wealthy as a real estate entrepreneur. We all know that the economy cycles. It goes up, down, and up again. From boom to crash, and back to boom again. Why do so many people miss the booms and suffer the crashes? Fear. Lack of knowledge. Lack of resources. Maybe just lack of a plan.
I have only three objectives here. First, you must truly grasp the inevitability of the coming boom. This doesn't mean you should trust that it is coming in the next two years, but it is coming. The best demonstration of an economic cycle is when history repeats itself, so we will take lessons from the original, the Great Depression itself, and show how predictable The Great Recession really was. Equally as predictable is the boom that will come next. Internalize the inevitability of the coming boom, and you will have the faith and fortitude to secure a financially abundant life by playing the next cycle like a pro.
Second, I will provide you with a detailed road map on how to create a real estate investment business, very big or very small, that does not rely on luck. Herein are the tried and true secrets of the professional real estate investment industry. Decades of experience and study have produced the principles and strategies contained in this book. You won't learn a gimmicky approach that has been invented by one investment guru, but the wisdom of hundreds of successful investors at all levels.
My third objective is to get you to take action. Breakthroughs in life begin when you decide that it is all up to you. This economic crisis, while predictable and similar to the Great Depression, is also unique in the way that the housing market played a central role. It is true that this is a once-in-a-generation crisis. It is also true that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity. It's time to focus on the other side of the coin.
Think for a moment about the times in your life when you had the benefit of hindsight, and you beat yourself up for not capitalizing on some financial trend that seemed so obvious in retrospect.
Did you miss Microsoft, Yahoo, Ebay, Google, Apple, and Facebook?
Did you buy real estate in the 1990s and ride the biggest part of the boom, or did you miss it?
Are you always in search of the next macro-trend that you can capitalize on? Well, you've found it. Not just any trend, but the biggest real estate gold rush in a generation.
Mark these words. You are here, right now, being confronted with the opportunity to play a major financial trend with near-perfect timing. We are at the starting point of the next real estate wave. Don't let yourself look back in five years and realize that you missed it.
Ask yourself this: what does it feel like to buy low? It is lonely and frightening, so read on and allow your confidence to be restored. Read on and open your mind to learning a business you've always wanted to master. Read on and get ready to ride the next wave. It could change your life.
This is the opportunity you've been waiting for. Seize it, and if not, don't blame me.
INTRODUCTION
The worst economic downturn since the Great Depression!
Everyone
I am not an economist or a historian. Throughout my entire life, I have heard about the Great Depression, but never learned much about it. During the last few years, it has been conjured up by media figures, politicians, and neighbors at every backyard barbecue in America. I was never really convinced that the comparison was accurate. Sure, I heard everyone parroting Warren Buffet, saying that the economy was going to go off the cliff if the federal government didn't bail it out. Every night on the evening news, we all heard about how unemployment and mortgage defaults were skyrocketing, and that home values and consumer confidence were plummeting. This was an assault on consumer confidence like I had never seen in my life. But something wasn't quite right.
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