Joëlle Gergis - Humanitys Moment: A Climate Scientists Case for Hope

PRAISE FOR HUMANITYS MOMENT

I am in awe of Jolles courage and clarity. This book is a gift to the world.

Jess Hill

Lucid, heartfelt, devastatingly clear-eyed but also inspiring in its passionate plea for change, Humanitys Moment is necessary reading.

James Bradley

A compelling account from deep inside the recent IPCC climate science assessment. The pages are stained with the authors tears, hopes, heart and soul.

Professor David Karoly

Ive been waiting for an IPCC scientist to write this book. Where does someone charged with delivering the globe the stark existential truths find their hope; how do they navigate a path forward? How wonderful that Jolle, a nature lover with a poets sensibility, has been the one to do it.

Sarah Wilson

In Humanitys Moment, Jolle Gergis, a leading climate scientist and gifted author, manages to unpack the science behind the climate crisis in a way that is authoritative, gripping, and very personal. Read her engaging, first-hand account of the latest UN climate report to have both hope and inspiration as we tackle the greatest challenge we have faced as a species.

Professor Michael E. Mann

An important update on our climate problem.

Professor Tim Flannery

Published by Black Inc.,

an imprint of Schwartz Books Pty Ltd

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Collingwood VIC 3066, Australia

www.blackincbooks.com

Copyright Jolle Gergis 2022

Jolle Gergis asserts her right to be known as the author of this work.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior consent of the publishers.

9781760643232 (paperback)

9781743822531 (ebook)

Cover design by Akiko Chan

Text design Akiko Chan

Typesetting by Typography Studio

Index by Belinda Nemec

Botanical illustrations by Yuliya Derbisheva VLG, Iya Balushkina, Luchioly and AkvarellDesign / Shutterstock

Some material in this book was first published in Griffith Review, The Monthly, The Guardian, The Saturday Paper, The Conversation and Harpers Bazaar. Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. The publisher apologises for any errors or omissions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future reprints or editions of this book.

For Josh; your light keeps me here...

PROLOGUE

________

Life on the frontline

ITS PITCH BLACK AS I slip out of bed, trying not to wake my husband. Its 5.15 a.m. on a Saturday in the dead of winter 2020; the last thing I feel like doing is leaving my downy cocoon to talk about our destabilising world.

As one of the dozen or so Australian lead authors involved in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, its my job to review thousands of peer-reviewed scientific studies and distil their key findings. Our task in Working Group 1 is to provide the scientific foundation for understanding the risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adapting to and avoiding dangerous levels of climate change. The cycle typically takes around six years to complete, from initial scoping to final government approval. Despite the outbreak of a deadly pandemic, work continues on, as the stakes are now so high. Our assessment forms the technical foundation for trying to achieve the Paris Agreement targets of keeping global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and as close to 1.5C as possible. Its the information that helps us figure out how to keep our planetary conditions safe for humanity.

The first volume of this global climate assessment report is due out in mid-2021, and this mornings meeting is one of many since the process started back in June 2018. Our second draft has just come back from government and expert review; we now have 51,387 technical comments to address ahead of the Final Government Draft that will go to the UN for approval. Todays task is to come up with a strategy for responding to each comment assigned to our chapter and revising our text to meet our deadline.

Before embarking on the IPCC process, I had managed to remain emotionally detached from the work that I do. I could focus on my research, reporting findings, and not allow their implications to sink in too deeply. I was okay as long as I didnt look at images of scorched animals, distressed farmers and ravaged landscapes long enough to feel the sting of it. My work felt clean, clinical, safely partitioned from my emotions. But being involved in a UN process reconfigures your worldview; it forces you to zoom out and take in the world as a whole. My chapter team alone spans scientists from Colombia to France, Russia to Cameroon, Israel to India. Im lucky to form part of our teams trans-Tasman contingent; the AustraliaNew Zealand alliance, solid as always.

As I roll out of bed on this dark winters morning, my nerves are shot: its been a hell of a year. But if I dont get up, Ill miss the opportunity to represent Australias scientific community in this global process. At the rate were going, by the time the next IPCC report comes out likely around 2030 the world will have blown the carbon budget required to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. In my darker moments, I fear that we may have already crossed an invisible threshold, pushing the planetary system past the point of no return. So as much as I need the rest, its time to haul myself out of bed and take one for the team.

* * *

As I jot down my task list in the notepad on my desk, I listen to the pre-dawn chorus first the kookaburras, then the lorikeets, followed by the plaintive currawongs. By the time the meeting ends, my usual alarm clock a huge flock of noisy corellas has screeched overhead, heralding the start of a new day. Although I sometimes feel aggrieved by the terrible time zones of these meetings, more often than not I feel lucky to live in a landscape that still feels so alive, still part of a thriving ecosystem. Over 200 bird species make this pocket of northern New South Wales, Australia, their home. At these ungodly hours, nature thrives, reminding me that so much hangs in the balance in a country like mine. We are one of the planets most biodiverse, with more unique plant and animal species than anywhere else on Earth. Like Brazil, Papua New Guinea and Madagascar, Australia is a global biodiversity hotspot. As David Attenborough recently reminded us: You are the keepers of an extraordinary section of the surface of this planet... what you say, what you do, really, really matters.

United Nations member countries put forward nominations for 911 regional experts to compile the IPCCs Sixth Assessment Report, all of us assessed by our contribution to published scientific research. From these nominations, 234 scientists from sixty-six countries were selected to serve as lead authors on the Working Group 1 report to provide the necessary expertise to conduct the assessment across a range of disciplines. Just over a quarter of us are women, with the southwest Pacific which includes Australia accounting for only 9 per cent of the voices at the table.