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Paul Kleppner - The Third Electoral System, 1853-1892: Parties, Voters, and Political Cultures

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Paul Kleppner The Third Electoral System, 1853-1892: Parties, Voters, and Political Cultures
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Paul Kleppner - The Third Electoral System, 1853-1892: Parties, Voters, and Political Cultures
The Third Electoral System, 1853-1892: Parties, Voters, and Political Cultures
Paul Kleppner
The Third Electoral System, 1853-1892: Parties, Voters, and Political Cultures

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The Third Electoral System, 18531892
1979 The University of North Carolina Press
All rights reserved
Manufactured in the United States of America
ISBN0-8078-6554-0
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 78-7949
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Kleppner, Paul.
The third electoral system, 18531892.
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
1. ElectionsUnited StatesHistory. 2. Voting
United StatesHistory. 3. United StatesPolitics and
government19th century. I. Title.
JK1965.K53 324'.2 78-7949
ISBN 0-8078-6554-0
Both the initial research and the publication of this work were made possible in part through grants from the National Endowment of the Humanities, a federal agency whose mission is to award grants to support education, scholarship, media programming, libraries, and museums, in order to bring the results of cultural activities to a broad, general public.
For my mother
Contents
Maps
1 Partisan Leads, 18761892, by States []
2 Extreme Swings in Missouri: Shifts in Democratic Mean Percentages, 18481856 and 18681892 []
3 Alliance Gubernatorial Support: Minnesota, 1890 []
4 Wet or Dry? Iowa's Prohibition Referendum, 1882 []
Tables
2.1 Longitudinal Measures of Partisan Strength, 18361852 and 18561892 []
2.2 Distribution of the Democratic Presidential Vote []
2.3 Longitudinal Discontinuity: Peak T Values []
2.4 Realignment or Reinstatement? Democratic Distributions []
2.5 Longitudinal Measures of Democratic Strength []
2.6 Standard Deviations of the Democratic Vote by Period and Percentage of Population by State []
2.7 Partisan Competitiveness during the Third Electoral Era []
2.8 Indicators of Secular Change []
2.9 Longitudinal Measures of Voter Mobilization []
2.10 Cross-sectional Measures of Voter Mobilization []
3.1 Major Party Autocorrelations: The U.S. by States []
3.2 Patterns of Fluctuation: Partisan Autocorrelations, States by Counties []
3.3 Partisan Strength by Types of Counties, 18481892 []
3.4 Partisan Support by Regions, 18601872 []
3.5 Partisan Support by Types of Counties, 18601872 []
3.6 Voting on Black Suffrage Referenda []
4.1 Partisan Change in the Confederate States []
4.2 Political Transformation: Maryland and Missouri []
4.3 Percent Democratic by Types of Counties: Missouri []
4.4 Democratic Reinstatement: Urban-Industrial and Outstate Areas, 18681876 []
4.5 Coal Mining Communities: Democratic Percentage Strength []
4.6 Role of 1874 Farmer Parties: Coefficients of Determination (r2) with Democratic Distributions []
4.7 Partisan Strength by Types of Counties, 18681876 []
5.1 Partisan Affiliation by Ethnoreligious Groups: DeKalb County, Illinois, 1876 []
5.2 Catholic Voting Behavior []
5.3 German Lutheran Units: Percent Democratic of Total Vote []
5.4 Group Voting Behavior: Frederick and Washington Counties, Maryland []
5.5 Group Voting Behavior: Baltimore City, Maryland []
5.6 Scandinavian Lutheran Voting Behavior: Percent Democratic of Total Vote []
5.7 Republican Percentage of Two-Party Identifications []
5.8 Northern vs. Southern Religious-Group Voting []
5.9 Black vs. White Voting Behavior: Maryland, 18761888 []
5.10 The Nonsouthern Electoral Universe: Estimates of Partisan Strength by Ethnoreligious Groups []
6.1 Characteristics of Immigration, 18461892 []
6.2 Nativity Structure of the White Electorate, 1870 and 1890 []
6.3 Estimated Distribution of Religious Groups, 1860 and 1890 []
6.4 Urban Population Characteristics []
6.5 Growth of Public and Parochial Schools, 18701890 []
7.1 Prohibition Party Strength: Percentage of Total Vote by Regions []
7.2 Prohibition Party Distributions: Interoffice and Interyear Coefficients of Determination (r2) []
7.3 Partisan Sources of Prohibition Support []
7.4 Social Sources of Prohibition Support []
7.5 Farmer-Labor Voting Strength: Percentage of Total Vote by Regions []
7.6 Farmer-Labor Party Distributions: Interoffice and Interyear Coefficients of Determination (r2) []
7.7 Farmer-Labor Percentage of Total Vote []
7.8 Farmer-Labor Social Discontinuity: Minnesota, 18901892 []
7.9 Social Sources of Farmer-Labor Support []
8.1 Partisan Strength by Types of Regions []
8.2 Partisan Strength by Types of Counties []
8.3 Prohibition and Partisan Shifts: Iowa, 1881 and 1882 []
8.4 Estimates of Democratic Support by Social Groups: Iowa, 18761892 []
8.5 Prohibition, Social Groups, and Democratic Partisanship: Iowa, 18821892 []
8.6 Prohibition Referenda and Partisanship: Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island []
8.7 Social Groups and Democratic Partisanship: New Jersey, 18841892 []
9.1 Economic or Ethnoreligious Variables? A Comparative Assessment of Effects on Democratic Voting, 1888 []
9.2 Longitudinal Measures of Party Voting: U.S. House of Representatives []
Preface
This book constitutes the second installment of my continuing effort to analyze the social bases of American mass political behavior. The first was a monograph that analyzed the political realignment of 189396 in the Midwestespecially in the states of Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.1 Future works will explore the social bases of partisanship and participation during the fourth party system, the social and political preconditions of minor-party voting, and the impact of realigning sequences on both recruitment of elites and subsequent transformations in policy.
The present book presents a description and analysis of mass voting behavior over the course of this nation's third electoral era (185392). In part, the research was designed to fill a gap in knowledge to which I had drawn attention earlier.2
Historians have devoted considerable attention to the story of late nineteenth-century politics. Yet their studies typically have not included careful and detailed explorations of the patterns of mass voting behavior. And even less intellectual energy has been expended to analyze the social and attitudinal bases of that behavior. These omissions are especially curious for at least two reasons. First, officeholding, and therefore the capacity of elites to shape policy directly, depended ultimately on electoral success. Second, the era was marked by high levels of participation by citizens in electoral politics. Although late nineteenth-century party battles may appear vacuous and vapid to most historians, to most involved contemporaries election results mattered. And high voter turnout provides stark evidence of that broadly diffused sense of concern and involvement.
Yet despite its inherent substantive and theoretical potential, until the past decade or so political historians have not paid much attention to analyses of voting behavior. Widespread commitment to a letristic method accounts for that neglect, for that method, no less than any other, predetermines the types of evidence that will be examined and, therefore, the range of descriptive and analytical questions that can be posed.3 Those who apotheosize such a method and abjure the use of relevant quantitative evidence are compelled either to treat incidentally or to ignore entirely some areas of research. Unhappily, exclusive reliance on a letristic method, in my judgment, has produced a political history preoccupied with themes that at best are systemically tangential. At the same time it has deflected investigative attention away from the important questions that bear on the essence both of the operation of the political process and of the nature of past society.
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