Published in 2008 by Highdown
an imprint of Raceform Ltd
Compton, Newbury, Berkshire, RG20 6NL
Copyright Dave Nevison and David Ashforth 2008
The right of Dave Nevison and David Ashforth to be identified as the authors of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publishers.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 978-1-905156-45-0
Cover design by Adrian Morrish
Designed by Fiona Pike
Printed by Creative Print and Design, Wales
INTRODUCTION
WHEN IVE WON 10,000, which I did yesterday, I like to celebrate. I dont want to drive home and write it in a ledger, then sit and gloat, like some miser in a long dark coat in a Charles Dickens novel. If Ive had a big win I drink, I dance, sometimes I even sing. Ive been known to stand on a table. Ive been known to fall off. Not everyone approves of this. There is probably tut-tutting, shaking of heads and comment on the fact that I am 45 and should know better. But the way I look at it, most days arent winning days and life is not always going well, so when it is, I make the most of it, while I can. Im not a bad loser but Im a bloody good winner, and if a big ship comes in I like people to know about it. I dont keep quiet, smile contentedly to myself and stroll down from the grandstand unnoticed. I shout, loudly.
Of course, I need the money, but Im also addicted to the thrill of getting it right. If I do, it makes me happy, and when Im happy, I celebrate. If Ive backed a long-priced winner and the grandstand goes silent, I make the loudest noise possible because there are a lot of idiot punters on the racecourse who always yell when the favourite goes in. When Ive backed a winner that they just could not find, I want to let them know that I was on it, because Im better at punting than they are. Ive got a big ego.
So, Im a very good celebrator, and Im gregarious. I like to have a good time with my friends. Yesterday evening we started off with a couple of bottles of Montrachet and Gevrey-Chambertin. I dont know much about wine, but those ones taste wonderful, and when Ive had a particularly good day, thats what I get.
I expect you want to know how I won the 10,000. Ill tell you. (And then Ill tell you how Ive made a living, a good living, the only kind Im interested in, working as a professional gambler. Even better, Ill tell you the truth. It might help you, it might not. You just cant help most gamblers. You may be one of them.) I won it by having 500 at 20-1 on a horse called Rising Cross in the Park Hill Stakes at York on 8 September 2006. Its a very good win, but Ive won 10,000 a lot of times.
Rising Cross is a horse I know particularly well, because I used to own part of her. With some newcomers to racehorse ownership I formed the Heading for the Rocks Partnership and bought Rising Cross for 20,000. Thats very little for a racehorse, but then she is a little racehorse. Little body, but big heart: no effort too great to make, no gap too small to battle through that precious creature, a racehorse who tries as hard as she can. By September 2006 we no longer owned her, having sold her to Gary Tanaka for 325,000 after she finished second in the Epsom Oaks. I backed her at York because I thought 20-1 was too long a price; I thought she had a better chance than that. That is always why I back a horse, because I think the horse has a better chance of winning than the odds available suggest. I thought 12-1 was a more accurate reflection of her chance of winning the race. Of course, she was still much more likely to lose than to win. In gambling there are always a lot more defeats than victories. But that doesnt matter as long as the victories more than make up for the defeats. You can lose a lot of battles and still win the war, as long as you havent already committed suicide.
I dont know how Gary Tanaka celebrated he was under house arrest in New York at the time on fraud charges but, unusually for me, I celebrated quietly. I was in bed by one a.m. and up at five for another big day, St Leger day. Today.
The big racedays are my big betting days.
At the moment, they are busy knocking down Doncaster racecourse and building another one, so the St Leger is being held at York. Im in my city-centre hotel room surrounded by a collection of ratings: John Whitleys, Timeforms, Raceform Interactives. I dont do my own ratings. I used to, but I got bored with it. My strength lies in interpreting other peoples figures.
Early breakfast. Fruit, two natural yogurts, coffee. I eat quite healthily. On the other hand, I eat quite a lot.
At 7.30 a.m. I make my first telephone call of the day, to my business partner, Mark Smith. We are in this together. Ten minutes later Im on the phone to Neal Wilkins, who represents bookmaker Victor Chandler. On Saturdays, the bookmakers price the big races up early, because they dont want to miss out on all the banknotes that are waving about looking for a home. If they arent answering the phone, a rival bookmaker will be. Neals in bed, so I phone the organ grinder in Gibraltar. I want 5,000 to 900 on Hogmaneigh in the Portland Handicap, the first race of the day and a big betting sprint handicap, with nineteen runners. Its the sort of race a lot of punters dont like. Not me. I like races like that, big handicaps, with sixteen or more runners, the ones that pay out on the fourth place in each-way bets. Mathematically, punters often have an edge in those races.
Victor Chandler is a client-based bookmaker. His team know their clients inside out. If youve established your credentials as a mug punter, they will take a bet they wouldnt take from a shark. Now and again, the mug may want 1,000 on a horse that Victor doesnt really want to lay, but he wants to keep the mug happy. He knows that in the long run the mugs money is going only one way Victors way. The shark is different. Victor doesnt want to keep him happy. He wishes the shark would go away, because sharks have a horrible habit of biting. Victor hasnt become rich by being bitten, but he may put up with a small nip. So I have a nibble here, and a nibble there, trying to seem like a fairly harmless shark. The 900 isnt my last word on Hogmaneigh, but its probably the biggest word Victor Chandler will listen to.
Yes, thats all right.
Why Hogmaneigh? Because in my book hes an 11-4 chance, yet hes 11-2 with three bookmakers: Victor Chandler, BetDirect and Betfred. I dont try the last two because, in my experience, it is difficult to get on. Getting on can be harder work than deciding what to back. If Hogmaneigh wins, Chandler hasnt necessarily been a mug because hes obtained a professionals opinion for not very much money. Taking my bet could cost him 5,000, but if he cuts Hogmaneighs price because Ive backed it, it could save him much more than that. On the other hand, hell almost certainly cut the price anyway, because at 11-2 hes offering better odds than most other bookmakers, so all the money for Hogmaneigh will be flying his way.
Ive already backed Sixties Icon for the St Leger, ante-post. Ive had 2,000 at 5-1 and 3,000 at 7-2. Thats over 20,000 profit if he wins. Earlier this week I laid the same horse for 1,000 on Betfair at 11-10, and Ive just laid another 1,000 at 13-8. In other words, I backed him to lose at much shorter prices than Ive backed him to win. Im tempted to lay the lot and guarantee myself a profit. Its a question of whether Ive got the bottle to hold on.