Baseball Prospectus - Baseball Prospectus 2021

BASEBALL
PROSPECTUS
2021

The Essential Guide to the 2021 Season

Edited by R.J. Anderson, Patrick Dubuque, and Craig Goldstein

Nathalie Alonso, Lucas Apostoleris, Rob Arthur, Darius Austin, Emma Baccellieri, Bill Baer, Mark Barry, Sydney Bergman, Nathan Bishop, Grant Brisbee, Craig Brown, Adrian Burgos Jr., Craig Calcaterra, Russell A. Carleton, Ben Carsley, Alexis Collins, Zach Crizer, Bradford William Davis, James Fegan, Noah Frank, Bailey Freeman, Ken Funck, Brendan Gawlowski, Mike Gianella, Steven Goldman, Bryan Grosnick, Jon Hegglund, Kamila Hinkson, Kendra James, Alex Kirshner, Justin Klugh, Keanan Lamb, Tom Ley, Rob Mains, Rachael McDaniel, Kelsey McKinney, Jake Mintz, Emily Nemens, Marc Normandin, Eric Nusbaum, Robert O'Connell, Sridhar Pappu, Jeffrey Paternostro, Kate Preusser, Tommy Rancel, David Roth, Jon 'Boog' Sciambi, Ginny Searle, Jarrett Seidler, Stephanie Springer, Elizabeth Strom, Matt Sussman, Jon Tayler, Luis Torres, Matt Trueblood, Collin Whitchurch, Randy Wilkins, Jasmyn Wimbish, Jeffrey Wiser, Kazuto Yamazaki, Clinton Yates

Craig Brown and Bret Sayre, Associate Editors Robert Au, Harry Pavlidis and Amy Pircher, Statistics Editors

Copyright 2021 by DIY Baseball, LLC.
All rights reserved

This book or any part thereof may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and the author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
paperback
ISBN-10: 1950716848
ISBN-13: 978-1950716845

Project Credits
Cover Design: Ginny Searle
Interior Design and Production: Amy Pircher, Robert Au

Layout: Amy Pircher, Robert Au

Cover Photos
Front Cover: Mookie Betts. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball icon courtesy of Uberux, from https://www.shareicon.net/author/uberux

Manufactured in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

This book is dedicated to
our friend Rob McQuown.

Thanks for the research, and
for everything else.

by Jon "Boog" Sciambi

A bout a decade ago, in what now feels like medieval times, I was asked to write a piece about broadcasting and analytics for Baseball Prospectusand that's the inelegant tapestry I wove, if indeed a tapestry can be woven by typing with fat, freckled sausage fingers. Honestly, I think I wrote it just as an excuse to tell the Chipper Jones story. But here we are, after 10 years of evolution and, at the risk of sounding like the needy Mayor Of Baseball Broadcasterville, I ask you, "How are we doing?!?!"

Much has changed since I wrote that article, revolutionary and evolutionary progress having been made. Too much, some might say, as data and shifts and all-or-nothing swings have altered the baseball viewing experience in a way many of us who love baseball consider troublesome. In general, though, the game has become even more analytically inclined since then, almost every team investing in "new-age information." So you can say without equivocation that baseballfront offices, media, players and fanshas never been more informed than it is today. Never been smarter, in other words. And sites like BP are partially to thank.

When I look back at what I wrote, a number of things jump out. First, I stole the OBP is life joke from BP alum Joe Sheehan, and I never gave him proper credit because I'm a dirty thief with no accountability or originality. Also, I need to copyright more accurate and therefore more delicious, and sell it for millions of dollars (though I'd settle for BP using it as the subheading for the site because I'm too lazy to go to the copyright office).

I still think erasing the noise is as important as ever. I know some will stay married to triple crown stats and winsand thats finebut theres an important reason to go light on that stuff: accuracy. The lowest standard to reach for a broadcaster is to simply stay out of the way and to be accurate. Being inaccurate and calling unnecessary attention to yourself are directly proportional. If teams are evaluating players and making in-game decisions based on certain types of information and statistics, its incumbent on us as chroniclers to speak in those terms as well. If teams arent using RBI or winning percentage as a way to measure and evaluate performance, we probably shouldnt be, either. If the game is smarter, and the broadcast is smarter, then the curious customer becomes smarter. We are there to frame the picture, and a stained frame distracts from the art we are all there to admire.

The trick is in finding the balance somewhere between accuracy and coma-inducing. As White Sox radio broadcaster Len Kasper says, One criticism of advanced stats is that some fans dont want to feel like theyre attending a math class when they watch a game." Formulas and lectures are not why people choose the escape hatch of entertainment. But, when used properly, advanced stats can actually help broadcasters tell the story more completely.

For example, a team that leads the league in defensive efficiency converts a lot of outs on balls in play. That concise description is often all that is needed to make the point without boring the customers who are there for the delicious hot dog with too many details on how the sausage is made. As Brewers announcer Brian Anderson says, "We apply more journalism when using analytics. Its important to be curious as to why decisions are made...we can still analyze whether something is right or wrong, that is always fun, but it is important to 'report' first so we can serve the audience better in a more applicable way. Beware not to choke the entertainment out of the process.

I think the broadcasting landscape has improved over the last 10 years as it relates to advanced stats. On ESPN, Jason Benetti support and illuminate. Context is crucial, so i think it's important for broadcasters to consistently cite the league-average on-base or slugging percentage, or the standard strikeout rate. We've spent so much time explaining what these things are over the last 10 years that we can now just reference them without the explanationthat in itself is a marked evolution, waves lapping upon the shore so consistently over the last 10 years that it has changed the lay of the coast.

I think one of the other points to be made about broadcasting in 2020 is that there is more time to filldespite all the efforts to speed the game up, the average time of a nine-inning game last year was about 17 minutes longer than in 2010. The ball is in play less frequently and the amount of time between pitches has grown. That means there is more time for broadcasters to say dumb s@#%. Its up to us to use that space better. For all the overanalysis that can consume the game, sometimes the bar doesn't need to be any higher than dont say dumb s@#%. Thirty years in this business, and that's my life advice as a philosopher. Vin Scully, I ain't.