Ugo Tramballi - Indias Global Challenge: Growth and Leadership in the 21st Century

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Indias Global Challenge

Growth and Leadership in the 21 st Century

edited by Ugo Tramballi and Nicola Missaglia

2019 Ledizioni LediPublishing

Via Alamanni, 11 20141 Milano Italy

www.ledizioni.it

Indias global challenge. Growth and leadership in the 21 st century

Edited by Ugo Tramballi and Nicola Missaglia
First edition: June 2019

The opinions expressed herein are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect the position of ISPI.

Cover image created by Diana Orefice

Print ISBN 9788855260060

ePub ISBN 9788855260084

Pdf ISBN 9788855260107

DOI 10.14672/55260060

ISPI. Via Clerici, 5

20121, Milan

www.ispionline.it

Catalogue and reprints information: www.ledizioni.it

Table of Contents

Paolo Magri

Gautam Chikermane

2.
Bidisha Ganguly

3.
Antonio Armellini

4.
Nicola Missaglia

.
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

6.
Christian Wagner

7.
Claudio Maffioletti

Introduction

India stands tall as a space power! tweeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi just weeks before securing a second, spectacular landslide win in Indias general election in Spring 2019 by an even bigger margin than many had expected. Minutes earlier, he had announced in a rare televised speech that India had just succeeded in shooting down one of its own satellites in low-Earth orbit with a ballistic ground-to-space rocket. Modi also added that the effort had been a fully indigenous one, accomplished entirely by Indians.

Blasting apart a satellite that orbits the globe at 17,000 mph, analysts say, represents a technological breakthrough, one that puts India in the small club of nations with such a capability, along with the United States, China, and Russia. The event established the country as a military space power and confirmed a significant military advance in an area where China want to be a dominant power. Now, its Indias turn, Prime Minister Modi assured the country in a speech arguing for a bigger role for it on the world stage, delivered in Kuala Lumpur back in 2015, one year after his Bharatiya Janata Party stormed to victory in a landslide general election.

Indias explosive economic growth over the last three decades has rapidly made it one of the worlds major emerging powers. Today, the country is at a tipping point both in terms of economic growth and in terms of the opportunities available to its people, who now number far more than one billion. India is the worlds sixth largest economy, with a GDP that has soared from US$270 billion in 1991 to US$2.6 trillion in 2017, and has a projected 2019 GDP growth rate of almost 7.5%, as the country continues and will continue to be a leading engine of world economic growth. India is also the worlds largest democracy which China is not and will soon become the worlds most populous nation, with almost 1.35 billion Indians in thousands of large (and growing) cities, as well as small towns and villages. Looking ahead to 2030, according to World Economic Forum estimates, India will still be a relatively young nation with an average age of 31 years (compared to 40 in the US and 42 in China), and will add more working-age citizens to the worlds workforce than any other country.

The sheer scale of these numbers means that, whether willing or not, Indias actions will have a major global impact in the medium and longer term. Economic growth has transformed it from a bit player on the international stage to a leading actor. Yet there is a widespread feeling throughout the country that India now ages away from the land of beggars and gurus portrayed until recently in the Western media has not yet been given its due on the global stage, despite its size, its achievements and its vibrant democracy. It is no accident that governments in New Delhi have long been urging the international community to recognise Indias rise with a greater global voice at the high table of world powers, and a greater role in global institutions such as the United Nations Security Council. Pressure from India to reform twentieth-century organisations such as the IMF and the World Bank so as to take the growing weight and changing interests of emerging economies into account is another demonstration of the countrys growing confidence.

India is not a revisionist power, though: while clearly becoming less reticent about its global ambitions, New Delhi has reaffirmed its commitment to multilateralism in the form of the Paris Climate Agreement, for instance, where it stood by its responsibilities just as the United States chose to withdraw. India today also plays a more prominent leadership role as a vocal member of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the Group of Twenty (G20). India stands for a democratic and rules-based international order, said its External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj, in a public speech in early 2019. While the prosperity and security of Indians, both at home and abroad, is of paramount importance, she added, self-interest alone does not propel us. This kind of commitment is no small feat at a time when the liberal democratic world order and its multilateral institutions are under threat from a growing number of actors including, alas, their principal architect.

Despite these times of global uncertainty, India is undeniably on the path to becoming a regional and global power. What kind of global power does it want to be? Its commitments have made this fairly clear, although only time will tell whether it will be able to put those commitments into practice in its actions, legislation and response to change.

One thing, however, is sure: no success comes without challenges; and for India challenges abound, old and new, at home and abroad. Long haunted by endemic indigence, India has lifted hundreds of millions out of extreme poverty since 1990; but even now one in five Indians is poor, the country is plagued by massive indeed growing inequality, and low-income states are home to almost half the population. With ten to twelve million new job seekers a year over the next decade, the government faces a huge challenge in terms of job creation, education, and training. New Delhi will also need to ensure a healthy and sustainable future for the people, and the socioeconomic inclusion of rural India in a country where, despite rapid urbanisation, 60% of the population are expected to still be living in rural areas in 2030.

As Indias rise on the world stage progresses, the country also has to face a whole new set of regional and international challenges. In addition to the ever-present tension with neighbouring Pakistan and the international terrorist threat, Chinas growing assertiveness in the region poses a new and increasingly complex problem for India. This is especially true as Beijing steadily expands its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, an area which India has traditionally considered part of its own sphere of influence. Competition with China may have prompted India to build partnerships with Japan, Australia, the USA and others; but New Delhi still struggles with the legacy of its longstanding policy of non-alignment, refuses to make fully-fledged alliances, and is uncertain what to do next in order to better its position in the regional balance of power.

As India and its citizens push ahead to a new place on the international stage, this ISPI Report is ultimately an effort to understand whether the worlds largest democracy is ready to unlock its massive economic, political and human potential to realise its ambitions. Much of the answer to this riddle will depend on Indias ability to tackle and overcome the multidimensional challenges it faces in an era of global disruption, rebalancing of power and multipolar competition.

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