EXPLORING AND SHAPING
INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
EXPLORING AND SHAPING
INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
Barry B. Hughes and Evan E. Hillebrand
First published 2006 by Paradigm Publishers
Published 2016 by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright 2006 by Barry B. Hughes
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Hughes, Barry, 1945
Exploring and shaping international futures / Barry B. Hughes and Evan E.
Hillebrand.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-1-59451-231-5 (hc); 978-1-59451-232-2 (pbk)
ISBN 1-59451-231-0 (hc); ISBN 1-59451-232-9 (pbk) 1. Social prediction
Computer simulation. 2. ForecastingComputer simulation. I. Hillebrand, Evan E.
II. Title.
HM901.H84 2006
303.4901'13dc22
2005027186
Designed and Typeset in New Baskerville by Straight Creek Bookmakers.
ISBN 13: 978-1-59451-231-5 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-1-59451-232-2 (pbk)
To colleagues in the TERRA Project, and especially to Robert Pestel
His reach often exceeded our grasp but strengthened it
Contents
AIDS Acquired Immune Defciency Syndrome
BRICs Brazil, Russia, India, and China
CBR crude birthrate
CDR crude death rate
CFCs chlorofuorocarbons
CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
EU European Union
FAO UN Food and Agricultural Organization
G-7 Group of Seven
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
GDP gross domestic product
GEO global environmental outlook
GIS geographic information system
GNP gross national product
GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project
HDI Human Development Index
ICT information and communications technology
IEA International Energy Agency
IFs International Futures
IGOs intergovernmental organizations
IIASA International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
IMF International Monetary Fund
INGOs international nongovernmental organizations
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPD infectious and parasitical diseases
LDCs Less Developed Countries (contemporary usage often Least)
MDG Millennium Development Goals
MFP multifactor productivity
NACC North Atlantic Cooperation Council
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NGOs nongovernmental organizations
NIC National Intelligence Council
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
OSCE Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe
PPP purchasing power parity
R&D research and development
TFR Total Fertility Rate
UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
USGS U.S. Geological Survey
UV-B Ultraviolet Radiation-B
WEU Western European Union
WHO World Health Organization
WIM World Integrated Model
WTO World Trade Organization
Life holds a wonder of opportunities and pleasures.
Constant challenges limit the development of lifes potential and threaten life itself.
Both statements are true across human lives and within the experience of most individuals. Yet the balance among the opportunities, pleasures, challenges, and threats varies tremendously within individual life spans and across humans. Individual humans and humanity collectively are constantly struggling to shift the balance and improve our futures.
This book immerses you in thinking about global futures and a wide range of the issues and challenges you individually and we collectively face around human development and sustainability. Unlike most books on the future, the volume does not communicate to you a specific vision of global developments. Instead its goal is to assist in the extension and refinement of your own understanding and vision.
The book involves you in exploring alternative futures in two ways. The first is via traditional text. assists you in exploration of trends, and the rest of the book helps you investigate competing causal understandings of global systems. We are, however, part of the causal systems we examine. Thus, a major emphasis in the book is identification of the leverage that we have in shaping the future we prefer.
The second method involves you even more actively in exploration of alternative futuresthrough the use of a highly interactive computer simulation model called International Futures (IFs). IFs is a global model that simulates long-term population, economic, food, energy, environmental, and sociopolitical developments. IFs represents the world in 182 countries and also represents country groupings of your choosing. It allows exploration of near-term futures and also facilitates thinking about the rest of the twenty-first century.
The International Futures home page is at www.ifs.du.edu. At that site you can use an online version of the model, or you can download a version for your own computer. Use online eliminates issues of installation and system compatibility. Such issues should, however, not be significant on Windowsbased computers; downloading and installation can give you a version that runs somewhat faster and that is fully under your control. The Help system associated with both versions of the model is comprehensive with respect to the use of the model and its structure.
IFs has evolved since 1979 as a tool for thinking about the future. This is the fifth generation of the model. An earlier and substantially different version of this volume called International Futures: Choices in the Face of Uncertainty (Hughes 1999) documented the third generation. To our new and continuing associates in use and development of the IFs model, thanks for joining in the exploration. Now please jump into the text and model interaction. Enjoy.
Over most of three decades, countless organizations and individuals have contributed to the enhancement of IFs with financial support and through their feedback and suggestions for enhancement.
With respect to funding and sponsorship of the current generation, Frederick S. Pardee has committed long-term sustaining financial and moral support for the project, and we have designated the system you will use IFs with Pardee in grateful recognition. The U.S. National Intelligence Community (NIC), initially in association with its Project 2020, sponsored the translation of the model to the Web, a huge effort that might never have occurred otherwise. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) adopted and supported IFs as one of its modeling tools for the preparation of the fourth Global Environmental Outlook. In addition, the European Union Center at the University of Michigan has provided support for enhancing the user interface and general ease of use of the IFs system in this fifth generation.
