Hulsman - To dare more boldly: the audacious story of political risk

By 480 BC, the Pythia of Delphi already amounted to an ancient institution. Commonly known now as the Oracle of Delphi (when in fact the oracles were the pronouncements the Pythia dispensed), the Pythia were the senior priestesses at the Temple of Apollo, the Greek God of Prophecy.

The temple, sitting precariously (and beautifullythe site is still a wonder to behold) on the slope of Mount Parnassus above the Castalian Spring, had long been the center of the Greek world, going back into the mists of time. The site may well have had religious significance as early as 1400 BC, during the forgotten days of the Mycenaeans, with devotions to Apollo being established in the eighth century BC. Delphi remained a center of worship until 390 AD, having been in use for at least 1,100 years.

During this long period, the Pythia was seen as the most authoritative and important soothsayer in Greece. Pilgrims descended from all over the ancient world to visit the temple and have their questions about the future answered. Sitting in a small, enclosed chamber at the base of the edifice, the Pythia delivered her oracles in a frenzied state, most probably imbibing the vapors rising from the clefts of Mount Parnassus.

We know a good deal about how the oracles came to pass. For a time during the period of Roman domination, the Greek historian Plutarch served as high priest at Delphi, assisting the Pythia in her mission. Perched above the major cleft in the rock, the Pythia would be sitting in a perforated cauldron astride a tripod. It was reported by pilgrims that as the Pythia imbibed the vapors rising from the stone her hair would stand on end, her complexion altered, and she would often begin panting, with her voice assuming an otherworldly tone, not quite human. In classical days, it was asserted that the Pythia spoke in rhyme, in pentameter or hexameter.

To put it in modern terms, there is little doubt that the Pythia did see visions and underwent a dramatic transformation while in the temple; she was clearly as high as a kite. Plutarch himself believed that her oracular powers were directly associated with the vapors that emanated from the Kerna spring waters that flowed underneath the temple, vapors that may well have been full of hallucinogenic gas.

We now know that two tectonic plates intersect beneath Mount Parnassus; such a fault line creates many crevices in the earth, through which gases can rise. Recent tests have found ethylene in the spring water near the site of the Temple of Apollo. It is the most likely cause of the Delphic prophesies.

Ethylene is characterized by its sweet smell and produces a narcotic effect described as floating or disembodied euphoria. As described in detail by Plutarch, the experiences of the Pythia in action match the effects of ethylene. Under the influence, a persons tone of voice alters and speech patterns change, yet they retain the ability to answer questions logically. With exposure to higher doses of the drug, the person thrashes about wildly, groaning in strange voices, frequently falling to the ground, all behaviors tracking with eyewitness accounts of the Pythias behavior.

The Greeks believed that Apollo possessed the Pythias spirit when she was delivering her oraclesa point at which she was intoxicated by the vapors. They saw her prophecies as religious in nature, but lets look at them afresh. For I think the Temple at Delphi amounts to nothing less than the worlds first political risk consulting firm.

At least since the days when the Athenians consulted the Pythia during the height of the Persian Wars, political and business leaders have looked to outsiders blessed with seemingly magical knowledge to divine both the present and the future. While the tools of divination have changed through the ages, the pressing need for establishing rules of the road to manage risk in geopolitics have not. The question remains: through superior knowledge (either intellectual or spiritual in nature), can we reliably do this?

During the period of the Pythias ascendance, pilgrims brought animals to Delphi for sacrifice to Apollo, as well as a monetary fee for the privilege of using the Pythias services. Of the petitioners who waited for the one day of the month the Pythia deigned to reply to their questions, those who brought larger donations to the god secured an advanced place in line. Political risk has always been a business that directly links analysis to monetary rewards.