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Friedman - The next 100 years: a forecast for the 21st century

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The next 100 years: a forecast for the 21st century: summary, description and annotation

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In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future--offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.;An introduction to the American Age -- The dawn of the American Age -- Earthquake: the U.S.-Jihadist war -- Population, computers, and culture wars -- The new fault lines -- China 2020: paper tiger -- Russia 2020: rematch -- American power and the crisis of 2030 -- A new world emerges -- The 2040s: prelude to war -- Preparing for war -- World War: a scenario -- The 2060s: a golden decade -- 2080: the United States, Mexico, and the struggle for the global heartland.

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ALSO BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AMERICAs SECRET WAR The Future of War THE - photo 1

ALSO BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN

AMERICA's SECRET WAR

The Future of War

THE INTELLIGENCE EDGE

THE COMING WAR WITH JAPAN

POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE FRANKFURT SCHOOL

For Meredith muse and taskmaster To him who looks upon the world rationally - photo 2

For Meredith, muse and taskmaster

To him who looks upon the world rationally, the world in turn presents a rational aspect. The relation is mutual.

GEORGE W. F. HEGEL

CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1
T HE D AWN OF THE A MERICAN A GE

CHAPTER 2
E ARTHQUAKE : T HE U.S.-J IHADIST W AR

CHAPTER 3
P OPULATION , C OMPUTERS, AND C ULTURE W ARS

CHAPTER 4
T HE N EW F AULT L INES

CHAPTER 5
C HINA 2: P APER T IGER

CHAPTER 6
R USSIA 20 2: R EMATCH

CHAPTER 7
A MERICAN P OWER AND THE C RISIS OF 2030

CHAPTER 8
A N EW W ORLD E MERGES

CHAPTER 9
T HE 2040S : P RELUDE TO W AR

CHAPTER 10
P REPARING FOR W AR

CHAPTER 11
W ORLD W AR : A S CENARIO

CHAPTER 12
T HE 2060S : A G OLDEN D ECADE

CHAPTER 13
2080: T HE U NITED S TATES , M EXICO, AND THE S TRUGGLE FOR THE G LOBAL H EARTLAND

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Atlantic Europe
The Soviet Empire
Yugoslavia and the Balkans
Earthquake Zone
Islamic WorldModern
U.S. River System
South America: Impassable Terrain
Pacific Trade Routes
Successor States to the Soviet Union
Ukraine's Strategic Significance
Four Europes
Turkey in 2008
Ottoman Empire
Mexico Prior to Texas Rebellion
China: Impassable Terrain
China's Population Density
Silk Road
The Caucasus
Central Asia
Poacher's Paradise
Japan
Middle East Sea Lanes
Poland 1660
The Skagerrak Straits
Turkish Sphere of Influence 2050
U.S. Hispanic Population (2000)
Levels of Economic and Social Development
Mexican Social and Economic Development
Author's Note

I have no crystal ball. I do, however, have a method that has served me well, imperfect though it might be, in understanding the past and anticipating the future. Underneath the disorder of history, my task is to try to see the orderand to anticipate what events, trends, and technology that order will bring forth. Forecasting a hundred years ahead may appear to be a frivolous activity, but, as I hope you will see, it is a rational, feasible process, and it is hardly frivolous. I will have grandchildren in the not-distant future, and some of them will surely be alive in the twenty-second century. That thought makes all of this very real.

In this book, I am trying to transmit a sense of the future. I will, of course, get many details wrong. But the goal is to identify the major tendenciesgeopolitical, technological, demographic, cultural, military in their broadest sense, and to define the major events that might take place. I will be satisfied if I explain something about how the world works today, and how that, in turn, defines how it will work in the future. And I will be delighted if my grandchildren, glancing at this book in 2100, have reason to say, Not half bad.

OVERTURE
AN INTRODUCTION TO THE AMERICAN AGE

I magine that you were alive in the summer of 1900, living in London, then the capital of the world. Europe ruled the Eastern Hemisphere. There was hardly a place that, if not ruled directly, was not indirectly controlled from a European capital. Europe was at peace and enjoying unprecedented prosperity. Indeed, European interdependence due to trade and investment was so great that serious people were claiming that war had become impossibleand if not impossible, would end within weeks of beginningbecause global financial markets couldn't withstand the strain. The future seemed fixed: a peaceful, prosperous Europe would rule the world.

Imagine yourself now in the summer of 1920. Europe had been torn apart by an agonizing war. The continent was in tatters. The Austro-Hun gar ian, Russian, German, and Ottoman empires were gone and millions had died in a war that lasted for years. The war ended when an American army of a million men intervenedan army that came and then just as quickly left. Communism dominated Russia, but it was not clear that it could survive. Countries that had been on the periphery of European power, like the United States and Japan, suddenly emerged as great powers. But one thing was certainthe peace treaty that had been imposed on Germany guaranteed that it would not soon reemerge.

Imagine the summer of 1940. Germany had not only reemerged but conquered France and dominated Europe. Communism had survived and the Soviet Union now was allied with Nazi Germany. Great Britain alone stood against Germany, and from the point of view of most reasonable people, the war was over. If there was not to be a thousand-year Reich, then certainly Europe's fate had been decided for a century. Germany would dominate Europe and inherit its empire.

Imagine now the summer of 1960. Germany had been crushed in the war, defeated less than five years later. Europe was occupied, split down the middle by the United States and the Soviet Union. The European empires were collapsing, and the United States and Soviet Union were competing over who would be their heir. The United States had the Soviet Union surrounded and, with an overwhelming arsenal of nuclear weapons, could annihilate it in hours. The United States had emerged as the global superpower. It dominated all of the world's oceans, and with its nuclear force could dictate terms to anyone in the world. Stalemate was the best the Soviets could hope forunless the Soviets invaded Germany and conquered Europe. That was the war everyone was preparing for. And in the back of everyone's mind, the Maoist Chinese, seen as fanatical, were the other danger.

Now imagine the summer of 1980. The United States had been defeated in a seven-year warnot by the Soviet Union, but by communist North Vietnam. The nation was seen, and saw itself, as being in retreat. Expelled from Vietnam, it was then expelled from Iran as well, where the oil fields, which it no longer controlled, seemed about to fall into the hands of the Soviet Union. To contain the Soviet Union, the United States had formed an alliance with Maoist Chinathe American president and the Chinese chairman holding an amiable meeting in Beijing. Only this alliance seemed able to contain the powerful Soviet Union, which appeared to be surging.

Imagine now the summer of 2000. The Soviet Union had completely collapsed. China was still communist in name but had become capitalist in practice. NATO had advanced into Eastern Europe and even into the former Soviet Union. The world was prosperous and peaceful. Everyone knew that geopolitical considerations had become secondary to economic considerations, and the only problems were regional ones in basket cases like Haiti or Kosovo.

Then came September 11, 2001, and the world turned on its head again.

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