Daniel Yergin - The new map : Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations

This book is about the new global map that is being shaped by dramatic s hifts in geopolitics and energy. It is also about where this map is t aking us . Geopolitics f ocuses on the shifting balance and rising tensions among nations. Energy reflects far-reaching alterations in global supply and flows, driven in major part by the remarkable change in the energy position of the United States, and by the growing global role of renewables and the new politics of climate.

Different kinds of power are in play. One is the power of nations that is shaped by economics, military capabilities, and geography; by grand strategy and calculated ambition; by suspicion and fear; and by the contingent and the unexpected. The other is the power that comes from oil and gas and coal, from wind and solar, and from splitting atoms, and the power that comes from policies that seek to reorder the worlds energy system and move toward net zero carbon in the name of climate.

This is no simple map to follow, for it is dynamic, constantly changing. It has been made even more complicated by the coronavirus that swept out of China and across the planet in 2020, bringing grief and vast human suffering and disarray. It also shut down the world economy, disrupted commerce both local and global, destroyed jobs and businesses and impoverished many, plunged the world economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression, added enormously to public debt, accentuated the tensions among countries, and created vast turmoil in global energy markets.

This book seeks to illuminate and explain this new map. How the shale revolution has changed Americas position in the world. How and why new cold wars are developing between the United States on one hand, and Russia and China on the other, and energys role in them. How swiftlyand potentially perilouslythe overall relationship between the United States and China is changing from engagement to strategic rivalry and what begins to look like an emerging cold war. How unsteady are the foundations of a Middle East that still supplies a third of the worlds total petroleum and a significant amount of natural gas. How the familiar ecosystem of oil and autos, which has held for more than a century, is now being challenged by a new mobility revolution. How climate concerns are reshaping the map of energy, and how the much-discussed energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables may actually play out. And how has the coronavirus changed the energy markets and the future roles of the Big Threethe United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russiawhich now dominate world oil.

Americas New Map tells the story of the unanticipated shale revolution that is transforming Americas place in the world, upending world energy markets, and resetting global geopolitics. Together, shale oil and shale gas have proven to be the biggest energy innovations so far in the twenty-first century. Wind and solar are both innovations of the 1970s and 1980s, though they came into their own only over the last decade. The United States has surged ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the worlds number one producer of both oil and gas, and is now one of the worlds major exporters of both.

Though targeted for bans by some politicians, the shale revolution has fueled Americas economic growth, enhancing its trade position, generating investment and job creation, and lowering utility bills for millions of consumers. The supply chains supporting shale reach all across the United States, into virtually every state, creating jobs even in New York state, which prohibits shale development within its borders, owing to environmental opposition.

Starting with the energy crises of the 1970s, Americans became accustomed to thinking the country was vulnerable because of U.S. dependence on imported sources. But the geopolitical consequences for the United States, now that it is almost self-sufficient, are apparent in new dimensions of influence, increased energy security, and greater flexibility in foreign policy. Yet there are limits to this newfound self-assurance, for energy remains a globally-interconnected industry and these consequences are still only part of the overall nexus of relations among nations. Moreover, shale was already in search of its next revolution when coronavirus sent it spinning into a new crisis.

Russias Map is about the tinder created by the interaction of energy flows, geopolitical competition, and the continuing contention over the unsettled borders that resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades agoand from Vladimir Putins drive to restore Russia as a Great Power. Russia may be an energy superpower, but it is also economically dependent on oil and gas exports. Today, as in Soviet times, those exports are stoking fierce debate about the possible political leverage over Europe that may come in their wake. Yet, any potential leverage has been dissipated by changes in both the European and global gas markets.

The consequences of the abrupt transformation of the Soviet Union into fifteen independent countries remain uncertain, nowhere more so than between Russia and Ukraine, where conflict over natural gas has been central. Following the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, the struggle moved to the battlefield in southeastern Ukraine. In the strange way that history works, that warand, specifically, the matter of U.S. weapons to resist Russian tankstriggered the impeachment of Donald Trump by the House of Representatives, followed by his acquittal by the Senate.