Jason Warner - The Islamic State in Africa: The Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the Next Jihadist Battlefront

THE ISLAMIC STATE IN AFRICA

JASON WARNER
with
RYAN OFARRELL
HNI NSAIBIA
RYAN CUMMINGS

The Islamic State in Africa

The Emergence, Evolution, and Future
of the Next Jihadist Battlefront

HURST & COMPANY, LONDON

First published in the United Kingdom in 2021 by

C. Hurst & Co. (Publishers) Ltd.,

New Wing, Somerset House, Strand, London, WC2R 1LA

Jason Warner with Ryan OFarrell, Hni Nsaibia and Ryan Cummings, 2021

All rights reserved.

Printed in Scotland

The right of Jason Warner with Ryan OFarrell, Hni Nsaibia and Ryan Cummings to be identified as the authors of this publication is asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988.

A Cataloguing-in-Publication data record for this book is available from the British Library.

ISBN: 9781787383906

This book is printed using paper from registered sustainable and managed sources.

www.hurstpublishers.com

CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This book has been nothing short of a global effort, aided by an incisive, generous, and supportive community of colleagues, friends, and family. Around the world, we were exceptionally lucky to have top-notch experts discuss, review, and critique our manuscript at various stages. Among the scholars and analysts who devoted time to these tasks and to whom we are grateful are Alexis Arieff, Mokhtar Awad, Tricia Bacon, Lionel Beehner, Oded Berkowitz, Anouar Boukhars, Matt Bryden, Colin Clarke, Emily Estelle, Robert Feldman, Vincent Foucher, Aliyu Gebi, Eric Morier-Genoud, Brenda Mucegi Githingu, Yvan Guichaoua, Simone Haysome, Patrick Hubbard, Paolo Israel, Catherine Kelly, Abdulbasit Kassim, Djallil Lounnas, Omar Mahmood, Alison McManus, Laren Poole, Geoff Porter, Joshua Richardson, Sam Ratner, Samuel Tadros, Alex Thurston, Martine Zethuen, Jacob Zenn, and Katherine Zimmerman. In addition, Chris Anzalone, Caleb Weiss, and Aaron Zelin have been exceptionally generous and eager to offer assistance. Kristina Hummel has been an absolutely invaluable resource for this project, and has spent countless hours assisting in the referencing and copyediting of this work.

The authors have benefited, tremendously in many cases, from an eager, willing, and outstanding cadre of research assistants. In particular, Iakovos Balassi, Charlotte Hulme, Hannah Lappin, Andrew Mines, Julia Lodoen, Emma Fruchtman, Stephanie Lizzo, Meghan Gephart, Julia Broomer, Ryan Salzman, and Sydney Mason all deserve special recognition. These early-stage scholars represent the outstanding potential of the next wave of specialists in security studies in Africa and more broadly. We also extend hearty thanks to Robyn Kriel, Ruth Maclean, and Harun Maruf, all of whom helped us in securing interviews at various points of this project.

For his part, Warner wishes to thank his exceptional colleagues at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. In particular, thanks go to Amira Jadoon, Audrey Alexander, Nakissa Jahanbani, Daniel Milton, Brian Dodwell, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, Seth Loertscher, Paul Cruickshank, Sean Morrow, and Richard and Rachel Yon. Profound thanks go to Muhammad al-Ubaydi, who was a daily source of insight, assistance, and companionship. He is, of course, also deeply grateful to his wife Meghan and daughter Chella for their love, support, and tolerance. Likewise for his parents, Randy and Nancy.

For his part, OFarrell would like to thank his co-authors for the extraordinary opportunity to work on this project. He would also like to acknowledge his professors at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies for their guidance, including Daniel Serwer, Mvemba Dizolele, and I. William Zartman. Special thanks go to the Combating Terrorism Center for welcoming him and profoundly shaping his interests, passions and career. He is also grateful to the innumerable friends and colleagues met in person and virtually, both known and anonymous, who have enabled him to engage in these topics. Most importantly, he would like to thank his mother, father and two brothers for their unconditional support and unwavering understanding, without whom none of this would be possible.

First and foremost, Nsaibia wants to thank his wife Heidi for her love and long companionship, and his children Rafael, Marouene, and Frielle for their enormous patience. Congratulations to the co-author team for the effort in bringing this project to fruition. He expresses gratitude to his father for being a source of motivation. Special thanks to Alkhalifa Sidi Mohamed, Hamma Diallo, Abdoul Aziz Azeibou, Walid Ag Mnani, and Kamil Khamed. He would like to extend appreciation to his supervisor, Clionadh Raleigh, executive director at ACLED, for her kindness and support. Thanks also go to Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, Flicien Roquet, James Gordon Meek, Andrew Lebovich, and many others with whom he had the opportunity, honor, and pleasure to meet, discuss, or work.

For his part, Cummings first and foremost thanks his co-authorsparticularly Jason Warnerfor being the driving force and lifeblood of this project. To have had the opportunity to work alongside such a selfless, motivated and extraordinary team of authors has been nothing short of a life-changing experience. During this process, a brotherhood has been built which will, akin to the forecast and analysis, will withstand the test of time. There are no words to express my gratitude to Jason, Ryan, and Hni for their tireless labor in this project and for picking up the slack during periods of this journey when the trials and tribulations of life got the better of me. He would also like to thank his wife Annie for her patience and encouragement through this journey, and for sacrificing many evenings, weekends and public holidays so that he could fulfill a life-long dream of becoming a published author. He also thanks his best friend and business partner, Nick Piper, for his encouragement and willingness to allow him to spare time from work duties to be a part of this once-in-a-lifetime project.

Last and certainly not least, he would like to extend his gratitude to Michael Dwyer who on a cold and chilly Cape Town evening, albeit over a hot meal and a decent amount of wine, pitched the idea of writing a book. On that evening, Dwyer filled him with a sense of awe and belief in his own abilities at a time when it was lacking.

Editorially, we could not have accomplished this project without the fine eye and attention to detail provided by the editors at Hurst, especially Michael Dwyer. Though we have put considerable effort into ensuring the accuracy of all claims made in this book, any faults are our own.

GLOSSARY