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World Power Trends and U.S. Foreign Policy for the 1980s
Author:
Ray S Cline
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Routledge
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Books / Politics
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2019
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Endpaper Map

Politectonic Zones

Ray S. Cline

World Power Trends and U.S. Foreign Policy for the 1980s

Westview Press Boulder, Colorado

World Power Trends and U.S. Foreign Policy for the 1980s

First published 1980 by Westview Press

Published 2019 by Routledge

52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017

2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:

Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Cline, Ray S.

World power trends and U.S. foreign policy for the 1980s.

Edition of 1977 published under title: World power assessment 1977.

1. International relations. 2. Alliances. 3. World politics-1945-4. United States
Foreign relations. I. Title.

JX1395.C576 1980 327.09047 79-26790

ISBN 13: 978-0-367-21383-1 (hbk)

President Franklin D. Roosevelts instruction to his speech writer for a fireside chat delivered over the radio six weeks after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, December 7, 1941:

Im going to ask the American people to take out their maps. Im going to speak about strange places that many of them never heard of-places that are now the battleground for civilization. Im going to ask the newspapers to print maps of the whole world. I want to explain to the people something about geography-what our problem is and what the over-all strategy of this war has to be. I want to tell it to them in simple terms of ABC so that they will understand what is going on and how each battle fits into the picture. I want to explain this war in laymens language; if they understand the problem and what we are driving at, I am sure that they can take any kind of bad news right on the chin.

Rosenman, Samuel I. Working with Roosevelt.

New York: Harper & Brothers, 1952, p. 330.

Contents

, David M. Abshire

Chapter Six. Military Capability:
The Conventional Force Balance

Guide

Maps

World Map. Politectonic Zones

Graphics

Most scholars and statesmen agree that the early 1980s promise to usher in an era of strategic instability and peril for the Free World. The United States clearly must act firmly within the context of a coherent defense and foreign policy if it is to maintain an international environment safe for Americans and American allies.

In this troubled era, clearheaded evaluation of strategic trends in all parts of the world is crucial. Realistically assessing the strength of nations and successive tilts in the balance of world power has been the main thrust of the work that Dr. Ray S. Cline has been doing for the Georgetown University Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) during the past five years. His experience as Director of Intelligence and Research in the Department of State (19691973) and, before that, Deputy Director of Intelligence for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) enables him to put together a uniquely comprehensive and authoritative survey of the main elements of national power. He not only analyzes technical military and economic data but makes qualitative judgments about the geopolitical and foreign policy factors that are fundamental in strategic decisions.

This year the Georgetown Center is proud to present the third, updated assessment by Dr. Cline. His previously published work has become standard teaching material in graduate schools and defense research institutions. One enthusiastic reviewer went so far as to say that the formula for measuring perceived power in the international arena, Pp = ( C + E + M ) ( S + W ), is the geopolitical equivalent of Einsteins famous nuclear energy formula, E = mc 2! The new assessment with strategic recommendations for the 1980s refines the treatment of data in Dr. Clines formula and draws far-reaching policy conclusions from his analysis of the international balance of power.

This third assessment of world power by Dr. Cline is especially provocative and timely because it delineates and explains worldwide perceptions of a decline in the strength and influence of the United States as compared with the Soviet Union. In many ways this book is the centerpiece of the CSIS study of the many turbulent situations confronting us in the 1980s, and I commend it to all serious observers of international affairs.

David M. Abshire
Chairman, CSIS

My fervent hope in writing this third comprehensive assessment of the world power balance is that it will stimulate sober and realistic thinking about American defense and foreign policy. It is especially important for university teachers and students to examine systematically the geopolitical structure of international conflicts, something too often neglected in intellectual circles in the United States. Perhaps my formula for combining all the elements of national power in the simple ways they are perceived by strategic decision makers will help readers understand the special challenges confronting Americans in the 1980s.

I deeply appreciate the enormous contribution made to the completion of this book by my highly professional chief research editor, who is my wife, Marjorie W. Cline. If strict justice were done, she would appear as coauthor.

The next greatest debt of gratitude is due to Lieutenant Colonel Harry Wilson, a research associate on loan from the U.S. Air Force, who compiled many of the statistics and wisely suggested reorganizing some parts of the text as compared with previous versions. Some of the latest data was searched out and a great deal of last-minute calculation was done by my student research assistant, John Panulas.

Ronald Blais performed in an outstanding fashion in preparing the final text of the manuscript including the wretchedly complex tables. Finally, I am grateful to my ever dutiful principal secretary, Ann Campagna, my East Asia research associate, Robert Downen, and my special maritime affairs research assistant, Dr. Dora Alves, for the many tasks they helpfully undertook to assist in the course of completing the research and writing of this volume.

I cannot conclude these acknowledgments without thanking all of my colleagues at the Georgetown University Center for Strategic and International Studies for discussing with me over the years the hard problems of strategic analysis that had to be tackled in this impossibly ambitious effort to wrap up everything in a single global assessment of world power.

Washington, D.C.

Ray S. Cline

This book is my third attempt to assess the power of nations in the international context as a basis for planning American defense and foreign policy. It suggests a realistic way of thinking about the balance of power in the 1980s. In writing World Power Assessment in 1975 and in preparing a substantial revision in 1977, I tried to provide a conceptual framework for the comprehensive assessment of national power that would integrate the major geographic, economic, military, and political factors in accordance with the leverage they are commonly perceived to exert in international affairs. This interdisciplinary approach is unique in systematically examining the major power elements it identifies, while measuring them on an overall scale showing specific strengths and weaknesses of nations.

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