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Larkin Charles J. - What If Ireland Defaults?

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What if Ireland Defaults Beautifully written and surprisingly easy to digest - photo 1

What if Ireland Defaults?

Beautifully written and surprisingly easy to digest, this book digs deep into the default debate. The insights into the consequences of default for Ireland are compulsory reading for the mandarins in Finance and the false gods of the NTMA. The detached views of such a distinguished cast of characters offer far more enlightenment than you would find at the Cabinet table.

Shane Ross, independent TD, author and business editor of the Sunday Independent

This is a significant and timely written symposium from a very broad spectrum of opinion holders on the crucial issues for Ireland in respect of the viability of the ECBIMF bailout and the consequences of its possible failure. Whether one hopes for failure or believes in success, and regardless of whether one agrees with some or none of the contributors, the articles are a must-read for citizens of an embattled society facing difficult but inescapable choices on the future of their Republic, and they will be quoted for years to come in the ongoing debate upon which we are launched.

Michael McDowell, barrister and former Minister for Justice

Sober, balanced, comprehensive, and heavy with facts, What if Ireland Defaults? is necessary reading for anyone who wants to understand how the world will deal with a future of fiscal crises and moral hazard.

Dan Mitchell, senior economist with the Cato Institute

Rather than hide behind the sofa every time the word default is mentioned, we need an intelligent discussion of what it means and doesnt mean for economies, societies and citizens. This book brings together a wide range of perspectives and fact-based analyses on a topic that will dominate policy debates for years. Read this, agree or disagree with the contributors, but lets start acknowledging that debt is an over-riding political issue.

Michael Taft, research officer with UNITE

What if Ireland Defaults?

edited by

Brian Lucey, Charles Larkin and Constantin Gurdgiev

Published by Orpen Press Lonsdale House Avoca Avenue Blackrock Co Dublin - photo 2

Published by

Orpen Press

Lonsdale House

Avoca Avenue

Blackrock

Co. Dublin

Ireland

e-mail: info@orpenpress.com

www.orpenpress.com

Brian Lucey, Charles Larkin and Constantin Gurdgiev, 2012

Paperback ISBN 978-1-871305-48-7

ePub ISBN 978-1-871305-52-4

Kindle ISBN 978-1-871305-53-1

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior, written permission of the publisher.

This book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publishers prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser.

Brian To my wife, Mary, my support in all

Charles To my parents and Jane for their help and support

Constantin To my wife, Jennifer Hord, for her infinite patience and support

We would like to acknowledge our contributors, editors and all those who made this book possible.

Please note that all dollar amounts are in US dollars unless stated otherwise.

BISBank for International Settlements
CADTMCommittee for the Abolition of Third World Debt
CBICentral Bank of Iceland
CISCommonwealth of Independent States
COMECONthe common trade area of the former Warsaw Pact
DCUDublin City University
ECBEuropean Central Bank
EFSFEuropean Financial Stability Facility
EFSMEuropean Financial Stability Mechanism
ESMEuropean Stability Mechanism
FSIrish National Training and Employment Authority
FDIforeign direct investment
GDPgross domestic product
GGDgeneral government debt
GKOsRussian state-issued short-term bills
GNIgross national income
GNPgross national product
HIPCHeavily Indebted Poor Countries
HIRCHighly Indebted Rich Countries
IBRCIrish Bank Resolution Corporation
IMFInternational Monetary Fund
ISKIcelandic krona
LTVloan to value
MACMunicipal Assistance Corporation (New York)
MNCmultinational corporation
NAMANational Asset Management Agency
NPRFNational Pension Reserve Fund
NTMANational Treasury Management Agency
NYCNew York City
OECDOrganisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
PSIprivate sector involvement
S&PStandard and Poors
SDRMSovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism
UCDUniversity College Dublin
UDCUrban Development Corporation (New York)
WPPSSWashington Public Power System Supply

is professor of Finance in Trinity College Dublin and a prolific author and - photo 3

is professor of Finance in Trinity College Dublin and a prolific author and commentator on financial and banking issues. He has worked at Trinity since 1992. Prior to that he was an economist at the Central Bank of Ireland (19871992), and before that an administrative officer in the Department of Health (19851992). He has a BA in Economics from Trinity College Dublin (1985), an MA in International Economics, Trade and Politics from University College Dublin (1988) and a PhD in Finance from Stirling University (2003).

is a research associate and adjunct lecturer in the School of Business Trinity - photo 4

is a research associate and adjunct lecturer in the School of Business, Trinity College Dublin, as well as at the National University of Ireland, Maynooth, and at the ESC Toulouse School of Business, France. Charles is also a special adviser on economic policy matters to Senator Sean Barrett. Charles main areas of research are political economy and public policy. He was awarded his PhD in Economics from Trinity College Dublin in 2008. He is a regular contributor to the Irish media and is co-author with Professor Colm Kearney of The IMF and Nicaragua: Development Where People Matter .

is the head of research for St Columbanus AG a Swiss-based asset management - photo 5

is the head of research for St. Columbanus AG, a Swiss-based asset management firm, and the adjunct professor of Finance in Trinity College Dublin. He currently serves as the chair of the Ireland Russia Business Association, and holds non-executive appointments on the investment committees of GoldCore Ltd (Ireland) and Heinz Global Asset Management LLC (US). Constantin also lectures in the Smurfit Graduate Business School, University College Dublin and serves as a visiting professor of Finance in the Russian State University. In the past, Constantin served as the head of macroeconomics with the Institute for Business Value, IBM, director of research with NCB Stockbrokers Ltd, and group editor and director of Business & Finance Publications. Born in Moscow, Constantin was educated in the University of California, Los Angeles, University of Chicago, Johns Hopkins University and Trinity College, Dublin. He writes a daily blog at trueeconomics.blogspot.com and a number of regular columns in the international and Irish press.

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