Europes Strategic Future:
From Crisis to Coherence?
Sarah Raine
Europes Strategic Future:
From Crisis to Coherence?
Sarah Raine
The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Arundel House | 6 Temple Place | London | WC2R 2PG | UK
First published June 2019 by Routledge
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2019 The International Institute for Strategic Studies
DIRECTOR-GENERAL AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE Dr John Chipman
EDITOR Dr Nicholas Redman
ASSISTANT EDITOR Clea Gibson
EDITORIAL Vivien Antwi, Jill Lally, Gaynor Roberts, Sam Stocker
COVER/PRODUCTION John Buck, Kelly Verity
COVER IMAGES : Getty
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
ADELPHI series
ISSN 1944-5571
ADELPHI 468469
ISBN 978-0-367-35775-7
Contents
This book is written in response to all those friends, colleagues and intellectual sparring partners who have rolled their eyes at me whenever the role of Europe, and in particular the EU, has crept into our conversations on issues of international security and defence. Its central thesis, that Europes deteriorating security environment is belatedly now informing the development of strategic thought and action on the continent and within its Union in ways that look set to have genuine significance, is not offered naively. The disappointments of what has gone before will continue to inform the developments of what will come tomorrow, but they will not define them. Even as the EU faces critical challenges in other areas, its collective contribution to the continents foreign, security and defence policy interests is evolving, with implications that stretch beyond its borders. This development reflects the changing forms in which challenges of international security and defence present. It also reflects the reality that the continents leading powers are becoming more pragmatic about the forms of cooperation that they pursue to defend interests and cultivate influence, both within EU structures and beyond.
But the story is an evolving one. At the time of publication for example, the ultimate destination of the process that has become known as Brexit remained unclear. Likewise, the nature, programme and priorities of the next European Commission (2019-24) were unknown. Developments will overtake some of the judgements in the book, but the underlying themes will endure. The issues brought by Brexit will not be quickly or easily resolved, whatever the eventual end state. Any new Commission, whatever its composition, will put greater emphasis on the development of the EUs impact and influence on issues of continental, and by extension international, security.
My sincere thanks to all those who have helped me with this book, whether directly and deliberately or in more indirect ways, through thought-provoking conversations and supportive collegiality. I remain forever appreciative of the consistently nurturing and welcoming professional environment that is the IISS. My particular thanks in this instance to Jeff Mazo for his thoughtful editing of the manuscript, to Nick Redman for his ever-insightful input and commitment, and to my former boss, Adam Ward, for first giving me the chance to write this.
AfD Alternative fr Deutschland
AI artificial intelligence
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
AU African Union
AWACS airborne warning and control system
CARD Coordinated Annual Review on Defence
CBRN chemical, biological, radiological and nudear
CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy
CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy
DEVCO Directorate General for International Cooperation and Development
ECB European Central Bank
ECJ European Court of Justice
ECSC European Coal and Steel Community
EDA European Defence Agency
EDC European Defence Community
EDF European Defence Fund
EEA European Economic Area
EEAS European External Action Service
EEC European Economic Community
EII European Intervention Initiative
ENISA European Union Network and Information Security Agency
ENP European Neighbourhood Policy
EPC European Political Cooperation
ESDP European Security and Defence Policy
ESS European Security Strategy
ETAC European Tactical Airlift Centre
EU European Union
EUBAM EU Border Assistance Mission
EUCAP EU Capacity Building Mission
EUFOR EU Force
EUGS EU Global Strategy
EULEX EU Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo
EUTM EU Training Mission
EW early warning
FDI foreign direct investment
FTA free-trade agreement
G7 Group of Seven
HR/VP High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice President of the European Commission
IMF International Monetary Fund
JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
MEP member of the European Parliament
MFF Multiannual Financial Framework
MoD Ministry of Defence
MPCC Military Planning and Conduct Capability
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NDPP NATO Defence Policy Planning
NSA (Bahrain) Naval Support Activity
OCCAR Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation
OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
ODA official development assistance
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OMT outright monetary transactions
OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
PESCO Permanent Structured Cooperation
PiS (Polish) Law and Justice Party
