Rob Robbins - Tactical Trend Trading: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Markets
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Follow trends and make money, or dont follow trends and dont make money. Robert Robbins wants investors to follow trends. His effort is to be saluted. Michael W. Covel, bestselling author of Trend Following, The Complete Turtle Trader, and Trend Commandments
A must-read for both the experienced and newcomers. The student has bypassed his mentor. Ralph Bloch, consultant at Bulls, Bears, & Bloch
Rob presents both the new and experienced trader with insights needed for successful trading. As a long-time trend follower, I share many of Robs thoughts in Tactical Trend Trading. If you are truly interested in learning an investment strategy without the hype from a real trader, then this is the one definitive source. Andrew Abraham, author of Learn How to Trend Follow
Conventional wisdom has long insisted that the bestif not the onlystock market strategy worth employing is the traditional buy-and-hold model. But buy-and-hold investing is no match for todays turbulent markets, where real change happens every day and companies and entire industries are stamped out in the blink of an eye. Fortunately, there is a better way, one that enables market participants to preserve their capital while increasing their net gains in even the most volatile of markets. That way is trend trading, and with Tactical Trend Trading as your guide, you will be better prepared than ever before to tackleand profit fromevery curveball that todays topsy-turvy markets throw your way.
Written by hedge fund manager and trend trader Robert Robbins, Tactical Trend Trading starts out from the basic premise that if market participants learn to embrace change, they will be better able to harness its ability to unlock profits in every corner of the markets. To that end, Robbins equips you not only with the technical trading tools you need to analyze the market backdrop and identify and trade with market-prevailing trends, but also psychological guidelines that will enable you to blast through the emotional obstacles that stand in the way of profit generation and risk control. Rich in detail yet easy to digest and implement, Tactical Trend Trading covers:
- The basics of trend trading, including what it is, its primary benefits and drawbacks, what type of commitment it entails, and how you can use it every day to profit from market volatility;
- How to leverage technical analysis and sentiment indicators to pinpoint profit-generating stocks, sectors, and trends, predict market corrections, and execute perfectly timed trades;
- Mental strategies for surmounting the ingrained psychological and emotional habits that prevent traders from realizing true financial success;
- Techniques for developing a systematic approach to the markets that will enable you to survive and thrive in up, down, and sideways markets;
- And much more.
Along the path to becoming a successful trend trader, your technical acumen and mental fortitude will be tested every step of the way. Prepare yourself for the brave new world of todays ever-changing financial markets with Tactical Trend Trading, which provides you with all the moneymaking insights you need to capture trends, trade with the flow, and pull in profits, regardless of whether market conditions are good or bad.
What youll learn- Why todays turbulent markets have rendered buy-and-hold investing obsolete and how trend trading can help you thrive in even the most volatile of market conditions
- Techniques for identifying and trading in concert with the primary trend of a market
- How to select the most profitable bullish and bearish stocks and set your entry and exit prices
- Specific tactics for profiting from a wide variety of chart patterns, from rectangles and rounding bottoms to flags, wedges, head-and-shoulders formations, and more
- Why risk control and discipline are the two most important tools in any trend traders arsenal
- Psychological guidelines that separating winning traders from the rest of the pack and tips for staying in the trend trading game
Tactical Trend Trading is a guide to the fast-paced world of trend trading for those with some experience actively trading or investing in the financial markets but who lack the specific technical knowledge or psychological framework that is crucial to trend trading success. Specifically, this book will appeal to investors who are tired of seeing their portfolios decimated by every major move the market makes and want to understandand profit fromthe rapid rate of change and turmoil underlying their assets.
Table of Contents- Tactical Trend Trading
- The Market Backdrop
- Setups and Chart Patterns
- Technical Tactics
- Market Considerations
- Systematic Trend Following
- Discipline and Risk Control
- Pitfalls
- Philosophy
- Summing It All Up
- Appendix
Rob Robbins: author's other books
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Tactical Trend Trading: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Markets
Copyright 2012 by Robert Robbins
All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the publisher.
ISBN-13 (pbk): 978-1-4302-4479-0
ISBN-13 (electronic): 978-1-4302-4480-6
Trademarked names may appear in this book. Rather than use a trademark symbol with every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use the names only in an editorial fashion and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark.
President and Publisher: Paul Manning
Acquisitions Editor: Morgan Ertel
Editorial Board: Steve Anglin, Mark Beckner, Ewan Buckingham, Gary Cornell,
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Hutchinson, Michelle Lowman, James Markham, Matthew Moodie, Jeff Olson,
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Gwenan Spearing, Matt Wade, Tom Welsh
Coordinating Editor: Rita Fernando
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Cover Designer: Anna Ishchenko
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The information in this book is distributed on an as is basis, without warranty. Although every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this work, neither the author(s) nor Apress shall have any liability to any person or entity with respect to any loss or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly by the information contained in this work.
This work is dedicated to those
who have helped make it possible.
To my wife Nicole and my son Logan:
You both mean everything to me and Im truly
lucky to have such a great family.
To my brothers Mike and Jimmy,
and my mother and father: Thank you for
your support and love through the years.
To Luciano, Rich, and my investment brothers
in arms: Thank you for the ideas, the camaraderie,
and your trust.
To my mentor Ralph Bloch: Thank you for
taking a chance and sharing your wisdom.
Robert Robbins, CFA, started his financial career in 1994 in stock market research. From 1995 to 1999, he worked as a stock market strategist, using technical analysis to drive sector strategy, investment ideas, equity strategy, and macro research. In 1999, he started Robbins Capital, LLC, an investment adviser and fund manager, and he served as its portfolio manager. Since 2011, Robbins has been the sole principal, portfolio manager, and president of everTrend Global, LLC, a systematic macro investment fund. Robbins has been quoted in Barrons and the St. Petersburg Times and has provided his insights and knowledge into the stock market on several television newscasts.
It was April of 1994, and the market was in a correction. The S&P 500 was in a waterfall decline that had carried it down 10% from its first-quarter peak. Under the surface, the action was far worse. Small-cap stocks were being obliterated, with bids falling away and 20-30% drops common across a broad spectrum of industries. I was working in the research department of a large brokerage firm, and, as I walked out of my office and turned into the hallway, the sight of half a dozen fundamental analysts huddled around the quote machine with a palpable look of anxiety splayed upon their faces will be forever etched in my mind.
I joined the group in watching the blinking red lights signaling the slaughter as clearly as cannon smoke did a few centuries ago. It was a mess; stocks were in full retreat, panic was in the air. The source of the analysts confusion centered on the fact that, while the market was coming apart at the seams, their stocks and industries were reporting no fundamental problems. Business was good, outlooks were fineor so their CFO and CEO contacts were telling them. The dichotomy between the fundamental situation and the market situation couldnt have been starker, and their confused looks and anxious tones confirmed that they couldnt make sense of the situation. It was cognitive dissonance writ large. They had both failed to foresee the sell-offs in stocks they were intimately acquainted with, and they had no sense as to when the bloodletting would end.
At the far end of the hall, the situation was far different. Our technical analyst, Ralph Bloch, was widely known in Wall Street circles and a veteran with over 30 years of experience. His stock market method was altogether different from that of the fundamental analysts. Instead of battling against the reality of the prices on the quote machines, he was in tune with them, and his method analyzed the core supply/demand situation of the macro marketplace itself. He had correctly called the sell-off and, based on the high put/call readings that he was seeing, was now looking for a quick end to this steep drop. I had been reading Ralphs daily missives for a few months, and his work intrigued me enough to lead me to start a dialogue with him and to read Edwards and Magees classic Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. He was a forceful personality and confident in his technical abilities.
Some days later, I asked him why these fundamental analysts seemed so lost in analyzing the prices of the stocks they were close to. He laughed and then told me a joke. An American was on vacation in New Zealand, and as he drove down a small, winding road, he came upon an incredibly large herd of sheep. He stopped his car and looked out over the rolling hillside. The owner of the sheep came up to him after a few minutes and saw the look of wonder on his face, so he said to him, If you can tell me how many sheep I have, then you can pick one out and keep it. The man laughed arrogantly and began counting. After only a few minutes, he turned to the shepherd and said, Sir, you have 1,133 sheep. Amazed, the shepherd stood back, then proceeded to tell the man that there were five grades of sheep and he could now pick his sheep. The man climbed up the hillside, picked his sheep, and returned. He saw that the shepherd was now smiling. Whats so funny? the man asked. The shepherd then posed a challenge to him, saying, If I can guess your occupation, will you give me my sheep back? The American quickly agreed, thinking, There are literally thousands of occupations out there. How would he possibly be able to guess correctly? The shepherd cleared his throat and guessed, Youre a fundamental stock analyst, arent you? Perplexed, the man queried, How could you possibly know? In an even tone, the shepherd replied, Well, youre obviously very good with numbers, but then you picked the worst one!
Ralphs joke, which highlights the differences between fundamental and technical analysis, stayed with me, and I eventually switched to the technical method that I now employ in my trading. Technical analysis has been the core of my investment philosophy for many years now, and I continue to see the advantages of this pragmatic approach to analyzing the supply and demand dynamics that shape the prices we see every day in markets, ranging from stocks to bonds, from commodities to currencies. But as trustworthy as this investment style has proved to be over the years, my methodology has evolved and grown over time, and I now use a blend of technical analysis and trend trading, an approach I like to refer to as
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