Noman - Pakistan A Political and Economic History Since 1947

An attempt has been made, in this introductory analysis, to provide a fairly comprehensive interpretation of Pakistan's development. Since a fair deal of literature covering the 1947-71 period is available, our coverage is biased towards post 71 events. None the less, provides a summary analysis of pre-1971 developments. This section has two objectives. First, to outline a general framework within which one can comprehend subsequent developments. Second, to provide basic background information to those not familiar with Pakistan's evolution. A chronology of major political events, and basic economic data, can be found at the beginning of the text.

There are two chapters in deals with the Ayub Khan era. The chapter lays particular emphasis on a broad theme running through the text that the political dynamics of Pakistan cannot be understood without reference to the form, structure and consequences of economic policies.

, dealing with the Bhutto era, has three chapters. The first deals with the question of civil-military relations. It suggests an explanation for the failure of the PPP to retain power in spite of a number of favourable circumstances. The following chapter examines the reasons for the somewhat chaotic nature of economic policy making under Bhutto. It offers an explanation of why certain economic policies were chosen and their link with subsequent political developments. The third chapter contains an analysis of Bhutto's populism. It discusses the ideological significance of the populist discourse and implicitly suggests an explanation for the continuing popularity of the Bhutto legacy.

ethnicity and the role of the state. Particular emphasis is placed on the political and economic effects of the large-scale migration to the Middle East. In our view, this process has resulted in a structural change within Pakistani society. Not only has it helped to sustain the Zia regime but it has also, simultaneously, altered the traditional pattern of political mobilisation. The urban classes which brought down Ayub and Bhutto were, between 1978 and 1985, the principal beneficiaries of the migratory process and hence could not be relied upon as eager catalysts for political change.

It is worth emphasising that our analysis of the Zia regime concentrates on the period prior to the incorporation of civilians in 1985-86. The liberalisation since 1985 has extended, at least temporarily, the parameters of permitted political activity. This has implied relatively limited recourse to repression to sustain the regime. Various groups have been accommodated within the new structure, breaking the regime's isolation.

An all-embracing analysis of economic and political events has inherent limitations. Complex issues are condensed and summarised. None the less, tracing the broad contours of diverse economic and political processes provides one with the somewhat indulgent opportunity of offering an integrated analysis of Pakistan's development. Any interpretation of this kind is unavoidably normative. Accordingly, our value judgements are explicit and will, one hopes, be accepted as preferences rather than prejudices.

Within a space of nine months Pakistan witnessed the dismissal of Prime Minister Junejo's government, the death of General Zia in a plane crash, the election of Benazir Bhutto and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. A fragile civilian government faces a daunting challenge. The institutional structure inherited by Benazir appears to have too many contradictions to be sustainable. The economy has reached a stage where structural reform measures are unavoidable. The extension of political liberties has been accompanied by a narrowing of economic and political options. Pakistan is gripped by a delirious mix of euphoria, fear and insecurity.

OMAR NOMAN

Oxford, 1989

Pakistan: Key Social Indicators

Source: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.