Ankit Panda - Kim Jong Un and the Bomb

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First published in the UK by Hurst Publishers, 2020

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Ankit Panda 2020

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PART ONE
SURVIVAL

PART TWO
TESTING, TESTING

PART THREE
NUCLEAR COEXISTENCE?

O gentlemen, the time of life is short;

To spend that shortness basely were too long

If life did ride upon a dials point,

Still ending at the arrival of an hour.

An if we live, we live to tread on kings;

If die, brave death, when princes die with us.

Now, for our consciences, the arms are fair

When the intent of bearing them is just.

Hotspur, in Henry IV, Part 1, Act V, Scene II

This book was written over the course of one year, representing the culmination of more than a half-decade of my work on North Korea, nuclear weapons, and international security. Over the course of 2017, I, alongside many other analysts working on North Koreas military capabilities, found that my prior years work on the country had suddenly garnered a great deal of public interest amid the twin developments of Donald Trumps election to the American presidency in November 2016 and Kim Jong Uns historic missile testing campaign that year.

By the time of the Singapore Summit between Trump and Kim in June 2018, I had authored scores of analytical articles and commentaries on the U.S.North Korea relationship and Pyongyangs fast-advancing military capabilities. At public events during this period, I frequently made the case against the folly of considering military action against North Koreadespite the distasteful and apparent reality of its increasingly sophisticated capabilities. During travel to Seoul and Tokyo at the time, I focused on listening to the perspectives of officials and expertsall with the aim of making sense of what North Koreas new-found capabilities and subsequent turn toward diplomacy would mean for the region and for the world.

Around the time I started writing the manuscript that became this book, Kim Jong Un had embarked on a charm offensive to transform his international image from that of an irascible rocket man (as Trump had memorably dubbed him, with no due credit to Elton John) to that of an international statesman who could rub shoulders comfortably with the likes of Chinas Xi Jinping, South Koreas President Moon Jae-in, and, of course, Trump. The diplomacy in 2018 was unparalleled in its form and briefly raised hopes that North Korea might disarm and reorient decades of its national defense, foreign, and security policies to herald a new age in Northeast Asia.

By the time this manuscript was finished in the second half of 2019, those hopes had largely been dashed. The underlying thesis of this bookthat a nuclear-armed North Korea is a de facto reality that the international community will have to live withwas one that underpinned much of my ongoing commentary and analysis at the time. In this book, I look back on the evidence supporting it while interrogating possible alternatives and the policy approaches that might best support a turn toward a more peaceful, stable Northeast Asia within the ever-tightening constraints that emerge from North Koreas maturation as a possessor of nuclear weapons.

This book would ultimately not have been possible without the support of countless individuals: friends, mentors, teachers, colleagues, sources, and family.

Over the course of my study of North Korea, I have benefited tremendously from the insights and work of countless analysts and scholars that preceded me. Many of them I have spoken to personally for hours and hours, and others I have corresponded with remotely or read and referenced. While by no means an exhaustive list, Id like to especially thank James Acton, Nobu Akiyama, Jieun Baek, Andrea Berger, Joe Bermudez, Laura Bicker, Bob Carlin, Victor Cha, Chun In Bum, Shea Cotton, Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, John Delury, Abraham Denmark, Catherine Dill, Michael Duitsman, Michael Elleman, Mark Fitzpatrick, Aidan Foster-Carter, Go Myong-hyun, Sheena Greitens, Melissa Hanham, Nathan Hunt, Kentaro Ide, Van Jackson, Robert Kelly, Duyeon Kim, Bruce Klingner, Scott LaFoy, Marco Langbroek, Lee Byeonggu, Minyoung Lee, Seongmin Lee, Jeffrey Lewis, Grace Liu, Jonathan McDowell, Curtis Melvin, Adam Mount, Vipin Narang, Junya Nishino, Stephen Noerper, Ramon Pacheco-Pardo, Jung Pak, Kee Park, Sokeel Park, Anne Pellegrino, Marty Pfeiffer, Dan Pinkston, Tom Plant, Joshua Pollack, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Cheryl Rofer, David Santoro, Markus Schiller, Dave Schmerler, Sugio Takahashi, John K. Warden, and Xu Tianran. Im especially grateful to Kelsae Adame for her exceptional research assistance. Chris Biggers and Rob Simmon at Planet made looking at North Korea from afar a much easier task for me.

A few others not in the preceding list above requested they not be named specifically given security concerns. I am nevertheless grateful for their contributions. Moreover, this book could not have been what it is without the willingness of those with special insight in intelligence analysis and military operations who were willing to speak with me, sharing their unparalleled insight. Because they were not authorized to share what they did with me and did so at personal and professional risk, their contributions to my understanding of the matters discussed in this book are uncredited except where anonymously footnoted. Nevertheless, I am endlessly indebted to these sources and their willingness to share what they could to expand our public understanding of North Korea.

Without the support Ive received as a writer and thinker at The Diplomat, I could not have arrived at a point personally and professionally where I would be capable of writing this book. My colleagues there over the years, including Shannon Tiezzi, Katie Putz, Prashanth Parameswaran, Franz Stefan-Gady, and Zachary Keck, have been a constant source of inspiration. James Pach,