Martin McCauley - The Cold War 1949–2016

Greek mythology holds that Zeus once released two eagles at each end of the earth and ordered them to fly towards each other. A sacred stone, called the omphalos the navel of the world was placed where the eagles met. China saw itself as the resting place of the omphalos, the centre of the earth; then the Persian Empire; then the Ottoman Empire. The prominence of Western Europe from the sixteenth century led to the belief that the omphalos resided in the great European capitals. Eurocentric history saw Ancient Greece giving birth to Rome, Rome to Christian Europe, Christian Europe to the Renaissance, the Renaissance to the Enlightenment, the Enlightenment to political democracy and the Industrial Revolution. In the twentieth century the omphalos resided in Berlin but that soon passed; then Moscow and Washington claimed possession of the sacred stone. Will the twenty-first century see it again move back to Beijing?

Communism was the greatest challenge to the US and its allies in the second half of the twentieth century. Communism, wearing Chinese garb, is the great challenge of the present century. Terrorism is a secondary challenge. Communism, represented by the Soviet Union, China, Eastern Europe and a host of Third World countries, was easily comprehensible. Its ideas and ideals could be traced back to the European Enlightenment in the eighteenth century. It was a secular religion and its goal the kingdom of heaven on earth. Terrorism, with its suicide bombers, by way of contrast, is almost incomprehensible as its practitioners prefer the promise of heaven after death to living on earth. It presents a great intellectual challenge, probably a greater intellectual challenge than the ideas and ideals of Karl Marx.

On reflection, it is clear that the thinking of the rulers in the Kremlin was informed by the tenets of Marxism, but their actions were those of traditional Russian politicians engaged in their countrys influence and security. Except for a few years after the October Revolution, national interests took precedence over international interests. Protecting the revolution at home was given the highest priority.

Security is of the greatest concern to Russia during its history of a thousand years and more. The Mongols ruled Russia from 1240 to 1480. The country was invaded by a European power three times in just over a century: in 1812 by Napoleon, in 1914 by Kaiser Wilhelm, and in 1941 by Adolf Hitler. In contrast, modern American insecurity was only in the mind. Its geographical location ensured that it has never known invasion and occupation since gaining independence from Britain. Culture is also a significant factor in international behaviour. One can see the Soviet Unions attitude and actions as a continuation of the imperial Russian tradition. Blessed (or cursed) with few natural frontiers, Russia was always on the move. So was the US until the French and Spanish had been vanquished. The collapse of the Soviet Union left the US as the sole superpower and for a decade or so afterwards, inebriated with the wine of victory, believed it could shape the world according to its own norms.

The searing experience of lost wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has changed all that. Nowadays Washington is reluctant to become embroiled in conflicts far from its shores. If there is such a thing as the Obama Doctrine it consists of retreating from a world mission and concentrating on domestic affairs. How things have changed.

The other factor which is changing the global balance of power is China. The US is still the only superpower and militarily is the greatest force on the planet, but Beijing has proclaimed the China Dream which amounts to the Middle Kingdom ascending to the throne of world dominance. It still declares itself a communist power but its communism is unrecognisable from the version practised by the Soviet Union and its empire. It is single-party rule politically but economically it is capitalist. Just as the Soviet Union introduced a state and ideology unknown to the world in 1917, the Middle Kingdom is developing a system unknown hitherto. The commanding heights of the economy are in the states hands and thus it can be labelled state capitalism. However, the much more dynamic part of the economy consists of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Can these two coexist or will capitalism, as represented by the SMEs, eventually devour communism? Capitalism, after all, in order to flourish requires some elements of democracy. That is the experience of the last two centuries. Or will communist China evolve in such a way as to overturn the historical record? Xi Jinping and his team face a fascinating challenge as they turn the Middle Kingdom into a global powerhouse.

The Cold War during the second half of the twentieth century embraced the whole world; the Third World, especially, paid a heavy price for this. A nuclear war could not be fought by the superpowers so they engaged in proxy wars. This book spells out the genesis and conclusion of these conflicts. The Cold War was fought on many planes: political, economic, military, cultural, sporting, ideological, architectural, religious indeed there was no aspect of human endeavour which was excluded. It is an intriguing story, and the reader can experience some of the highs and lows of the various contests.

So the old Cold War is over but there is a new Cold War between old adversaries: Russia and the US have reignited the enmity which existed under Soviet communism. This reveals that Marxism was not the dominant feature of the old conflict. Had it been so, everything would be sweetness and light between Moscow and Washington today. Great power rivalry was and is a constant factor. Relations between the old enemies have reached a point where the US 2015 National Military Strategy judges Russia to be the greatest security threat. How has it come to this in a short span of twenty-five years?