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Michael J. Hiscox - International Trade and Political Conflict: Commerce, Coalitions, and Mobility

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Book:
International Trade and Political Conflict: Commerce, Coalitions, and Mobility
Author:
Michael J Hiscox
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
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Books / Politics
Year:
2001
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International Trade and Political Conflict

International Trade and
Political Conflict

COMMERCE, COALITIONS, AND MOBILITY

MICHAEL J. HISCOX

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS

PRINCETON AND OXFORD

Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street,

Princeton, New Jersey 08540

In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 3 Market Place, Woodstock,

Oxfordshire OX20 1SY

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Hiscox, Michael J., 1966

International trade and political conflict : commerce, coalitions, and mobility / Michael J. Hiscox.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 0-691-08854-3 (alk. paper) ISBN 0-691-08855-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)
eISBN 978-0-691-21486-3
1. International tradePolitical aspectsHistory. 2. Commercial policy
History. 3. Coalition (Social sciences). 4. Migration, Internal. 5. International
economic relations. 6. United StatesCommercial policyHistory. I. Title.

HF1379 H57 2001

382'.3dc21 2001021463

British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available

www.pup.princeton.edu

FOR JOHN AND PEG HISCOX

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Tables

Figures

PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This is a study of the politics of international trade. As someone who grew up in a wheat and wool-growing district in rural Australia, where fortunes fluctuated in line with world prices for agricultural commodities and trade policies at home and abroad, this topic has long held a special appeal for me. Historically, trade has always served as a lightning rod for political conflict. In the nineteenth century, in many places, it was often the central political issue over which political parties squared off in election campaigns and legislative battles and which caused protestors to take to the streets. Indeed, the first organized political parties in all the former Australian colonies in the 1880s and 1890s were Free Trade and Protectionist parties. In our own times, as political conflict over globalization has begun to spill over into demonstrations in the streets of Seattle, Davos, Melbourne, and Montreal, and as governments in the advanced economies debate about whether or how they ought to proceed with future trade negotiations, it seems just as important as ever to examine the political schisms generated by the trade issue.

I have attempted here to provide a general study of the types of political cleavages and conflicts created by international trade. The political battles that have been fought over the trade issue have actually been quite different in different historical settings. In particular, the extent to which conflict over trade policy has led to major clashes between broad-based class coalitions has varied significantly across time and place. I suggest that a good deal of this variation can be explained by the degree to which individual economic agents are mobile between different industries or productive activities in the economy. When it comes to determining the effects of international trade on incomes, such mobility tends to make class distinctions among agents more salient than ties to particular industries; this shapes the political contest over trade with profound effects not only for the evolution of trade policy itself but for the distribution of incomes, for economic growth rates, and for the development of political parties and other institutions.

I have incurred many debts while working on this project. Generous financial support was provided by the Robert G. Menzies Fund of Australia, which granted the scholarship in 1990 that allowed me to give up a very good job in Sydney to pursue a graduate degree in the United States. The Harvard Sheldon Fund also provided funding during the 19901991 and 19911992 academic years, and the Mellon Foundation supported me with generous grants in 19931994 and 19941995. The Research Training Group in Positive Political Economy at Harvard and MIT supported me during my last semester at Harvard in 1996.

I owe a large debt of gratitude to many friends and advisers who helped me during the course of this research. Jim Alt, first and foremost, has been a constant source of support and wise counsel over the years. I feel extremely fortunate to be able to count myself as one of his students. Lawrence Broz, Jeff Frieden, and Alberto Alesina also provided valuable advice during the development of the project at Harvard, and I owe a special debt to Bob Keohane, who encouraged my early graduate work and provided much sound guidance and instruction. At Harvard I also benefited from helpful comments at various stages from Carles Boix, Brian Burgoon, Marc Busch, Jon Crystal, Gary King, Henry Laurence, Lisa Martin, Andrew Moravcsik, Ken Shepsle, and Kip Wennerlund.

At the University of California, San Diego, I have been very fortunate to be surrounded by terrific colleagues. In particular, Neal Beck, Ellen Comisso, Gary Cox, Liz Gerber, Peter Gourevitch, Steph Haggard, Harry Hirsch, Gary Jacobsen, Miles Kahler, Sam Kernell, David Lake, Skip Lupia, Mat McCubbins, Andrew MacIntyre, Sam Popkin, Phil Roeder, Kaare Strom, and Tracy Strong have been tremendously generous in providing me with friendship, advice, and comments on different aspects of this project. Peter and David have been especially supportive, and their own work has been a continuing inspiration. At Princeton University Press I am deeply indebted to Chuck Myers for his encouragement and enthusiasm. For helpful comments on parts or all of this research in its later stages I am also very grateful to Mike Gilligan, Peter Katzenstein, Helen Milner, Eric Reinhardt, Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, and Daniel Verdier. I am especially indebted to Mike and Daniel since I drew very heavily from their own wonderful books on trade politics, Empowering Exporters and Democracy and International Trade, when recounting the histories of trade politics in France, Britain, and the United States and examining legislative voting on trade bills.

I owe very special thanks to Ron Rogowski. His year on leave at Harvard in 19951996, coinciding with the arrival of Jeff Frieden, was a great stroke of luck for me as I struggled with the early stages of this research. His masterful book, Commerce and Coalitions, was the principal source of inspiration for this project, and I remain deeply grateful for his generosity and friendship. In addition to allowing me to use him as a straw man in my written work, he also taught me to ski; both enduring gifts.

I owe my most profound debts to my late father, John Hiscox, my mother, Peg, and my sister, Anna, for all their support and encouragement. And finally, for keeping it all in proper perspective, my warmest thanks go to Verity and Molly.

Michael J. Hiscox

La Jolla, California

PART I

Trade Theory, Factor Mobility, and Political Conflict

CHAPTER ONE

Trade, Distribution, and Factor Mobility

The expansion of international trade has been a powerful engine driving economic growth in Western nations over the last two centuries. At the same time, since trade has had disparate effects on different sets of individuals within each economy, it has provoked an enormous amount of internal political conflict. Although such conflict between winners and losers has been a constant in trade politics over the years, the character of the political coalitions that have fought these battlesthe nature of the societal cleavages that the trade issue has createdappears to have differed significantly across time and place. Most importantly, the extent to which conflict over trade policy has led to clashes between broad class-based coalitions has varied across historical settings.

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