First published 1990 by Westview Press
Published 2018 by Routledge
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Copyright 1990 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Spector, Leonard S.
Nuclear ambitions : the spread of nuclear weapons 1989-1990 /
Leonard S. Spector, with Jacqueline R. Smith.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 0-8133-8075-8 ISBN 0-8133-8074-X
1. Nuclear weapons. 2. World politics 1985-1995. 3. Nuclear
nonproliferation. I. Smith, Jacqueline R. II. Title.
U264.S629
355.825119-dc20
90-12835
CIP
ISBN 13: 978-0-367-01576-3 (hbk)
This is the fifth in the Endowments series on the spread of nuclear weapons. Through these reports, the Endowment seeks to increase public awareness of the fact and the danger of nuclear proliferation and to stimulate greater attention to this vital issue by policymakers, the media, and the scholarly community.
The series was initiated with the publication of Nuclear Proliferation Today (covering developments in 1984) and continued with the issuance of The New Nuclear Nations (covering 1985), Going Nuclear (covering 1986), and The Undeclared. Bomb (covering 1987 and 1988). Nuclear Ambitions updates these prior volumes with an examination of proliferation trends as of the summer of 1990.
Much has changed in the field of nuclear proliferation since the Endowment began its surveys. In South Asia, Pakistan has emerged as a de facto nuclear power, ending the regional nuclear monopoly India had enjoyed since its 1974 test. Today, as U.S.-Soviet relations enter a new era of cooperation, India and Pakistan are near the brink of war. Indeed it is not far-fetched to suggest that in 1990 the Subcontinent replaced Europe as the most likely arena of conflict between nuclear-armed foes.
In the Middle East, Mordechai Vanunus revelations in 1986 confirmed long-standing speculation that Israel possessed a sizeable nuclear arsenal. Though it remains the regions only nuclear power, the growth of its adversaries chemical weapon and ballistic missile capabilities has made Israels cities increasingly vulnerable and has dramatically reshaped the strategic balance in the area. As Iraqs bellicosity has increased in recent months, the threat of a war that could escalate to the nuclear level is becoming a palpable danger in this region, as well.
Since 1984, North Koreas pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability has also become a source of growing concern. If the Norths nuclear advances continue, Seouls now-dormant interest in nuclear arms will inevitably be rekindled. Pressures would also mount in Japan for increased defense expenditures, and conceivably for a reexamination of the countrys non-nuclear stance. Such developments could have consequences of global significance.
As unsettling as these trends may be, other developments suggest that the threat of nuclear proliferation can be reduced under the right circumstances. If South Africa soon joins the Non-Proliferation Treaty, as is widely anticipated, its decision will be the result of a combination of domestic political change, regional accommodation, and non-proliferation diplomacy and regime-building by interested outside parties. Similarly, in Latin America, a confluence of positive developments in the political and security arenas led Argentina and Brazil to initiate a series of reciprocal visits to nuclear installations in 1987, a confidence-building measure which has greatly eased the two countries long-standing nuclear rivalry. In a related area, American efforts through the Missile Technology Control Regime led Egypt and Argentina to withdraw from the Condor II missile program, which they were pursuing with Iraq, a result that again illustrates that in some instances, the trend toward further proliferation can be arrested.
These accomplishments may prove impossible to replicate in some other settings. Nonetheless, they demonstrate the importance of active non-proliferation diplomacy and the value of international norms, during a period when extraordinary changes on the international scene may offer new opportunities for slowing the spread of nuclear arms and related capabilities.
Leonard S. Spector, the Director of the Endowments Nuclear Non-Proliferation Project, has been the author of the previous volumes in this series. He prepared Nuclear Ambitions with the assistance of Jacqueline R. Smith, the projects Assistant Director. A Senior Associate at the Endowment, Mr. Spector has worked in the field of nuclear non-proliferation for more than ten years, first at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and then as Chief Counsel of the Senate Energy and Nuclear Proliferation Subcommittee. His writings on non-proliferation issues have appeared widely. Before joining the Endowment, Ms. Smith was a project manager at Science Applications International Corporation, where she supported the U.S. Commander-in-Chief, Pacific, on a number of projects related to nuclear issues in the region. She has also served as a congressional staff aide in both the House and Senate.
As always, Endowment sponsorship of this report implies a belief only in the importance of the subject and the credentials of the authors. The views expressed are theirs. Comments or inquiries are welcome and may be addressed to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2400 N. St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 200371153.
Thomas L. Hughes
President
Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace
Like its predecessors in the Endowments series on nuclear proliferation, Nuclear Ambitions surveys the status of nuclear developments in each of the emerging nuclear states, in a country-by-country format.
Every volume after the first Nuclear Proliferation Today (New York: Vintage Books, 1984)has also included an in-depth look at a particular facet of the nuclear proliferation problem. In the second volume of the series, The New Nuclear Nations (New York: Vintage Books, 1985), the thematic chapter described the many facets of clandestine nuclear trade under the title, The Nuclear Netherworld. The lead chapter in the third volume in the series, Going Nuclear (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1986), examined the risks of nuclear weapons or related nuclear assets being suddenly transferred from one regime to another as the result of war, revolution, or coup dtat. It used the rubric nuclear inheritance to describe this phenomenon, and reviewed relevant historical episodes in French Algeria, China, Vietnam, and Iran. The thematic chapter of the fourth volume, The Undeclared Bomb (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1988), was devoted to the growing nuclear delivery capabilities of the emerging nuclear states. In the current survey, several of these themes are revisited in a new section entitled, Global Trends, which also examines a number of additional topics, including the impact on nuclear proliferation of the dramatic changes in U.S.-Soviet relations.
