Nikolas K. Gvosdev - Russian Foreign Policy : Interests, Vectors, and Sectors

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Gvosdev, Nikolas K., 1969

Russian foreign policy : interests, vectors, and sectors / Nikolas K. Gvosdev, Christopher Marsh.

pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-4522-3484-7 (alk. paper)

1. Russia (Federation)Foreign relations21st century. I. Marsh, Christopher, 1969- II. Title.

JZ1616.G86 2014
324.47009051dc23 2013020368

This book is printed on acid-free paper.

13 14 15 16 17 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

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CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES, AND MAP

TABLES

FIGURES

MAP

PREFACE

O n April 12, 2012, in his last address to the State Duma as Russias prime minister, Vladimir Putin declared, The postSoviet period is over.

It is in a similar vein that we wrote this book as a study of Russian foreign policy, not Russias postSoviet foreign policy. While it is undeniable that the legacy bequeathed by the USSR continues to have a powerful influence on contemporary Russia, Russian foreign policy today is not a continuation of Soviet policy. For one, the main problems that faced Soviet leadersespecially the ideological rivalry with the West and Chinaare no longer the ones that concern the Russian foreign policy establishment. Secondly, Moscow must deal with its former imperial possessions and Soviet siblings as independent states with their own foreign policy interests and strategies (which are often at odds with those of the Kremlin). Thirdly, and by no means finally, the contemporary international political, economic, and security environment is drastically different from that of the Soviet eraso much so, in fact, that even if the Soviet Union still existed, a contemporary Soviet foreign policy would scarcely resemble its predecessor in any way.

The Soviet Union itself has been relegated to the rubbish heap of history, but the dead hand of the Soviet past continues to exert an unhelpful influence over the way in which current Russian actions on the world stage are interpreted and understood. Even the casual slips of the tongue by many U.S. politicians and policymakers, who mistakenly refer to the Soviet Union instead of Russia, reflect the inability of some to escape the cognitive frame of the Cold War, or at least the temptation to want to define the present by the past. To continue to do so will result in missed opportunities at best or dangerous strategic miscalculations at worst. In writing this book, it is our hope that we can contribute in some way to the debate over the sources and conduct of Russian foreign policy that is placed within its proper historical context, one that recognizes the influence of the Soviet era while not ascribing every action taken by Moscow as having roots in that time period.

One way we seek to do this is by disaggregating Russian foreign policy into actors and avenues of approach, what we call the sectors and vectors of Russian foreign policy. During the Soviet period, outside analysts often interpreted Soviet actions through the lens of Communist ideology. Again, the Soviet period is over, and Communist ideology itself has no influence whatsoever on Russian strategic thinking. Russia today is a new entity, still significantly influenced by the actions of the Soviet regime but not tied to the ideology that directed its actions. To understand its foreign policy behavior more clearly, we must see Russia for what it is: a multinational state that has reemerged from the ashes of the USSR and is seeking to find its proper place in the international system. It is now more useful to examine the interests and preferences of different sectors of Russian society, each with its own ideas as to which vectors best accommodate their needs. How sectors and vectors intersect and are mediated through the policy process is the rationale behind this book.

NOTE

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Nikolas Gvosdev would like to thank his colleagues at the U.S. Naval War College (especially those in the Europe-Russia Study Group) for their insights and support, beginning with the Provost, Ambassador Mary Ann Peters, and the chair of the National Security Affairs department, Dr. David Cooper, as well as Professors Tom Fedyszyn and Tom Nichols. He would like to thank