Christopher J Fettweis - Making Foreign Policy Decisions: Presidential Briefings

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Making Foreign
Policy Decisions

The Presidential Briefings Series
Robert J. Spitzer, Series Editor

The Presidential Briefings Series provides concise and readable introductions to topics of concern to those who have been and will be President of the United States. By approaching their subjects from the vantage point of what a president most needs to know, and what the citizenry most need to know about the presidency, these books are authoritative and significant works on subjects related to the presidency.

Previously published and forthcoming works include:

Political Rhetoric by Mary E. Stuckey

Making Foreign Policy Decisions by Christopher J. Fettweis

Presidential Leadership in an Age of Change by Michael A. Genovese

Packing the Court by Nancy Maveety

PRESIDENTIAL BRIEFINGS

Making Foreign
Policy Decisions

CHRISTOPHER J.
FETTWEIS

First published 2015 by Transaction Publishers

Published 2017 by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 2015 by Taylor & Francis.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Catalog Number: 2015006230

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Fettweis, Christopher J.

Making foreign policy decisions: a presidential briefing book / Christopher J. Fettweis, Tulane University.

pages cm

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-4128-5692-8 -- ISBN 978-1-4128-5659-1

1. United States--Foreign relations. 2. United States--Foreign relations--Decision making. 3. United States--Foreign relations administration. 4. Presidents--United States--Decision making. 5. Presidents--United States--History. I. Title.

E840.F478 2015

327.73--dc23

2015006230

ISBN 13: 978-1-4128-5692-8 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-1-4128-6263-9 (pbk)

this book is for my wife, J. Celeste Lay
she knows why

CONTENTS

It really is true that foreign affairs is the only important issue for a President to handle, isnt it?

John F. Kennedy, 1961

Every four or eight years, a new person takes over the hardest job in the world. While candidates for the position routinely tout a variety of important, qualifying experiences, no training can really prepare anyone to be president of the United States. Members of Congress, no matter how senior, do not run anything like the massive bureaucracy of the Executive Branch; governors manage state houses but do not have to worry about Vladimir Putin, OPEC or nuclear weapons; even Vice Presidents, although they see the job up close, are not weighed down by the burden of decision. No previous experience can possibly replicate the pressures of the Oval Office. New occupants of the White House will always need all the help and advice they can get.

It usually does not take long for those new occupants to realize that the American people hold their presidents responsible for two things: foreign policy and the performance of the economy. For the latter, this is not particularly fair, since the president has little direct influence over the business cycle and the economy in general. Regarding foreign policy, however, the practice of assigning responsibility to the White House is fully justified. In domestic affairs our constitutional system of checks and balances is still in firmly in place, requiring presidents to share power with the legislative branch. When it comes to foreign affairs, however, the Congress has faded into the background over time, leaving the president in charge. President Bush was sometimes chided for his insistence that he was the decider, but he was also correct. It is with some justification that presidents take credit for successes and shoulder blame when things go wrong.

And things do seem to go wrong on a regular basis. Foreign policy blunders, both large and small, have been a constant feature of the modern presidency, from the Bay of Pigs through Vietnam to Iraq. Is there anything that can be done to minimize the chances of their repetition and improve the quality of the foreign-policy decisions that come out of the White House? Can presidents learn from the experience of their predecessors, both good and bad?

Fortunately for the would-be commander-in-chief, help is available. It comes from multiple academic fieldspolitical science, history, psychology, economics, sociology, and business, to name a fewwhich, when brought together, can explain how to improve foreign policy decision making. While there is no magic formula that can guarantee successful outcomes, with a little understanding of the forces that tend to drive mistakes, future presidents could at least do better than those of the past. Policymaking will never be perfect as long as it is done by people; we can, however, offer some ideas to raise the rather low bar set in recent years.

A Terrible Idea, Ended Well

When it comes to bad presidential decisions, few approach the mind-boggling stupidity of the Bay of Pigs. The invasion of Cuba by a ragtag collection of US-trained exiles in April 1961 was one of the oddest moments of the Cold War, an unforced error that was obviously doomed from the start. The misadventure is a good place to begin a discussion of bad decision makingand, somewhat counterintuitively, of good response to errors in judgment. The fact that the Bay of Pigs had no lasting domestic or international consequences ought to suggest that there is more to learn from it than may at first appear.

When John Kennedy entered the White House, he inherited a plan to unseat Cuban president Fidel Castro that had been developed by his predecessor. The new president was assured that if he gave the go-ahead to allow a group of exiles to invade the island, the Cuban people would rise and rid themselves of their increasingly left-leaning dictator. All they needed was encouragement, some troops behind whom to rally, and a show of resolve from Washington. The plan called for the invaders to secure a section of the country and set up a provisional government, which would immediately be recognized by the United States as the legitimate government of Cuba. People would rally toward their cause, and Castros regime would quickly collapse.

On paper, it all seemed fairly straightforward. In retrospect, however, there were some fairly significant warning signs that should have tipped off President Kennedy to the idea that the operation might not go as smoothly as his advisors promised it would:

• First and foremost, the Cubans were well aware that an invasion was coming. There was no hope of surprise because the impending invasion was hardly a secret. Anti-Castro Units Trained to Fight at Florida Bases, proclaimed a headline on the front-page of the

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