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Frederick E. Taylor - The Runmakers: A New Way to Rate Baseball Players

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Statistics are the lifeblood of baseball. Managers pore over batting averages to determine game day lineups and batting orders; high number of runs batted in and low earned run averages receive praise from the press, higher salaries from the front office, and love from fans; and the fate of fantasy baseball players rises and falls with each statistical change. The prominence of the RC/27 and other more complex, formula-driven stats has made numbers even more important to understanding and appreciating the game. For all these baseball buffs and more, Frederick E. Taylor provides a new measure of hitting prowess that just might be a game changer.

Taylors potential runs per game (PRG) measure accounts for batters getting on base, advancing runners, and driving in runs, and it separates leadoff and second batters from those in the middle of the order. Taylor introduces the measure, explains how it works, and applies it to players past and present. He breaks the history of major league baseball into eight eras based on differences in runs scored per game. He systematicallyplayer-by-player and position-by-positioncompares the results of the PRG measure to those drawn from other statistics, such as on-base percentage and slugging average. Taylor shows that PRG is more accurate and that career clutch hitting is a myth.

Sabermetricians, baseball fans of all stripes, and anyone who earns a living from the sport will find a wealth of information and a whole new set of stats to obsess over in The Runmakers. Measuring baseball will never be the same.

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The Runmakers

The Runmakers Frederick E Taylor 2011 The Johns Hopkins University - photo 1

The Runmakers

Frederick E. Taylor

2011 The Johns Hopkins University Press All rights reserved Published 2011 - photo 2

2011 The Johns Hopkins University Press
All rights reserved. Published 2011
Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

The Johns Hopkins University Press
2715 North Charles Street
Baltimore, Maryland 21218-4363
www.press.jhu.edu

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Taylor, Frederick E.

The runmakers : a new way to rate baseball players / Frederick E. Taylor.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN-13: 978-1-4214-0010-5 (hardcover : alk. paper)

ISBN-10: 1-4214-0010-3 (hardcover : alk. paper)

1. Baseball playersRating of. I. Title.

GV865.A1T39 2011

796.3570727dc22

2010028479

A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library.

Special discounts are available for bulk purchases of this book. For more information, please contact Special Sales at 410-516-6936 or specialsales@press.jhu.edu.

The Johns Hopkins University Press uses environmentally friendly book materials, including recycled text paper that is composed of at least 30 percent post-consumer waste, whenever possible. All of our book papers are acid-free, and our jackets and covers are printed on paper with recycled content.

To my wife
RUTH HAGER TAYLOR
Enabler, Supporter, and Partner

Contents

1. THE ERA OF CONSTANT CHANGE, 18761892
The Age of Dan Brouthers

2. THE LIVE BALL INTERVAL, 18931900
The Age of Ed Delahanty

3. THE DEAD BALL ERA, 19011920
The Age of Ty Cobb

4. THE LIVE BALL ERA, 19211941
The Age of Babe Ruth

5. THE LIVE BALL CONTINUED ERA, 19421962
The Age of Ted Williams

6. THE DEAD BALL INTERVAL, 19631976
The Age of Hank Aaron

7. THE LIVE BALL REVIVED ERA, 19771992
The Age of Mike Schmidt

8. THE LIVE BALL ENHANCED ERA, 19932009
The Age of Uncertainty

Preface

There are many different kinds of baseball books, but most of them can be broadly classified as anecdotal, biographical, historical, or statistical. This book is a combination of those elementsbaseball statistics set in a historical framework supported by anecdotal and biographical data. All baseball books are concerned to some degree with statistics, since from its very beginning baseball has been heavily dependent on numbers. Using numbers is an indispensable means by which what takes place on the field is recorded and passed on to fans outside the ballpark and to fans in the future. Thats the way it has always been and the way it will always be. There may be debates about what the numbers mean and which ones are better, but as long as there is baseball there will be numbers. The very permanence of the box score is perhaps the supreme testimony to that reality.

I have friends who tell me they are baseball fans but not numbers people. Yet, when we discuss baseball, numbers always seem to be involved. What my friends actually mean is that they are comfortable with their own baseball numbers and uncomfortable with any other baseball numbers. They seek to support their positions with their numbers. The other numbers, they say, are for statistics buffs, not true baseball fans. The real difference between me and my friends is not between baseball people and numbers people but between one kind of baseball numbers people and another kind. All baseball fans are, in one way or another, numbers people because baseball and numbers are inextricably intertwined.

You do not have to be a statistics buff in order to understand this book. You will encounter numbers, for it is the performance of baseball players that we are discussing and how else can you compare performance than through the use of numbers? Baseball fans can appreciate the personalities of baseball players and the finer points of the game as a craft without getting involved in statistics. But can they make meaningful comparisons between players and interpret what takes place on the field without statistics?

I have dedicated this book to my wife, Ruth Hager Taylor. She has enabled me to pursue this book at a time in life in which we had expected to be off somewhere smelling the roses. Instead, she has become the catalyst in this projectlistener, typist, and emissary.

The other person whose help has been indispensible is my friend John Strunk, who guided me in using the computer as a more effective tool, reformatted my ragged draft into book form, and finalized the book for submission to the publisher. These tasks required enormous amounts of time, and I am very grateful for his help.

I am also very grateful for the invaluable help of my publisher, the Johns Hopkins University Press. Editor-in-Chief Trevor Lips- combe and Assistant Editor Greg Nicholl provided clear guidance and timely answers to questions. The Press staff have been both professional and accommodating. I appreciate the assistance of Kathy Alexander, Brendan Coyne, Julie McCarthy, Claire McCabe Tamberino, and Karen Willmes. I am especially indebted to Jeremy Horsefield, the copy editor, and Anne Whitmore, the production editor, with whom I have spent many hours reworking the manuscript. Everyone at the Press made the efforts of this first-time author an insightful and pleasurable experience.

My son, David, played the role of devils advocate, and my daughter, Diana, helped in the search for a publisher. Derek Oldham helped on computer techniques. Dr. Wm. James Moore went out of his way to help solve computer problems. Wladimir Andreff reviewed part of the manuscript, and Lee Williams read the manuscript for consistency. I thank my entire family for supporting me in this project.

Abbreviations

AVG

batting average

BB

walks (bases on balls)

BPPA

bases per plate appearance

DBE

Dead Ball Era

DBI

Dead Ball Interval

ECC

Era of Constant Change

ERA

earned run average

ERPG

earned runs per game

ERS

expected runs scored

HP

hit by pitch

HR%

home run percentage

LBC

Live Ball Continued

LBE

Live Ball Era

LBEE

Live Ball Enhanced Era

LBI

Live Ball Interval

LBR

Live Ball Revived

LSLR

least squares linear regression model

LWTS

linear weights

OBP

on-base percentage

OPS

on-base plus slugging

PRG

potential runs per game

RBI

runs batted in

RBI%

runs batted in percentage

RC

runs created

SLG

slugging average

SST

Strength, Skill, and Timeliness Award

TA

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