Bruce Riedel - Avoiding Armageddon: America, India, and Pakistan to the Brink and Back

I ndia and Pakistan will be among the most important countries in the twenty-first century. In Avoiding Armageddon, Bruce Riedel clearly explains the challenge and the importance of successfully managing Americas affairs with these two emerging powers and their toxic relationship.

Born from the British Raj, the two nations share a common heritage, but they are different in many important ways. India is already the worlds largest democracy and will soon become the planets most populous nation. Pakistan, soon to be the fifth most populous country, has a troubled history of military coups, dictators, and harboring terrorists such as Osama bin Laden.

The longtime rivals are nuclear powers, with tested weapons. They have fought four wars with each other and have gone to the brink of war several times. Meanwhile, U.S. presidents since Franklin Roosevelt have been increasingly involved in the regions affairs. In the past two decades alone, the White House has intervened several times to prevent nuclear confrontation on the subcontinent. South Asia clearly is critical to American national security, and the volatile relationship between India and Pakistan is the crucial factor determining whether the region can ever be safe and stable.

Based on extensive research and Riedels role in advising four U.S. presidents on the region, Avoiding Armageddon reviews the history of American diplomacy in South Asia, the crises that have flared in recent years, and the prospects for future crisis. Riedel provides an in-depth look at the Mumbai terrorist attack in 2008, the worst terrorist outrage since 9/11, and he concludes with authoritative analysis on what the future is likely to hold for America and the South Asia puzzle as well as recommendations on how Washington should proceed.

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BRUCE RIEDEL is director of the Brookings Intelligence Project. He is the author of The Search for al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future and Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of the Global Jihad, both published by Brookings. He is a frequent media commentator on security and terrorism and is also a regular contributor to The Daily Beast.

Brookings Focus Books feature concise, accessible, and timely assessment of pressing policy issues of interest to a broad audience. Each book includes recommendations for action on the issue discussed.

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A BROOKINGS FOCUS BOOK

AMERICA, INDIA, AND PAKISTAN TO THE BRINK AND BACK

BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS
Washington, D.C.

Copyright 2013
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
www.brookings.edu

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data

Riedel, Bruce O.

Avoiding Armageddon: America, India, and Pakistan to the brink and back / Bruce Riedel.

pages; cm. (Brookings focus books)

Summary: Traces the history of the United States, India, and Pakistan as British colonies and their interaction in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, particularly in regard to relations between India and Pakistan, nuclear proliferation, the global jihad movement, and U.S. diplomatic efforts to stabilize conditions on the subcontinentProvided by publisher.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN 978-0-8157-2408-7 (hardcover: alkaline paper)

1. United StatesForeign relationsSouth Asia. 2. South AsiaForeign relationsUnited States. 3. IndiaForeign relationsPakistan. 4. PakistanForeign relationsIndia. 5. TerrorismSouth AsiaPrevention. 6. Nuclear arms controlSouth Asia. I. Title. II. Series: Brookings focus books.

DS341.3.U6R54 2013

327.73054dc23

2012046847

Composition by Cynthia Stock
Silver Spring, Maryland

This book is dedicated to my son, Christopher.